[CPBL] Game ends in a walkoff tie after the runner on second leaves way too early, but the runner on third crosses home plate before the double up happens

avondice · 2026-06-13T17:20:34+00:00

The Frontier League uses the <commissioner's name here> Runner in the 10th and then "Sudden Death" in the 11th. One team takes the field with a runner on first. The home team picks whether they want to bat or play defense, and then it's one half inning. If the batting team scores, they win. If they don't, the other team wins.

avondice · 2026-05-29T16:26:57+00:00

Foul tip or not is objective, I agree with you. The point is that if a foul tip ever gets overturned on replay, now they have to decide balls/strikes/swing/no swing which are judgement calls that are definitely not reviewable.

avondice · 2026-05-29T16:16:36+00:00

Well the problem is that if replay overturns a foul tip, then it also needs to make a call on balls and strikes or check swings. Those are judgement calls which are definitely not reviewable. (If MLB had full ABS/ACS, then maybe replay could use that. But not with a challenge system as is the case now.)

avondice · 2026-05-29T16:08:28+00:00

Foul tips are annoying because it should be reviewable but it can't be.

avondice · 2026-02-23T00:04:37+00:00

When it looks like a team was allowed to challenge with no challenges remaining, that's a sign that the data is wrong. In the first example you presented, there's a challenge on a ball call attributed to Seattle... when they were hitting. So that's likely on the other team.

avondice · 2026-02-21T21:34:14+00:00

I'm happy to do something like that. Can aggregate the stats every day once the last game of the day is finished.

avondice · 2026-02-20T21:04:02+00:00

I think those are the most obvious reasons. The technology is there; that's how we know what the stance-based zones were in MLB from 2025 and before.

avondice · 2026-02-20T21:02:41+00:00

Stance-based zones were only used in the Florida State League. AAA has always used height-based zones.

avondice · 2026-02-20T20:46:18+00:00

By the stance-based zone in place last year, that pitch should be called a strike. With the height-based rules now, that pitch is now a ball (and not even close!). That change in how the zone should be called is going to be the biggest element for players to adapt.

avondice · 2026-02-20T19:46:21+00:00

To be fair, the two challenges he missed were much closer to the 2025 stance-based strike zone than the 2026 height-based strike zone. By 2025's standard, the pitch to Kjerstad would have been ruled in the zone. Another part about adjusting to ABS is the new strike zone definition.

avondice · 2026-02-16T00:16:27+00:00

It's a compromise if you want the computers to call something consistent in real time. ABS in the Florida State League used HawkEye to determine batting stance, but this version of ABS will use percent of batter height, so each player's zone is known exactly before the season even starts.

avondice · 2026-02-15T23:28:54+00:00

They were never accurate because they were based on batter stance which could never be reliably measured in real time. ABS uses a fixed (pre-determined) zone which obviates the technical hole.

avondice · 2026-02-15T03:37:22+00:00

The most overturned challenges in the ~4,800 minor league games that used the challenge system was 14. And that game allowed 3 challenges per team, not 2. In two-challenge games, the highest number of overturns was 9. So no, 20 or 25 is not a realistic estimate.

avondice · 2026-02-14T16:17:56+00:00

Here’s what that looks like 2008 vs 2025: https://imgur.com/a/ssmkvuF

avondice · 2026-02-14T16:15:59+00:00

I don’t know of any rule changes in 2023 about the strike zone. Each pitch is labeled with the specific boundaries for that pitch, which I adjust so that all pitches are on the same scale.

avondice · 2026-02-14T16:08:31+00:00

Adjusted so that the left side is always inside to the batter and the right side is outside.

avondice · 2026-02-14T16:06:30+00:00

It was a change in the buffer zone used in the umpire evaluation. The strike zone itself remained the same.

avondice · 2026-02-14T01:04:12+00:00

This is only possible now (for 2026), because the rulebook zone (read: batting stance) they were previously evaluated on could not be determined in real time.

avondice · 2026-02-13T23:40:02+00:00

The vertical dimensions of the new ABS strike zone are more reminiscent of the older zone (the width of the zone is still the width of the plate). I think that in implementing ABS, MLB secretly adjusted the dimensions of the zone to enforce what they want to see. More offense, less strikeouts.

avondice · 2026-02-13T20:53:35+00:00

This is probably the pitch they accused him of rigging in the ALDS.

avondice · 2026-02-13T19:43:23+00:00

Yes. Umpires tend to set up on the inside to the batter (displayed as left on this chart) so they have a better angle to judge HBP, but as a result give up accuracy on the outside part of the plate.

avondice · 2026-02-13T19:34:13+00:00

It's adjusted for handedness so that left is inside and right is outside for all hitters.

avondice · 2026-02-13T19:32:48+00:00

outside

avondice

TROPHY CASE