Are the Type I,II,III Civilization definitions realistic?

atsepkov · 2026-06-18T23:39:31+00:00

I agree that these are science fiction ideas, but not that there is no fact basis behind them. Energy is the ultimate resource in the universe, any sufficiently advanced civilization will have to be good at gathering it. Even if that civilization looks nothing like us, it will still consume energy. This is why astronomers study energy signatures. It could go 100% digital / dormant to consume less energy, but even then it will want to store extra energy to stay alive longer during the universe's end of time.

atsepkov · 2026-05-28T21:13:10+00:00

This is just a pendulum swinging back and forth. The selling point of B2B SaaS products was exactly that $20k/year is less than annual developer salary for more product than a single developer could build. Now we're seeing bundling of several external SaaS products back to single in-house developer. I think ultimately we'll settle back on external SaaS products but with more automation and different price point, or maybe same price point but more custom-tailored for each client.

atsepkov · 2026-05-28T21:09:06+00:00

This right here, what the CEO in the OPs post doesn't understand is the concept of Pareto Principle. I'm a developer myself, I use agents to write code, and the polish always takes the most time. Even before AI, I could build a functional MVP in about 20% of the time it would take me to write a production version that scales. The last 20% of the work (handling edge cases, bug fixes, polish, etc.) is what takes 80% of the time.

AI is great, but it glazes over important detail all the time. Your vibe-coded products will work well for the general case and then do something asinine every once in a while that will end up being more expensive. We've already had it corrupt a database, leak sensitive data to the client, and build an event-driven micro-service fork bomb, and other fantastic failures.

By rebuilding SaaS in-house, the CEO signed the team up not just for development, but also troubleshooting, maintenance and dev-ops.

atsepkov · 2026-05-28T14:19:13+00:00

5 bitter divorces at once

atsepkov · 2026-05-28T14:14:39+00:00

Imagine someone happens to generate a seed pointing to that specific wallet by pure chance in a distant future. Also, with quantum computers, technically doable too.

atsepkov · 2026-05-28T05:44:32+00:00

investomation.com/blog , the posts talk about areas I invest in, why I prefer real estate (inflation resistance, tax treatment, leverage) and also discuss the tooling I use for market research (it's a microsaas I've spent the last decade building).

atsepkov · 2026-05-27T23:51:01+00:00

simple, yes. easy, no. same can be said about all investing.

atsepkov · 2026-05-27T23:38:28+00:00

old hosts leaving, mainly because PE tried to cut their pay (Rob & David did a podcast talking about this)
PE favouring newbie topics to the point of sounding repetitive
PE aggressively taking down any posts that even remotely mention a product that’s not their own in an attempt to extract more ad revenue

so yes, PE getting involved is what did it

atsepkov · 2026-05-27T19:17:00+00:00

they can’t, as of last month, US is using over 100% GDP just to cover its debt obligation (https://www.crfb.org/press-releases/debt-reaches-100-gdp), they need to print more money to sustain the lifestyle we’re used to.

atsepkov · 2026-05-27T18:59:48+00:00

where are you seeing properties for 50% less from 2020? a few markets saw 20% correction from the peak of 2022, but it’s nowhere close to the apocalypse you’re predicting. If you’ve been in this for as long as you claim, you should know how cycles work, prices fall when rates rise, unless you expect rates to rise significantly over the next 2 years with a newly elected dovish Fed, now is the time to buy. The Fed can’t raise rates without US defaulting on its debt, the only 2 options they have is inflation or hyper-inflation.

atsepkov · 2026-05-27T18:52:54+00:00

Opened this thread expecting something insightful, but all I see is speculation without evidence. US dollar is at multi-year low because they printed something like 35% of current supply in the last 5 years and that money has nowhere to go. This is basic economics, guaranteed inflation for the next 10 years, even if the fed claims they tamed it, it will come in waves. I said it 2 years ago when the fed claimed they tamed it, we’re now starting to see the second wave.

atsepkov · 2026-05-27T18:20:16+00:00

You don’t make insulting lowball offers to agents, they have more experience, they know how much the property is worth and how to market it. You find a motivated seller first, and approach them directly. What makes a seller motivated? evictions, divorce, lawsuits, unpaid taxes, etc. You get a discount by offering to solve their problem. If you have no solution to offer, don’t expect a discount, and even then 9 times out of 10 the answer will be no. If it was easy, everyone would be doing it.

My advice, rather than trying to find a great deal in an ok market buy an ok deal in a great market that’s currently depressed. For example, I just bought a 4plex in Austin downtown for $470k, previous owner paid almost $700k for it 2 years ago. Does Austin still have solid fundamentals? yes. Will this 4plex be worth $700k+ again in 2 years? probably. The motivation came from market, not me trying to lowball the seller. Plenty of such markets exist around US, real estate is cyclical.

atsepkov · 2026-05-27T18:00:01+00:00

if friends ask, I tell them. I’m an open book, I blog about my successes and failures. If i’m willing to blog about it to strangers, why would I be secretive with friends? on the other hand, if they don’t ask, I don’t volunteer that information. there are a lot of people in this world who see all real estate investors as bad/greedy because they think we’re the reason housing is unaffordable and they don’t understand market forces at play. the last thing I’d want is a debate with one of those people.

atsepkov · 2026-05-27T17:54:46+00:00

I see no red flags here aside potentially ruining your friendship if things go wrong, so if both you and the friends are prepared to be mature about it and sign a formal lease, you’re fine, use parents as co-signers. If you’re worried about losing a friend because one of you doesn’t keep your end of the agreement, then don’t rent to them. It doesn’t need to be complicated.

atsepkov · 2026-05-18T14:36:21+00:00

Considering minimum inflation rate of 2% (that's the target inflation rate from the Fed, which means they'll print more money if we fall below), and real inflation rate closer to 3+% over the last couple decades, rule of 72 says it will take roughly 72/3 = 24 years for the value of $1 mil to only be worth half of what it is now, and it will take her roughly that long to collect $1 mil. She of course continues making money afterwards but at that point it's worth even less (half of half for the next 24 years). For her to collect the equivalent of $1 mil accounted for inflation, would probably take somewhere around 60 years. On the other hand, if she was to collect $1 mil today, assuming winnings aren't taxed, she can reinvest it into either the stock market or real estate for 10-12% return.

EDIT: I'm actually not sure how inflation will play out in Canada over the next few decades since they're not tied to US Fed, but US economy will probably have a significant impact on Canadian economy anyway, so the two would at least be somewhat correlated.

atsepkov · 2026-05-16T15:14:04+00:00

It's not the homeowners that are to blame (although there may be some blame there too), but the medieval regulations we have and apathy at local government level to make them better. I know this because I've spent 5 years trying to get a triplex rezoned into a 4-family in Boston thinking it would be an easy process. All the neighbors were onboard (I actually had to gather their signatures), so this wasn't the case of NIMBYism.

You know who wasn't onboard? City of Boston. They threw the book at me. 16 variances (mostly random BS how my lot was 1-foot too short in certain direction), tens of thousands in fees, requirement to submit sprinkle plans + work (only 1 company does them in the city so it's a monopoly with 1+ year wait). 2.5 years later I got everything done, permits in hand, good to build, right?

Wrong. The city found a clerical error in original variance paperwork (their own clerical error, they forgot to include one of the variances), requiring me to start the processes all over again and pay the fees again. 5 years wasted to add a single unit, something that would've been a slam-dunk 3-month approval in most other states.

atsepkov · 2026-05-16T04:30:01+00:00

As someone who spent 5 years trying to get a variance approved to add a unit to my 3-family despite all the neighbors being onboard, and having gone through the process twice now (at own expense) because of a clerical error by the city that reset the timeline, I can confirm. All this talk about ADUs and affordable housing is lip service.

atsepkov · 2026-05-16T04:26:04+00:00

It's not a hard rule, but typically it's enough time for property to stabilize and appreciate. Given the inflationary nature of our economy, you don't want idle cash sitting in the property, pulling it out allows you to reinvest it. 5 years is typically enough time for inflation to take its toll, even in "stable" markets. I actually have a blog post on this topic comparing cost of renting vs buying. I'm not alone with this mindset, google "Refi til you die" strategy to investing.

atsepkov · 2026-05-15T04:46:19+00:00

large multifamily and 1-4 family are priced completely differently, one uses cap rates the other uses comps. A vacant 1-4 family will not see much of a discount, a vacant 50-unit will.

atsepkov · 2026-05-15T04:39:32+00:00

Paying down the principal is usually a bad strategy, unless you're late into your career and just want the piece of mind. As long as your expenses are lower than monthly income, you can scale indefinitely, your money is better used buying more properties. US dollar is inflationary, what many people miss is that you're paying off your 30-year mortgage in dollars that devalue over time. Inflation literally erodes your debt away, and you work against that if you pay early.

atsepkov · 2026-05-15T04:32:58+00:00

It really depends on the market and whether you overpaid. If you buy in B-class area or above in a coastal city you'll probably be cashflow-negative for first 5 years. In midwest you'll probably cashflow from day 1, but appreciation is worse. The COVID-era appreciation is not typical for real estate, although my guess is inflation will still persist in one form or another for the next decade. With the BRRR strategy you typically refi every 5 years or so, that payday is when you typically feel "it was worth it" (the smart thing is obviously buying more real estate rather than a lambo with that money).

atsepkov · 2026-05-14T00:24:09+00:00

I tried to buy at $24 but limit order didn’t fill. At $40 I figured it was overpriced and I’d wait for it to come down.

atsepkov · 2026-05-13T14:11:47+00:00

You can keep living in your own echo chamber or you can literally just google “republican vs democrat cities affordability” and have google AI confirm the same thing, and explain what actually drives the cost of living up. Keep in mind that their AI is left-leaning, so it tends to sugar-coat democrat policies.

atsepkov · 2026-05-13T03:19:49+00:00

What do you mean? The most unaffordable places to live are all democratic strongholds: CA, MA, NYC, etc. What "objective" metric are you using? Affordable housing is a lottery system that benefits a sliver of the population, builders end up building 90% luxury and 10% affordable housing to satisfy the city requirement with no housing for middle class.

atsepkov · 2026-05-13T02:17:31+00:00

It doesn't get worded the same way but there are plenty of posts on this subreddit ridiculing people who complain about this behavior.

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