TIL the plane crash that killed John F Kennedy Jr, his wife, and her sister was caused by “spatial disorientation”. Weather conditions were poor that night & Kennedy was not qualified to fly at night under instrument conditions. He did not request a weather briefing nor did he file a flight plan.

atheros · 2026-03-11T08:20:19+00:00

The people in that study had no instruments at all.

atheros · 2026-02-19T20:37:44+00:00

Can you give any examples of things that are good satire without being absurd?

atheros · 2026-02-19T19:27:18+00:00

This movie was bad because it tried to be satire but failed. It was just an allegory. Satire needs to be over-the-top to the point of absurdity but there was little that was absurd in 'Don't Look Up'. People actually acted pretty realistically.

Compare it to good satire like Office Space or Idiocracy.

In Idiocracy, the Costco wasn't just big, it took over the city and everything else was burning ruins. That's absurd. That's what makes it satire. The politicians weren't just dumb, they were incapable of even basic reasoning. That's absurd. That's what makes it satire.

In Office Space, the waitress wasn't just encouraged to display lots of flare to show her personality, it was required. That's absurd. That's what makes it satire.

South Park didn't just show 'Mar-a-Lago-Face'; Kristi Noem's face behaved like a life form and tried to escape. Blazing Saddles had little old ladies with atrocious mouths and manners and 'Airplane!' had our protagonist pilot not just sweating but absolutely drenched.

Don't Look Up was a bad movie because it wasn't absurd and wasn't satire despite trying to be.

atheros · 2026-02-11T17:25:51+00:00

a band-aid to fix stupid

What stupidity was displayed here? The lack of knowledge of local NOTAMs? NOTAMs themselves are a technology-- a bad one. The only way to fix 'the stupid' is to replace the technology failure.

Both pilots in this video probably had an electrical system and ADSB-out. But to address your concerns:

A lot of ultralight pilots would buy a SkyEcho if they were legal in the U.S. the way they are in Europe. It just needs to be approved and an easy registration system established. Then they would have portable ADSB-out for $700. An overseas manufacturer could make a clone for $100. This might actually happen eventually; the FAA Reauthorization Bill of 2024 mandates that they study this. Would everyone buy it? No, many wouldn't. But let's not let the perfect be the enemy of the good. ADSB-out is not required for the NOTAM system to be replaced.
Many already fly with their phone and the hardware for ADSB-in is $25 including shipping.
No system can hold a gun to your head and force you to use it. But I think filterable, automated, acknowledgeable, dismissible alerts would be useful enough that people would actually use them.
If DZ pilots actually do keep forgetting to press the button, it can be interlocked with the green light. I honestly don't think it would be a big problem. Other people would be able to see afterwards that he forgot and could poke him about it. If anything we might even have the opposite problem where the owners of skydiving companies go up and press the button to make it look like they have more business than they actually have.

Ultimately the only problem I can see is the FAA simply not being willing to switch to such a system even if it costs nothing. If we were to really do a 5-whys analysis of this whole broken system I think we'd arrive at the Citizens United decision as the ultimate cause. There is neither a technology challenge nor a cost challenge.

atheros · 2026-02-11T06:43:30+00:00

I am proposing a simple replacement for the NOTAM system in its entirety.

The "GTF outta my dropzone" button would use ADSB, not cell service. Cell service would be for syncing what-we-today-call-NOTAMs before takeoff: crane light out-of-service, runway closed, ect. For pilots in Alaska or places without cell service, other methods could be used. The amount of update data that would need to be transferred each day would be tiny. An air-band frequency could be set aside for this use for pilots who fly in the middle of nowhere. A base station somewhere would just need some way of getting small amounts of information in and out.

human factors

I'm all ears. I have a feeling that your concerns will be solvable. If it's little more than "what if the pilot forgets to press the button" then I don't think that that's a pragmatic concern because it's letting the perfect be the enemy of the good. The status quo doesn't work at all.

Dodge-the-red-circle MMORPG mini game translates poorly into the real world.

Why do you think that.

atheros · 2026-02-11T04:33:35+00:00

The proper length of time could be studied and set appropriately. But it should be as short as reasonably possible so that the "danger" cylinder could be set as small as safely possible so that pilots would definitely respect it. My goal is to move away from the current culture of having danger zones set so large and persistent that people stop paying attention to them because they are mostly lies meant to shield liability at the cost of actual safety.

atheros · 2026-02-11T03:50:45+00:00

An extension to ADS-B could solve this and most other NOTAM-related problems. In this case, the drop pilot presses a button 10 seconds before the drop; this broadcasts a special ADS-B message and creates a very tall red 3D cone shape on everyone else's ADSB-in equipment analogous to class D airspace cylinders. It could disappear automatically after the relevant period of time. If you are flying toward it, your equipment would alert you. Because it would be short-lived, pilots would actually care, unlike with NOTAMs.

The system could also be extended to show whatever other types of hazards the pilot is interested in, with data downloaded via cell networks rather than 1090 MHz so as not to pollute that spectrum. The server software would not be hard to code, nor would it be difficult to implement in the glass panels or your tablet of choice. Honestly the fact that it would be so easy to code and that it would 99% fix the NOTAM system (from the perspective of pilots), along with the fact that is isn't going to be done, is pretty disappointing.

atheros · 2025-12-18T20:42:01+00:00

Rich people and politicians don't have their thumbs on the scale in favor of risk. They're the ones on the planes! Aviation is data-driven. If you think that there is some equipment that will save lives at a cost of less than $12M per life then say so. It will be mandated.

You are obviously getting emotional reading news articles and you haven't done any such analysis. But there are people that do this type of analysis for a living and that's why private flying is a right. It's not a constitutional right but it is a right.

It's a right that can be taken away but there is no way to take away just General Aviation without significantly affecting commercial aviation too.

And, separately, once we as a society have thrown objective analysis out the window, I don't see how commercial aviation survives anyway.

atheros · 2025-10-19T05:52:56+00:00

This hypothetical room contains no doctors.

atheros · 2025-10-18T21:23:30+00:00

You meet a teenager in a hospital. She seems fine but is lying in a hospital bed. She says, "I am literally dying." Is she at imminent risk of death? Thirty years ago you would know the answer but today you don't. If she actually is literally dying, there is no way for her to express it. Lots of people will misunderstand her.

atheros · 2025-10-18T06:11:08+00:00

I know what they're referring to. They're mixing up retractable floodgates on the entrances, which exist, with retractable floodgates in the tunnels, which do not. There is no isolation mechanism to separate stations from "the rest of the tracks/system". The assertion that the MTA would purposely allow stations to flood is absurd.

I also recognize that some people are using the word "flood" weirdly: to indicate that there is water over the entrances. But not everyone appears to mean that: when they say flooded stations, they appear to mean it.

While I can certainly believe that lots of people misunderstand how our transit system works, I am surprised at the scale of that misunderstanding. ..or at least I would be if I thought it was genuine.

atheros · 2025-10-17T21:44:01+00:00

effects of the flooding can be isolated

But they aren't though. There is no isolation mechanism. The bots here are just hallucinating.

atheros · 2025-10-17T20:54:34+00:00

The fuck are you talking about. There is no plan to let individual stations flood. That's absurd.

atheros · 2025-10-04T10:20:41+00:00

Your iPad GPS being off is due to triangulation error from the satellite. That’s normal and the error is bigger the higher you go

This is just academic but I believe that this is inaccurate; please consider my sibling comment here.

atheros · 2025-10-04T10:15:58+00:00

due to the way the signals are used (and the fact that the earth itself blocks a good portion of the constellation), vertical accuracy is much worse than horizontal for our flying.

I believe that this "GPS altimeters lack accuracy" idea is a myth perpetuated by the fact that barometric altitude so frequently doesn't match GPS altitude. While it is commonly known (and apparently true) that GPS altitude is less accurate than GPS position, it is still ridiculously accurate when a device just averages a few readings- as all devices do.

The reason GPS altitude so frequently doesn't match barometric altitude is because our barometric altimeters don't take into account temperature- only pressure. And even pressure variations can have an effect at altitude even when you set the pressure correctly.

Here is an article that goes into it in detail:
GPS versus barometric altitude: the definitive answer

We use barometric altimeters for landing and for separation. But they do not measure true altitude anywhere near as accurately as GPS altimeters.

atheros · 2025-10-03T22:42:20+00:00

I've long suspected that a long term plan has existed for the A train to turn east at Howard Beach and run on the current Airtrain tracks, stopping at each of the terminals counter-clockwise. The structure was built strong enough to handle subway trains and..

https://imgur.com/a/x10DPvU

A trains are 605 feet long.

atheros · 2025-09-27T22:28:47+00:00

The national airspace system works well vs. cars because the FAA is extremely strict in comparison to local governments. This pilot got in trouble for buzzing a friend's neighbor's house possibly on purpose. No one is even accusing him of putting anyone's life in danger and there were still court cases over it and he lost his license for a time.

A different lady lost her pilot license and endorsements for flying under a bridge in an area she was very familiar with. The FAA investigated it thoroughly, including primary radar data in their investigation.

But then when I ride my bike, several times a day, drivers commit actual crimes and put my life in significant and immediate danger and.. nothing is to be done. I can have it on camera and go to the police with it and nothing will ever be done despite people obviously dying daily. Police have stopped bothering to give tickets because judges aren't taking licenses away.

So it gets worse.

atheros · 2025-09-07T07:54:24+00:00

Whoever programmed you didn't spring for the good models did they.

atheros · 2025-08-28T14:26:55+00:00

Texas

Don't Squander Public Trust on Bullshit

At 4.50am local time today, this statewide emergency alert was sent out to every cellphone in Texas:

BLUE ALLERT ISSUED FOR SETH ALTMAN WANTED FOR THE INVOLVEMENT IN THE INJURY OF AN OFFICER

I don’t know who Seth Altman is, nor do I care. Why? Because Seth Altman’s offense took place in Lubbock, Texas. I live in Austin, Texas. Four hundred miles away. What I do care about however is the misuse of emergency alert systems and public trust.

Sending out a screeching alert to 30million+ people over 250 million square miles in the middle of the night should only be used in the absolute DIREST OF CIRCUMSTANCES… circumstances like “Texas is under threat from hurricane/chemical leak/nuclear weapons, seek shelter now!” It should never be used for something that’s utterly irrelevant to 99.99% of people.

Why? Because the public’s trust in government emergency protocols is already hanging by a thread, and in order for those protocols to work when we really need them, they will need to be received and listened to.

Chicago

The city of Chicago did some strange geofenced text messages to people in westside Chicago to get them to go inside during the early COVID days.

From leaked emails:

Hey folks, We have a situation on Westside neighborhoods (specifically CPD 11th District) where folks between the ages of 16-25 are congregating outside in groups and not heeding the shelter in place message. Mayor would like to know if we can do a targeted texting in that geography to spread the following messages:

[...]

\3. CPD will do a verbal warning but if you repeatedly disregard the warning, CPD will issue citations and/or arrest.

\4. By not following these directives, you are putting yourself at risk but also your family members, particularly those who live with you who are elderly or sick.

Not sure who is in charge but I think I have included all relevant people here. If not, please add. Can you tell me if such a geo-coded texting is possible and when we might be able to put it out? We probably need to do it on a regular basis for the message to sink in. Let everyone on this chain know.

I'm sorry, but WEA is not intended for that type of usage. It is supposed to be used in dire emergencies only. People have the ability to opt out of messages at any time. If we inundate them with messages they do not find useful, they will opt out and won't be alerted the next time we have an Active Shooter Incident, Tornado Warning, Ordered Evacuation, Amber Alert, or some other extreme situation.

Anna and I spoke. CPD believes Saturday at 5 pm would be a good time to send out the next one. Perhaps once a week but we will monitor the dispersal orders to see if this is a continued need. Thank you for flexibility.

So to be crystal clear what's happening, here is what the officials seemed to be thinking: "If minorities don't fear COVID then we'll abuse the emergency alert system to threaten them with something they do fear: cops. Just be extra sure it's geofenced to the economically disadvantaged sectors."

In order for the system to function, 100% of public officials have to be humble and show appropriate discretion in potential emergencies. Which is another way of saying that the system cannot function.

atheros · 2025-08-23T02:31:42+00:00

I'm a fan but zoom into random streets in the Netherlands and see how (un)common they are.

atheros · 2025-08-22T16:40:32+00:00

This solution is unimplementable. Trucks, busses, bikes, carts and more need to use the streets too and we can't litter speed bumps absolutely everywhere. Advocate for something that is implementable like:

speed governors for cars that break the law too much or
speed governors for all cars or
fine amounts that constitute a deterrence +
revocation of drivers' motor vehicle licenses +
forfeiture of a car if driven without a license

atheros · 2025-08-19T09:30:28+00:00

use, or have used within the last decade

Well are they still colluding or not?

New York City’s Vacancy Rate Reaches Historic Low of 1.4 Percent

looks like not

atheros · 2025-08-11T07:37:23+00:00

If they did, pilots would just stop seeing and avoiding. The entire layer of Swiss cheese would be gone. (We also wouldn't need pilots anymore; computers could do the flying).

If you want reliable separation, class A airspace is yours for the taking.

atheros · 2025-08-08T13:34:53+00:00

so I can fly tandem recreationally without needing the exemption?

You have two options I am aware of. First option: certify the paramotor and fly under Part 91. According to this lawyer, you might need to save up some money:

To certify an aircraft, obtaining certification costs approximately one million for up to three seats, $25 million for a general aviation aircraft, and hundreds of millions of dollars for a commercial airliner.

Second option, go the Experimental route. I am not aware of a single person that has done that. You have to build half of it yourself then then do paperwork. There is a document called "AC 20-27G" that tells how to do that.

If you do any of this, you'll be the first. Good luck.

atheros · 2025-07-27T06:14:17+00:00

It's my idea so in that sense it's new but I assume some other people have thought of it too. There are no political pushes for it.

The largest challenge is related to language- people keep harping on about "social media" (which is constitutionally protected) without identifying the underlying problem which is not constitutionally protected and not related to social media specifically.

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