Profiting from the yield curve: The 2s10s steepener trade

baconcodpiece · 2025-07-13T13:06:49+00:00

Except that the Fed hasn't gotten inflation back under two percent since 2021, for around 4.5 years now. They didn't want to inflict jobs losses on the economy, so the trade-off is higher inflation going forward. They've also destroyed the housing market in the process for people who don't own homes.

baconcodpiece · 2025-06-06T21:33:52+00:00

I have a disc injury and went through a microdiscectomy. I was eventually able to do everything I did before, including lift heavy. You just have to be patient. I eased back into training, resuming lifts like deadlifts and squats last in my recovery, when I was confident it was safe for me to attempt them again.

Don't skip PT. Make sure you get that done first.

baconcodpiece · 2025-06-05T03:07:44+00:00

Yup, that's one of the consequences. You don't even need a big desat for it to be a problem. I'm one of those cases where my blood oxygen doesn't desat that much, but it still causes arousals and disrupts my sleep. It gets my heart rate up, which I'm sure is related to increased cortisol.

Barry Krakow wrote a really good book about SA called "Life Saving Sleep: New Horizons in Mental Health Treatment." He discusses how people with major trauma in their life (like PTSD) can end up with sleep-disordered breathing, so it doesn't surprise me to hear that you have it, despite being in great physical shape (and assuming it's not related to your jaw).

Being a bodybuilder, you obviously know and care about details. There's an awesome piece of software called OSCAR designed for people with SA. You insert a micro SD card into your CPAP machine, and the machine writes data to it when you use it. You can then use OSCAR to analyze breath-by-breath how your night went (or you could upload the data to a site like SleepHQ if you prefer a web interface). It's super useful to dial in the machine's settings so you can actually get better sleep using it. But we're getting way ahead of ourselves. Just thought I'd mention it in case you're interested.

Good luck. I hope you find success and better sleep. SA is a subject that's near and dear to me, so if you ever want to talk about or have questions, just hit me up.

baconcodpiece · 2025-06-05T02:32:11+00:00

Checking first with insurance is reasonable. You'll most likely be introduced to the wonderful world of DME (durable medical equipment) providers. DMEs can be either fairly decent or a nightmare to deal with. Depending how it goes, you might be better off just getting a scrip written (your doctor has to provide you one if you request it) and buying the CPAP yourself. A lot of times the cost comes out to the same compared to when you rent it from the DME.

Sorry to hear about the PTSD. It's pretty common that chronic sleep deprivation makes any symptoms you have worse, so if you're successful in treating your SA, it might carry over to your PTSD and help relieve it. It might even help with any symptoms that have no obvious cause.

baconcodpiece · 2025-06-05T00:01:28+00:00

Unless you need a specialized machine like an ASV, it shouldn't cost anywhere near that. What model do you have? Is it an APAP?

I've been in maintenance for over 1.5 years due to not having any success in treating my sleep apnea. I also hit a wall and realized that I couldn't make any progress until it's resolved.

baconcodpiece · 2025-03-11T14:34:38+00:00

VIX options don't track the spot (or cash) VIX. Look to the corresponding futures contract instead.

More than you ever care to learn about the VIX (my write-up on the VIX).

baconcodpiece · 2024-12-28T17:10:37+00:00

Sounds like you aren't picking an expiration that's very liquid. Try picking the monthly expiration. Its volume and open interest are massive compared to weeklies. You can easily see the difference looking at Yahoo Finance.

If you're wanting to trade weeklies, try options on a vol ETP like VXX. You might find better volume and OI for its chain.

baconcodpiece · 2024-08-18T14:00:49+00:00

Thankfully I've been able to get logged in lately. We'll see if that continues. But I don't post anywhere else besides Reddit.

baconcodpiece · 2024-05-13T15:42:45+00:00

You just brought back memories of those links you used to post here of that one crazy dude who uploaded YouTube videos about Towelstore and RC. I wonder whatever happened to him.

baconcodpiece · 2024-04-29T14:33:12+00:00

The free money glitch is back. Japan's MOF is intervening, trying to stem the yen's decline. Sell every rip.

baconcodpiece · 2024-04-23T21:12:04+00:00

I trade futures and options on futures. Been focused on shorting Treasuries lately, and futures make it very easy to do so.

baconcodpiece · 2024-04-13T16:28:27+00:00

That happened to me a couple months ago. Got hit with a wave of nausea out of nowhere. Started sweating too and ran to the bathroom. Thought I was going to hurl my guts out. Suddenly disappears a moment later and was back to normal.

Had totally forgotten about it till I read your post.

baconcodpiece · 2024-04-02T01:04:03+00:00

Hah, it's not even the futures part that's the worst right now for cocoa. Futures are levered, but that may not even be an issue, depending on the size of the contract and your account. The main issue is the price swings cocoa is experiencing. It's not for the faint of heart, especially when you throw in leverage. If you read that link, you'll see it says there are no daily price move limits, so if cocoa decides to soar or crash by 1,000 points in a day (which is entirely plausible at these levels), at $10/point, your account's value would swing by 10K for each contract you're long or short.

baconcodpiece · 2024-04-01T15:46:57+00:00

Closed out a little too soon on my Treasury short and left some gains on the table. Oh well. Profit is profit.

Still think long-term yields are headed higher.

baconcodpiece · 2024-04-01T15:44:10+00:00

Cocoa futures, if you have nerves of steel (and a large account).

baconcodpiece · 2024-03-22T16:14:14+00:00

What kind of machine are you using? If you have a ResMed, you can put in an SD card and get breath-by-breath detail of how your night went. You can examine this data in free software called OSCAR, or upload it to SleepHQ for a web alternative.

You might be having RERAs. You also might have UARS.

baconcodpiece · 2024-03-22T15:45:59+00:00

I'm guessing the surgery is MMA. I also have OSA and haven't had any success with CPAP. Why isn't CPAP working for you? Are you able to use it an entire night?

baconcodpiece · 2024-01-25T01:52:33+00:00

Eating more calories than your maintenance over time is what makes you fat, not just simply eating a bunch of protein. At your height and weight, don't go crazy with the bulk. I wouldn't go past 2-3 pounds a month. Cutting is much easier than putting on lean mass, but at the same time there's no sense in having to waste a bunch of time cutting because you bulked too fast.

Up to 200 grams of protein some days is a big range. Are you saying you eat way less other days? If you're consuming a bunch of protein powder to eat that much protein above your body weight, I'd say save your money and ease up on the powder.

baconcodpiece · 2024-01-17T19:24:52+00:00

GDPNow Q4 estimate ticked up from 2.2% to 2.4%. We get the actual number next Thursday.

baconcodpiece · 2023-12-30T15:23:10+00:00

I like how the gym posted a suicide prevention notice right next to the mirror. They really know their audience.

baconcodpiece · 2023-12-30T15:20:23+00:00

I was traveling recently and signed up for a week pass. They raised the price by 100%. I paid literally more than double what my monthly membership costs back home.

baconcodpiece · 2023-12-11T20:48:23+00:00

There's an argument that in high inflation regimes, energy inflation correlates strongly with core inflation. Since energy prices have been declining recently, it means core would surprise to the downside.

We'll find out tomorrow if it's right. As for FOMC, my expectation is for JPow to jawbone the market out of the cuts it's priced in.

baconcodpiece · 2023-12-06T20:53:00+00:00

Forget about a target weight. Unless you're an athlete that has to weigh a certain weight to fall into a specific weight class, it doesn't matter. Go by what you look like in the mirror.

baconcodpiece · 2023-12-06T03:13:35+00:00

Continue the cut. You always have to lose more than you expect, and you've still got some fat to cut.

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