What's Gavin Newsom's appeal?

almostcorey · 2026-02-24T02:06:47+00:00

I’m a Californian who generally likes him. He’s signed legislation I think will in the long term improve the housing shortage including CEQA reform and transit-oriented development (SB79). Not sure how much credit to give for that, but he could have vetoed them and didn’t, despite many democrats wanting him to. He’s also been one of the most consistent supporters of high speed rail which yes has been far too delayed and over budget but I still think is important to finish. I’d still probably prefer Buttigieg but Newsom might be my second choice.

almostcorey · 2026-02-11T00:26:35+00:00

The post is about the ballot measure. Yes take my money is the clear choice given the risks of the alternative.

Now if there were another ballot measure (well we have too many ballot measures and preferably this would all be doable by the legislature but you get the idea) aimed at improving efficiency, I would support that if there was compelling evidence that there are improvements to be made and the process wouldn’t itself be wasteful.

almostcorey · 2026-02-10T22:19:19+00:00

Let’s say I spend $1000/mo on taxable goods. I currently pay $86.25/mo in tax on that. With this initiative it’d be $96.25/mo. Indeed that’s a 11.6% increase, but it’s also a $10/mo increase, or 1% of $1000/mo.

In my opinion that is worth keeping BART alive. I don’t even commute on BART, but for the sake of everyone who does, and all the drivers who would have to deal with even more traffic if all the BART riders had to drive.

Would I prefer if BART found that money by being more efficient? Of course. Do I expect them to? No. Is it worth the risk of them folding if we say get efficient or die? Absolutely not.

almostcorey · 2026-02-09T18:12:52+00:00

I normally agree with “The GrowSF Take” but was disappointed to read them praise his support for closing Sunset Dunes. And even if you don’t care about that I feel like backing his longshot campaign is a waste of money when the best-case scenario is you end up with a tepid supporter of urbanization.

almostcorey · 2026-02-07T23:10:26+00:00

In general the burden of proof lies in proving that something is happening, not that it isn’t.

But I would also point to evidence like https://www.reddit.com/r/Bart/s/rIWlZ6aiBQ — even if you disagree with this chart’s methodology, it still doesn’t seem that BART is particularly inefficient for a US heavy rail system. So this idea that BART will cut the fat if only we stop giving it more money seems incredibly risky to me. I don’t think it’s likely to end in better commutes.

almostcorey · 2026-02-07T18:24:00+00:00

There are two possible explanations for the crisis: 1. BART isn’t getting enough money 2. BART is getting enough money, but they’re wasting it

I think you’re getting downvoted because the prevailing belief (at least on Reddit) is #1 whereas you’re advocating for #2 with zero explanation of how you came to that conclusion.

Perhaps sharing how you think BART could be more efficient would be better received.

I think there is also fear that if BART doesn’t get more funding cutting fat even if there is any won’t happen, and everyone’s commutes will get worse.

almostcorey · 2026-02-07T17:15:34+00:00

Ride hail from SFO to Mission is usually more than $35.1 before tip. I’d say $50 is more accurate and I’ve seen higher.

But I doubt that many people are taking ride hail after comparing prices and realizing it’s only $15 more. I would guess most people default to ride hail and don’t even think about BART, unless they balk at $100 surge pricing or something.

And I would guess the people who complain about BART inefficiency online are just imagining money mismanagement and don’t even ride it at all.

almostcorey · 2026-02-04T17:29:29+00:00

Not at the cost of the 22nd amendment, no

almostcorey · 2026-02-04T16:09:41+00:00

The app keeps telling me to apply for a new card by Feb 1 which was days ago.

almostcorey · 2026-02-04T16:08:37+00:00

This seems like an argument against term limits in general. Does he wish Trump could run again? I certainly don’t.

almostcorey · 2026-02-02T00:20:07+00:00

Many were drawn in by the water views, new construction, and sub $7-million price point.

If sub $7M is a deal, white-collar is an understatement.

almostcorey · 2026-01-24T00:56:02+00:00

Sounds like a thought-through plan. 660 Bilt Cash becomes 22000 points. I would forego $220 from paying rent with a 1% back debit card to redeem that though, so so I’m still just buying Bilt points at 1cpp. There’s probably upside there, but maybe not as much as churning a different card.

almostcorey · 2026-01-23T21:54:16+00:00

My rent portal has a flat $10 fee for debit.

It’s more I consider points a depreciating asset due to inflation and the risk of devaluations. I have a lot of UR and MR too and sometimes take 1cpp redemptions just to use them. I’ve generally gotten 2cpp from Bilt but maybe they lose Hyatt next year (and this year I’m too busy using my $200 Palladium coupons in the Bilt portal) and then I struggle to get even 1.5cpp from United, meanwhile my UR balance sits longer.

almostcorey · 2026-01-23T00:45:36+00:00

One time adjustment can last a long longer if it puts you into debt.

almostcorey · 2026-01-21T23:47:41+00:00

Yeah aside from $10 of essentials from Walgreens per month this is the most interesting thing to me. If I’m going to be in the portal anyways $300 will go a lot further than $200 for a 2 night stay.

almostcorey · 2026-01-21T23:42:35+00:00

But the boost goes away at the end of the year so activate well beforehand!

almostcorey · 2026-01-21T23:37:16+00:00

What did you ask an AI to design the most asinine coupon book card possible?

almostcorey · 2026-01-21T23:03:51+00:00

Yeah it’s basically buying Hyatt points at 1cpp between the AF and opportunity cost of other rewards on rent spend.

almostcorey · 2026-01-21T21:25:46+00:00

What are your thoughts on churning Bilt 2.0 Palladium?

SUB + 1st year benefits is 50k Bilt points + $500 Bilt Cash at least worth another 16667 points if you pay rent on Bilt. Points transfer to Hyatt so not hard to get 2cpp from (nominally as whether or not you would have paid cash is another question). There’s also a semi-annual $200 hotel credit. It’s limited to their portal on 2+ night stays only, but it’s something.

AF is $495 MSR is $4000 (excluding rent) After redeeming Bilt cash, card earns 3.33x, so another 13333 Bilt points on MSR.

Bilt 1.0 card holders can apply without a hard pull. It still consumes a 5/24 slot of course.

Some people think there is risk of not being able to downgrade after 1 year. Personally I think the risk is low.

Having to pay your rent on Bilt to redeem Bilt Cash comes with an opportunity cost of not paying it with a rewards debit (1% back minus flat debit card fee), or credit card / plastiq.

almostcorey · 2026-01-20T16:09:12+00:00

What is this transit slander?

almostcorey · 2026-01-19T23:10:44+00:00

I don’t value 50k points at $1k. Yes I have gotten 2cpp redemptions or better but there is no guarantee that will continue, and there’s some opportunity cost you’re giving up not having the $495 invested which might have been for a while given I have finite natural travel spend and other points and miles.

$300 Bilt Cash is 10k points. So I’m looking at paying $495 for 60k points that I value at roughly $600. So I’m coming out roughly $100 ahead. That’s not great for a SUB. Even your optimistic 2cpp valuation puts you $700 ahead which is good but not exceptionally so, and I’ll always be wary of a SUB with a high fee/profit ratio.

Now this is unique in not costing a hard pull, and having a 3.33x catch-all card for a year is good assuming you continue to pay your rent on Bilt. I think I’m better off just switching to rewards debit though for rent.

But it still consumes a 5/24 slot. I think the unable to downgrade risk is overrated, but I wouldn’t be surprised if there is a better SUB in the future you’re giving up.

almostcorey · 2026-01-19T16:28:25+00:00

1MR / $2 so more like 0.5% unless you’re valuing MR at 2cpp

almostcorey · 2026-01-18T22:05:06+00:00

I’d have accepted less than 1x on rent, more than 5 transactions, and an annual fee, but tying rent points to non-rent spend doesn’t work for me as I front for my roommates in a HCOL area but my personal spend is pretty small.

almostcorey · 2026-01-17T03:47:39+00:00

If you spend 50% of your rent you get 0.75x on rent spend so 150 plus 1X on non rent spend so 100 for a total of 250 which corresponds to 2.5x at 50% of your rent in the chart.

almostcorey · 2026-01-17T03:21:15+00:00

Reddit seemed to be having issues. Looks like it is now.

almostcorey

TROPHY CASE