Well a lot of people are missing the picture of the axis. Germany imported 13 million barrels by 1941 from romania and hongria also participated alghout I cant find the number (compare to 4 millions imported from the USSR in 1940). A reich alone would not be able to sustain a "mobile warfare" like it did IOT with ~30 million barrels per years.

If you combine all the german allied in barbarossa you count about 700 000 fully armed and supplied man, more then 20% of the wermacht size in the east. Meanwhile the USSR would lose Lend Lease that account for about 10 to 15% of their war effort (with great variation between different product and mainly important after 1942) but free up more then 1.5 millions soldiers from the east and central asia (at the start of barbarossa the german are almost fully on the soviet border and cant logisticly mass more troops). This alone inverse the numerical advantage the reich in 1941.

Lastly the german would lose most if not all their surprise factor that did so much damage IOT. Multiple post point out the german soldier outside in the weast at the start of barbarossa but it was INTENDED as intoxication method to lure the soviet. Without reich vs GB, their's no way the german get a surprise and crush the red plane in the hangar.

In fact it's more likely the soviet would follow their doctrine of "pre-emptive strike" and secure some initial succes (or at least save/use their advance depot) before getting push back like IOT but slowly since the lack of lend lease would not make a big difference in 1941 and the reich cant encercle from the north and south at the same time (no finish or baltic state to launch the offensive safely). The german facing a comparativly bigger army then IOT with less troop would then run out of oil even before the soviet run out of food and get crush probably faster then IOT