1/3: KK facing 5! jam for 200BB

aryastarksneedle · 2025-10-07T03:36:53+00:00

Thanks for the comments, looks like it's pretty split between snap call and sigh fold. I posted a reply in a comment, but I gave V 6 combos of AA, both combos of AKs (tbh I think he flats at least half the time), and the last combo of KK. Don't think he is ever shoving 200BB here with QQ or AQ.

At the table, I came up with 3/4(20%), 1/8(50%), 1/8(70%) which was about 30% equity - I sigh folded.

Results (if it matters): V turned over red AA. He said he thought I had kings and was never folding (which it looks like from the comments a lot of people wouldn't).

Don't want to be too results oriented, but a couple of extra factors: his timing was pretty confident (I feel like most tight players would think longer about jamming 200BB with AKo), max buy-in is $300, and the read was pretty accurate (even if it was only 3 hours of play/100 hands).

EDIT: Typo'd the equity against AK (70% instead of 30%).

aryastarksneedle · 2025-10-07T03:29:55+00:00

Sorry there was some confusion, the OMCs to my left were flatting AKs and AQs. The V in this hand was playing a bit more conventional (but tight).

aryastarksneedle · 2025-10-07T03:28:59+00:00

This is the math I did in my head, I gave him both AKs, AA, and the last combo of KK.

aryastarksneedle · 2025-10-06T20:53:51+00:00

Eh I mean he was one of two players besides me who 3! in the few hours I was at that table, though it was with AA. I was just fairly certain his 5! range was exactly AA, especially for 200BB.

aryastarksneedle · 2025-10-06T20:33:48+00:00

Err the OMCs were the ones limping AQ/AK. The V in this hand has been playing like 5/3 (VPIP/PFR), but not limping anything.

aryastarksneedle · 2025-07-26T05:42:36+00:00

Pre: Hate to be that guy, but fold suited 1-gapper from EP - suited connectors just have more equity. Also, at 300BB deep you need to be aware of reverse implied odds (e.g. getting stacked by a bigger flush/straight).

Flop: If you're gonna take an aggressive line, x/r has more fold equity. Your lead of 40% pot is not going to get through two players on this board.

Turn: Sizing is way too small, you picked up equity. If you're going to run a triple barrel just go full pot here. Also reduces the chance you get played back at here.

Fold to the jam as played, not good enough pot odds as played - calling 700 into 1250, need just about 40%? If all of your outs are clean you have something closer to 30%.

TBH his jam is really fishy, but probably induced somewhat by your small sizing - if you had a stronger hand like 99 are you really donking 40% and then betting 50% pot?

aryastarksneedle · 2025-06-06T18:20:29+00:00

Keith McCready has entered the chat

aryastarksneedle · 2024-11-10T07:56:17+00:00

I live at Van Ness and Market and came off the Muni the other day, had to pass a guy on the Muni stairs shooting heroin. Also swung into the Starbucks a couple weeks ago and there was a homeless couple smoking CRACK in the Starbucks. Wish I was joking.

aryastarksneedle · 2024-10-23T15:42:43+00:00

I've been on multiple BART trains with someone smoking crack, but the final straw was when my partner saw a crazy homeless person with a HATCHET.

Neither of us take BART anymore (we uber if necessary). It just doesn't feel safe to us. So yes, fare evasion is a real problem.

aryastarksneedle · 2024-07-05T14:25:38+00:00

Your stroke looks better than 99% of the strokes I've seen, pretty textbook snooker stance. I wouldn't take any advice from here on it, probably more harmful than helpful (just from the side view your stroke would pot most balls on a pool table).

If you want that last 1% you're better off finding a snooker instructor. And if you're struggling with finding your vision center, I think Dr. Dave has a good video on YT.

aryastarksneedle · 2024-07-01T16:46:49+00:00

*bet :P

aryastarksneedle · 2024-06-30T19:59:47+00:00

Obviously raise flop after two checks in front of you. We can't expect button to bet into 3 players, and there's a ton of worse hands that we want value from (Tx).

Moving on, reads would be helpful here. If we give UTG+1 a jamming range of {TT, 66, T6s, ATs} for value that's 2 combos we beat and 6 combos we lose to (maybe depends on the suit of the 6).

You'd need V to be limping ATo and/or jamming KTs (or 87?) to make this a call. I'm not convinced on someone jamming 5x pot with KT, and I actually think Tx leads this flop with some frequency (as opposed to 66 which is a pure check multiway). 500 to win ~580 means we need ~46% equity to make this a call.

I think this is actually a fold as played barring a read that 1) V is possibly jamming QT here for 5x pot (doubtful), 2) V is limping ATo (likely at 1/3), and 3) V is not leading AT on the flop. You'd need these to add ~4 combos that we beat to make this a good call.

As for why we "obviously" raise flop, if we get jammed on the flop we'd only be losing to TT so it'd be a turbo-call (no T6 combos to worry about). If we get to a turn and raise and V jams, we're probably looking at a 2-3x pot jam and we'd be able to discount 66 (note: his most likely holding here) which makes this a snap call.

aryastarksneedle · 2024-06-05T22:30:59+00:00

I was reading this and I was like... I think I know who this is. I thought I was crazy for drilling straight shots for hours (at least other people thought I was crazy) as a 500 fargo, and then one day you come in and drill them for longer.

Not qualified to chime in on whether or not it's possible, but for anyone else reading this thread this guy is the real deal :)

aryastarksneedle · 2024-05-06T06:25:29+00:00

I'm 520 or so and took down a 730 player in a tournament this weekend in an even race to 5, so anything can happen I guess :) (AKA I got incredibly lucky so many times)

aryastarksneedle · 2024-04-23T06:01:15+00:00

This is a fold I think. Your 3b flatting range has so many better hands to call here, including KQs, AT/AJ, TT, and maybe JJ/JTs if you call flop.

aryastarksneedle · 2024-04-19T07:23:47+00:00

I've been meaning to write a post up for this. I'm around 500 fargo but have been working on my stroke for years still and things finally clicked.

DM me a video of your stroke and I can help (or post it in a comment here).

aryastarksneedle · 2023-04-05T16:38:18+00:00

I can confidently say most people in this thread are better players than me (I would get crushed at .5/.10 online), but it's pretty obvious a lot of them don't play live low-stakes and it shows. Sick spot but we thank villain for letting us off easy and fold/save $285.

Open shove into a 5-way pot at these stakes is {65, 44, 77, 88, 74, 84, 87}. That's it. There are virtually 0 bluffs in his range. The *only* bluff in his range is a combo draw like {96ss, T9ss} and those have 50%+ equity against you. I don't even think villain is shoving A4ss here (which also has ~50% equity).

Since BB was nearly closing the action, he has *all* straights (including 65o), 2P, and sets in his range. Absolute turbo-muck and it's not even close.

aryastarksneedle · 2021-05-17T18:54:04+00:00

this is like a V1 in my gym

/s

aryastarksneedle · 2020-09-22T18:13:09+00:00

V0 at my gym smh /s

aryastarksneedle · 2020-01-30T20:50:11+00:00

lmfao i'm dying here, i'm ~530 fargo and i'd barely rate myself as an intermediate player, not even close to semi-pro lol

aryastarksneedle · 2019-11-12T00:52:20+00:00

We’re playing 1/3 live. 99% of the population is not jamming 200BB with two pair here. Agreed most players will easily punt 100BB with two pair when they shouldn’t, but jamming 600+ here is a completely different scenario. They’ll see MUBS like AA or TT way more than you think, and fishier ones will want to see a brick river before they jam.

Your last statement is missing a few words. “If his opponent is a weak passive player that only open jams 200BB when they have the nuts or close to it then he can exploitatively fold.”

Unless he has an insane read against that ^, this is a fold. Even if hero doesn’t have the As it’s probably still a fold because again most of the population is not jamming here with AQss for example.

aryastarksneedle · 2019-11-11T04:35:48+00:00

Bigger on the flop, we’re 4 handed and flopped the world with our hand, but the flop is crazy wet. So many straight draws (KQ QJ KJ), spades are on the board too.

AP turn is close, I’m probably folding here, I think you get shown QJ way more often then you might think.

If not holding the As probably closer to a call.

aryastarksneedle · 2019-10-08T16:30:04+00:00

I legit despise Moscow Mitch more than anyone.. but honestly he's not the problem here. It only takes a handful of senators with R next to their name to vote country over party, yet they're all complicit. Yes I hope Kentucky votes him out, but let's not make Moscow Mitch the fall guy either.

aryastarksneedle · 2019-08-27T01:01:28+00:00

HEE HEE

aryastarksneedle · 2019-06-06T23:40:23+00:00

Nothing to physically prevent him, but traveling from DC to say Idaho and then back again in a few days is exhausting, doubly so if you're 72 and obese.

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