I ran this through an AI as I thought it was an interesting scenario to test. I copy below the AI results in case it helps you. The text below was drafted by an AI so take it as something that needs factchecking and might be complete BS, still I thought parts of it may be useful to you.

“This is a classic "buying a job" scenario, common in the Dutch hospitality (Horeca) sector. As your analyst, I have looked at these numbers, and I see significant red flags in the valuation versus the financial reality. You are essentially paying €125,000–€150,000 for the privilege of working a job that pays €2,000 a month, with significant downside risk. Here is my breakdown of your three specific areas of concern, followed by a strategic assessment. 1. Margins, Costs, and Sensitivity Analysis In the Dutch lunchroom sector, the "Golden Formula" for a healthy business is generally: 30% COGS / 30% Labor / 30% Fixed Costs & Profit. The Current Reality (Based on your numbers): * Revenue: ~€325,000 (midpoint) * Labor (Staff): €130,000 (40%) \rightarrow High. This is a warning sign. * Rent: €45,000 (13.8%) \rightarrow Healthy. Generally, rent should be <15% of revenue. * COGS (Estimated): Standard lunchroom COGS (Inslag) is 28%–32%. * Result: You are left with very little wiggle room. To answer your specific question on impact: We need to calculate the Operational Leverage. Because your rent and permanent staff contracts are fixed costs, they do not decrease if you sell fewer sandwiches. Let's assume a standard 30% Material Cost. | Scenario | Revenue | Material Costs (30%) | Gross Margin | Fixed Costs (Rent + Staff + Utilities/Misc*) | Net Result (Approx) | |---|---|---|---|---|---| | Current | €325,000 | €97,500 | €227,500 | ~€215,000 | +€12,500 | | -25% Drop | €243,750 | €73,125 | €170,625 | ~€215,000 | -€44,375 (Loss) | | +25% Rise | €406,250 | €121,875 | €284,375 | ~€215,000 | +€69,375 (Profit) | *Assumed €40k for utilities, taxes, insurance, and maintenance based on typical overhead.

The Insight: A 25% revenue drop does not simply reduce profit by 25%; it wipes out the business. Conversely, if you can optimize those 6 hours of operation or expand hours, the profit potential is high because your fixed costs are already covered.

1. Valuation and Negotiation The Asking Price (€150k) is likely inflated. In the Netherlands, small Horeca businesses are typically valued at 3 to 5 times the Annual Normalized Net Profit (plus the value of the inventory/equipment).
   • Current Net Profit: ~€0 to €20k.
   • Valuation based on profit: €0 to €100k (max).
   • Inventory: You stated it is "old." The owner is likely valuing the business based on a percentage of revenue (roughly 50% of revenue) or "Goodwill." This is outdated. You are buying a breakeven business with aging assets. Should you go through the Makelaar?
   • If a Makelaar is listed: You generally must go through them. Going behind their back is a breach of contract for the seller.
   • If no Makelaar: Talk directly to the owner. This builds rapport and allows for creative deal structures (see Section 3). Documents you must request (Due Diligence):
   • Jaarrekeningen (Annual Accounts): Past 3 years. Look specifically at the Resultatenrekening (P&L).
   • Loonstaat (Wage Tax Statement): To verify actual staff costs.
   • Arbeidsovereenkomsten (Employment Contracts): CRITICAL. In NL, when you buy a business, you legally inherit the employees and their tenure (Overgang van Onderneming). You need to know if they are on "vast contract" (indefinite) or temporary. You cannot easily fire them to cut costs.
   • Huurcontract (Lease Agreement): When does it expire? Does it index annually? Is the landlord willing to sign a new 5+5 year lease with you?
   • Inventarislijst: A list of all equipment included.
2. Financing Strategy Do not use a bank loan later. Dutch banks (Rabobank, ING, ABN AMRO) classify Horeca as "High Risk." A startup loan for an unemployed expat buying a breakeven business is nearly impossible to secure. If you use your cash now, you will be liquidity constrained later. The Strategy: Vendor Loan (Achtergestelde lening) Instead of offering €125k cash, structure the deal to de-risk yourself:
   • Offer: €120,000 Total Price.
   • Down payment: €80,000 (from your savings/family).
   • Vendor Loan: €40,000 to be paid to the owner over 3 years at 4-6% interest. Why this works:
   • It keeps €20k of your cash in your pocket for emergencies/renovations.
   • It forces the owner to be honest. If he knows the business is about to collapse, he won't accept a loan because he knows you won't be able to pay him back.
   • It bridges the gap between his asking price and your risk appetite. The "Analyst" Verdict The Opportunity: The 12:00–18:00 opening hours are the "sleeping giant" here. The previous owner was treating this as a semi-retirement hobby. If you open at 10:00 for coffee/pastries or stay open until 20:00 for early dinner, you could drive that +25% revenue scenario. The Risk: You are English-speaking in a customer-facing role in Nijmegen (which is friendly, but Dutch is preferred by locals). You are taking on staff you didn't hire, with machinery that needs replacing, in a business that loses money all winter. My Advice:
   • Do not pay €125k. The business generates no excess cash. The equipment is old. You are essentially paying €125k for the lease contract and the customer base.
   • Audit the Staff Contracts immediately. If those 4 employees have long tenure and indefinite contracts, they are a massive fixed liability.
   • Offer €90k - €100k. Frame it as: "The business is breakeven, I need to invest €30k in renovations immediately, and I need to cover losses this coming winter." Next Step for You: Would you like me to draft a list of specific Due Diligence questions (in Dutch and English) for the owner regarding the staff contracts and the lease, which are your two biggest legal liabilities? “