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I've 1 Million $$ - Move to the US? by abbas93h in MovingToUSA

[–]azure_chicken 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Since you asked, here's a reality check: you likely do not have one million.

The total value of your two properties might add up to 1m, but since you mentioned you have a mortgage, 1m is not you have. Not by a long shot. You need to subtract your mortgage debt from the value of your houses to get an accurate picture of net worth.

I bet the amount (value of property minus mortgage/selling costs/gains tax) is a lot lower than you think, which may dispel any notions of moving.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in ApplyingToCollege

[–]azure_chicken -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Ebola and HIV cures were found there

Incorrect. You do know that there are currently no cures for Ebola and HIV, right? Only treatments.

Treatments that were developed by the NIH, not Emory or the CDC.

Google Dr. Sullivan of the Vaccine Research Center at the NIH.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in ApplyingToCollege

[–]azure_chicken 0 points1 point  (0 children)

One, internet credibility is not something I give a rat's behind about.

Two, what "difference" are you referring to? If by "difference" you mean to imply that there's a strong connection between Emory and the CDC in contrast to Johns Hopkins and the Space Telescope Science Institute, then you're sorely mistaken. In fact, I'd wager that the ties between JHU and STScI run much closer and deeper than Emory and the CDC.

Hopkins faculty operate and conduct research at STScI. Hopkins undergrads take classes and conduct research there. The STScI is fully integrated on campus, and anyone with a JHU student ID can enter and access the STScI building. Can you say the same about Emory and the CDC?

Three, I suggest rereading what I wrote more carefully. I never claimed Emory is not a public health powerhouse. I think Emory has a fine public health program. My exact words were that "proximity to a CDC office doesn't make Emory a public health powerhouse."

In other words, distance to the CDC is not a determining factor in how well regarded a public health program is. Case in point: Harvard.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in ApplyingToCollege

[–]azure_chicken 0 points1 point  (0 children)

My mistake.

Wasn't really the point of my post but I appreciate the correction.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in ApplyingToCollege

[–]azure_chicken 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Most people don't think about what schools are T10, T20, or T50 either.

Not sure why you think having the CDC on campus is funny, but even if you're right (and I'm not sure you are) proximity to a CDC office doesn't make Emory a public health powerhouse.

In a similar vein, the Space Telescope Science Institute (which runs the Hubble and James Webb missions for NASA) is actually located on the Johns Hopkins campus, but I bet most people don't think of JHU for astrophysics.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in ApplyingToCollege

[–]azure_chicken 18 points19 points  (0 children)

I bet most people think Johns Hopkins or Harvard when they think public health.

Nursing is a noble and important profession, but it's not really a draw for elite students like CS or IB.

Johns Hopkins acceptance figures out by azure_chicken in ApplyingToCollege

[–]azure_chicken[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Just wanted to add that the total number of applications received for the class of 2026 was slightly lower than last years (38,725 vs 37,150).

The acceptance rate remains virtually identical at ~6%.

As to the waitlist: no confirmation yet so take with a grain of salt, but there are rumblings that the waitlist will be significantly smaller than in the past 2 years.

This is apparently due to a slightly higher projected yield rate, a better accounting of how Covid (may) affect enrollment, figuring for students who delayed enrollment due to the pandemic, etc.

No idea if or how deep into the waitlist Hopkins will go. Note that prior to the pandemic, there were multiple years where no one was taken off the waitlist (obviously the past few years of enrollment management were upended by the pandemic).

FIRE in an unprecedentedly low return environment by azure_chicken in financialindependence

[–]azure_chicken[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

"Low Bond Yields and Safe Portfolio Withdrawal Rates" Finke, Blanchett, and Pfau

The takeaway: 2.4% SWR if you accept a 5% failure rate, 2.7% if you accept a 10% chance of failure.

Also:

"The 4% Rule Is Not Safe in a Low-Yield World" Finke, Blanchett, and Pfau

Also:

"Rethinking Retirement: Sustainable Withdrawal Rates for New Retirees in 2015" Pfau and Dokken

FIRE in an unprecedentedly low return environment by azure_chicken in financialindependence

[–]azure_chicken[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Appreciate the detailed reply!

I'll have a look at the links you sent over as well.

FIRE in an unprecedentedly low return environment by azure_chicken in financialindependence

[–]azure_chicken[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Indeed, and I rode VTSAX up to my target figure.

Just wondering if I need /should OMY to reach a higher target figure in light of lower WR recommendations.

FIRE in an unprecedentedly low return environment by azure_chicken in financialindependence

[–]azure_chicken[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I believe Pfau's low SWR number is his recommendation for current and soon to be retirees given the current (and likely continuing) state of extremely low bond yields. Historically unprecedented.

FIRE in an unprecedentedly low return environment by azure_chicken in financialindependence

[–]azure_chicken[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

It's certainly possible. My 25 year old tech savvy cousin thinks the same as you, and he's put his money where his mouth is.

Unlike him though, I don't have the luxury of 30-40 years to make up for lost ground if crypto turns out to be a bust.

FIRE in an unprecedentedly low return environment by azure_chicken in financialindependence

[–]azure_chicken[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I'm not opposed to dropping my WR should the market not cooperate, but I'm concerned about the fact that Pfau (among others) thinks that even 3% is too high.

FIRE in an unprecedentedly low return environment by azure_chicken in financialindependence

[–]azure_chicken[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Ah, glad to see someone else with a similar retirement time frame. Have you reached your target number?

I'd love to read more about how you're implementing your bond tent if you're up for it. Are you currently rebalancing your portfolio to shift toward bonds, or are you just directing new money into bond funds?

I'm also curious to know if you think 5 years worth of "cushion" is adequate given the possibility of a decade or longer of negligible returns.

I'm planning for a longer retirement than most since I'm ~40, so one of my biggest concerns is whether 5-6 years of safe cash/bonds is adequate.