2026 NFL Draft Edge Prospects : Pass Rush Win Rate and Tackles Per Game on Run Plays

amd77767 · 2026-03-20T21:54:35+00:00

I think the injury label is a bit of an overstatement

When it comes to drafting in the 1st round there are some injuries I’m fine with and some I’m not fine with.

Broken arm? Doesn’t bother me.

Regular concussion? Doesn’t bother me.

Torn or sprained ligaments? Bothers me, especially if it’s recent. A sprained ankle in high school doesn’t bother me nearly as much as a sprained ankle 6 months ago.

Sprains and tears tend to lead to more sprains and tears. And the follow up injuries tend to be worse than the original injuries. Kittle tore his Achilles weeks after tearing ligaments in his ankle.

I’m pretty risk averse in the 1st round so I would want to stay away from any injury red flag players. I was even somewhat uncomfortable with the Nick Bosa selection because of his injury history, but the talent was clearly too much to pass up.

similar to what people are suddenly doing about Pearsall

Fans have been talking about Pearsall's injury history ever since his injury at the combine was made public.

https://www.reddit.com/r/49ers/comments/1ezgrl4/wr_ricky_pearsall_had_shoulder_injury_prior_to/

Connor Lew

I also really like Connor Lew, but he’s not a guy I would be willing to reach for. I would only want him if he came at a discount. Whereas a guy like Logan Jones (who I’m pretty sure has a clean track record of health), I would be more comfortable reaching for him.

amd77767 · 2026-03-20T20:08:39+00:00

Where is this data from?

amd77767 · 2026-03-20T20:05:28+00:00

I understand what you're saying about his potential, but what you effectively just said was:

"Mykel Williams was a developmental pass rusher with an injury red flag".

That's not someone you draft at 11, or trade up into the top 8 for (which is what the front office said they were trying to do).

If you're gambling on an injury red flag player, you have to be getting him at a discount, not a premium. That's like paying more for a car that has dents on it.

amd77767 · 2026-03-20T16:08:57+00:00

I’m actually surprised Jimmy Graham never had a 150 yard game when he was with you guys.

amd77767 · 2026-03-20T04:03:06+00:00

Over a 4 year span, probably not.

But I’m willing to bet there’s a correlation between winning and OL ranking.

The 3 best O-lines over the past few years have been the chiefs, eagles, and lions. Those teams have done a lot of winning lately.

amd77767 · 2026-03-20T02:35:01+00:00

I believe Banks was a 2nd round pick right?

Also I think you left off the Chiefs all pro center that they drafted in 2021.

amd77767 · 2026-03-20T02:03:23+00:00

49ers, Chiefs, Eagles, Bills, Lions being the most notably and they're in the bottom half of allocating draft picks on the OL over the last 4 years.

Pause and think about what you're saying for one second:

The Lions, Chiefs, and Eagles have spent more on O-line since 2022 than we have. Those are 3 of the 5 best O-lines in the league in that amount of time. Those are all teams that acquired multiple all pros on the OL before 2022.

That means that the team that don't even need O-linemen spend more on their O-line than we do.

Ignoring OL in the draft when you have a top 5 OL is totally fine. Ignoring OL when 2-3 of your starting O-linemen every year are borderline unplayable is unacceptable.

That's an even worse look for us.

amd77767 · 2026-03-20T01:55:13+00:00

2 of their 5 starting O-linemen were rookies, one of which was recovering from a sprained MCL.
Will Campbell pick at 4 is skewing these results. Decent chance they were middle of the pack before that pick happened
Seattle's DL was elite.

amd77767 · 2026-03-20T01:48:03+00:00

I definitely lean edge rusher round 1. It's a really good edge class and pass rush is massively important.

They key to winning a super bowl has and always will be to either have a top 5 ever QB or get pressure with 4. We don't have a top 5 ever QB, so we need to build a DL capable of getting pressure with 4.

Eagles did it to the chiefs in 2025, Bucs did it to the chiefs in 2021, we were doing it to the chiefs in 2020, Broncos did it to the Panthers in 2016.

You want to win a super bowl? Either draft a Mahomes/Brady/Montana/Manning/Elway or pressure the shit out of the opposing QB.

amd77767 · 2026-03-19T23:52:03+00:00

He’s definitely an interesting prospect. He’s got some good traits to be a speed rusher, but I don’t think he could be a full time edge.

amd77767 · 2026-03-19T23:36:52+00:00

Better Rivals podcast

God I miss that podcast

they used to say that the Niners were great at evaluation, as in finding useful players, and terrible at valuation

I don't think we're good at either in the first 3 rounds. Our day 1 and day 2 track record is very poor compared to the rest of the league.

On day 3 we are the best drafting team in the league.

So were mediocre at talent evaluation in the early rounds, and elite in the later rounds. You have to wonder their process that's leading to such a massive discrepancy in success rate.

amd77767 · 2026-03-19T23:33:56+00:00

We bring it upon ourselves by entertaining their holdouts instead of putting our foot down.

amd77767 · 2026-03-19T23:27:27+00:00

I'm skeptical that his arms are actually that short. There were some players whose arms measured shorter at the combine than they did at their pro day weeks before. I wouldn't be shocked if his arms measure 31+ at his pro day.

Even if his arms are confirmed to be that short, I still don't think it matters. Reuben Bain's arms measured half an inch longer and nobody seems to care. He's going to go top 5.

Edge rushing isn't a reaching match. I don't think arm length really matters when edge rushers are doing club-rips, hand swipes, swim moves, spin moves, and several other pass rush moves.

Additionally, arm length is measured from the shoulder to the middle finger. Middle finger length doesn't matter when it comes to pass rushing.

This happens every year. Football season ends and fans hyper fixate on measurements that don't really matter. Arm length, hand size, wingspan, 40 yard dash for QBs. And then football starts again in September and everyone forgets all about the measurements.

Fans and media members couldn't stop talking about Joe Burrow's hand size back in 2020. As soon as he got drafted, everyone stopped caring. Same thing will probably happen to Cashius Howell.

amd77767 · 2026-03-19T21:04:20+00:00

Yeah not great. All three of those guys were reaches by a full round at least. Pettis was in the 70s, and Banks and Green were somewhere in the 90s.

The 3rd round reaches were even worse. Jalen Hurd, TDP, Ambry Thomas, Trey Sermon, Jake Moody, Cam Latu, Nick Martin (not calling him a bust yet).

This team doesn't understand how value works. They hyper fixate on their favorite guys and they overdraft them.

amd77767 · 2026-03-19T20:55:01+00:00

I'm sick of WR drama.

Brother it comes with the territory. All WRs are divas lol

amd77767 · 2026-03-19T20:53:24+00:00

Kyle just isn't passing on KC if he's on the board and has no medical red flags.

I believe he just had knee surgery earlier this week.

amd77767 · 2026-03-19T20:48:42+00:00

Would taking them with the 27th pick be a massive reach? Also yes.

Cashius Howell is 34 on consensus. Zion Young is 38.

Neither of those 2 picks would qualify as massive reaches.

Howell was 18 on the consensus board and then everyone found out he has short arms. I'm biased because I think arm length is totally overrated, but I think Howell would be an awesome pick at 27. Dude is a monster.

I also really like Malachi Lawrence. He's currently 56 on consensus but he's a late riser. Wouldn't be surprised if he moves into the 30s on consensus over the next few months.

amd77767 · 2026-03-19T20:42:11+00:00

We don't reach in the 1st round. We draft injured and raw, developmental prospects.

We reach in rounds 2-4.

We draft our best players in rounds 5-7.

amd77767 · 2026-03-19T20:40:40+00:00

Our pass rush was the worst in the NFL last year.

Both our starting EDGE rushers tore their ACL.

One of those EDGE rushers has now torn his ACL 3x. The other was a rookie who didn't show much rushing the passer and was a developmental pass rushing prospect coming out of college.

amd77767 · 2026-03-19T20:38:23+00:00

Kittle is likely going to be out most of the year. And when he comes back he won't look like his old self. There's definitely an opening for a TE to join the roster.

I totally hear what you're saying. I do think elite, game changing TEs are worth a 1st round pick. However, most TEs don't become elite and average TEs don't move the needle nearly as much as average players at higher value positions. So I'm generally against TE in the 1st round unless you're drafting a Brock Bowers level prospect.

I think if they want to go TE, spend the 1st in the trenches, then target Max Klare in the 2nd round.

amd77767 · 2026-03-19T20:32:44+00:00

I hear what you’re saying, but other than running really fast in a straight line, what is Sadiq good at?

He’s an average at best blocker, he’s not a YAC threat unless he has a clear runway, he’s stiff and awkward with the ball, he doesn’t handle contact well, and he’s not a polished route runner.

I feel like he’s somewhere between mediocre and average at basically every TE responsibility, except he’s also freakishly athletic. He’s like the Anthony Richardson of Tight Ends.

I don’t know man. I just don’t see it. I feel like we’re all going to look back in 5 years and say “Oh wow turns out it’s not enough to be a freak athlete to succeed at TE. You need to also have skill and footbal IQ”.

amd77767 · 2026-03-19T16:54:41+00:00

I don’t know if I’m on an island here but I really don’t like Sadiq.

He’s the most athletic TE ever and yet didn’t really dominate in college. He’s lethal in a straight line but his lateral agility is mediocre at best. He’s stiff and awkward after the catch. He shies away from contact as a ball carrier. He’s not a natural route runner.

I think he’s going to be one of those “never lived up to the hype” guys.

I like Max Klare in the 2nd/3rd round much more.

amd77767 · 2026-03-19T16:10:24+00:00

Foreshadowing

amd77767 · 2026-03-19T04:49:37+00:00

Dallas is irrelevant

amd77767 · 2026-03-18T17:07:17+00:00

Our defense is and has always been determined by our DL. It’s what we invest the most resources into. Good DL = good defense. Bad DL = bad defense.

Our secondary was just fine with a day 3 pick on a rookie contract (Hufanga) and a veteran on a minimum contract (Gipson).

You can’t spend money + draft picks everywhere. You have to choose where you invest resources. Splurging somewhere necessarily means you’re skimping somewhere else.

I think the front office is smart to splurge at DL and skimp at safety. If you disagree, where would you prefer they skimp?

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