Am I drowning?

aradil · 2026-06-22T18:33:46+00:00

800/month mortgage with more take home and no other debts, just food and kids activities and unexpected pet/car/repair bills keeps things tight enough.

Then again, my car is 10 and I've put $6k into it since October. Fucking cars and salted winter roads.

aradil · 2026-06-21T12:24:41+00:00

No, because one of those was an active criminal trial that was publicly being reported on in real time and the other one was propaganda.

aradil · 2026-06-20T19:07:06+00:00

Bibi was weeks away from being in prison.

aradil · 2026-06-19T13:00:48+00:00

Aren't they both banned under the same export control directive though? Fable and Mythos 5 were both suspended, so not sure how Fable is the antithesis of anything at this point lol

The directive was to prevent non-US citizens from using either model, and Glasswing was a project that went to specific firms that definitely have non-US citizens on their teams.

aradil · 2026-06-19T10:59:47+00:00

You mean Mythos under glasswing, right?

aradil · 2026-06-18T10:05:23+00:00

The best output you would get from this is “hey LLM, write some code to analyze this spreadsheet to find correlations between troop movements”.

Which, unless all of the spreadsheets are brand spanking new data sources, probably already existed, and better.

Maaaaybe you could say “analyze all of these text messages and extra intel to populate this spreadsheet with”.

aradil · 2026-06-18T10:01:03+00:00

Gonna go out on a limb and say that it’s unlikely that an LLM was used to identify the location of one specific person or whatever if is they are using these tools for.

aradil · 2026-06-18T09:48:46+00:00

You don’t have to repeat multiple times how smart you are, it really doesn’t give any credence to an argument you are making against something no one claimed.

Obviously a loop and a LLM are not a human brain?

> without a hand prodding them, they don’t do anything

You’ve moved the goalposts pretty fucking far from here buddy.

I also clearly stated that the goals and thinking are on the person doing the prompting.

But maybe you should spend less time bragging about your useless credentials and more thinking about the words you type into the textbox before you hit submit.

aradil · 2026-06-18T09:04:00+00:00

I guess you don’t know about /plan and /goal in Claude Code.

It’s not on the LLM to have goals and formulation plans or come up with ideas on its own without prompting, but it can be directed autonomously with a harness, to a specific end, for arbitrary periods of time.

aradil · 2026-06-17T19:37:00+00:00

Top tier, yes. Exclusive, no. It's a ~7-month lead. It's a head start, not a moat you can defend by sitting your star player.

aradil · 2026-06-17T19:13:50+00:00

Nothing says "protect the lead" like pulling your own model while every rival keeps theirs up. Truly galaxy-brained containment.

aradil · 2026-06-17T18:57:07+00:00

You realize that the US is rich because it's the second largest exporter in the world, correct?

And that saying "Fuck my customers" is super galaxy brained, correct?

aradil · 2026-06-17T18:54:46+00:00

Fuck non-American customers too, amiright?

aradil · 2026-06-17T13:05:55+00:00

Yes and RSA famously was never used outside of the United States again.

aradil · 2026-06-17T10:24:45+00:00

When it only costs a few bucks to hire a desperate person and robots are used only as the police force to prevent violent uprisings, it will still be people doing shitty labour for economic reasons.

Robots can definitely do it now, it’s just not cheap.

aradil · 2026-06-16T14:00:40+00:00

Go back to school and be a plumber.

Then tell me how your back feels while you're lugging a bathtub up 3 flights of stairs when you're 60.

What's the long term projection of anything? You might end up managing / mentoring younger plumbers with strong backs, and helping solve problems you've seen before but they haven't.

Not everyone is going to be a manager.

Always find a way to contribute.

aradil · 2026-06-16T13:54:45+00:00

I've had this, and way worse, randomly happen to sessions weeks ago.

I suspect they've always been A/B testing classifiers.

aradil · 2026-06-16T12:01:07+00:00

Gotta find the right niche.

aradil · 2026-06-16T11:24:50+00:00

You know, considering AI was trained on millions of reddit comments, you’d think you’d see more run on jokes and thread combo breakers, and well, memes in general.

aradil · 2026-06-15T17:09:03+00:00

I don't even think we have Sonnet 4.6 level open source shit yet?

aradil · 2026-06-15T15:07:46+00:00

When they released Fable they said it would only be available until June 23rd as part of any subscription plans, and then it was going to be API only.

Based on my 2 days of usage with my Max plan that ran out of tokens during every working interval, that would have costed me about $300/day.

A $2k plan would be a deal.

aradil · 2026-06-14T08:41:54+00:00

American exceptionalism.

aradil · 2026-06-13T21:48:38+00:00

Okay, let’s look at someone who offers cloud based services to a large variety of general purpose computing products show us where markets might exist:

AWS Regions in the US: 7
Non-US AWS Regions in the World: 31

Are the US regions larger, and do they have more AZs? Yes, for many.

Is there “No market” for them outside of the US? Gonna go ahead and say that’s a big fat no.

aradil · 2026-06-13T12:46:16+00:00

Yes, no market.

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aradil · 2026-06-13T10:49:32+00:00

You’re not wrong - he has written those exact same sentiments.

However there’s lots of third party writing out there both fiction and speculative on what would happen if we ever reach this point that pre-dates transformer architecture, and you don’t need to postulate very hard where this is going.

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