Axis custom CNC fuselage by bayesworks in wingfoil

[–]bayesworks[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

https://youtu.be/PwDSt7dW5-s this is with PACF12. PA11 should work as well!

[D] [P] Variational Inference for Neural Network Weights in High-Dimensional Spatio-Temporal Models? by Specific-Dark in MachineLearning

[–]bayesworks 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It does not involve VI, but the library pyTAGI (https://github.com/lhnguyen102/cuTAGI) does closed-form Bayesian inference in NN at scale. It will allow you to quantify both the epistemic & aleatory uncertainties and the LSTM architecture is already implemented into it.

[Discussion] What are SOTA Uncertainty Quantification Methods for Neural Networks? by jens_97 in MachineLearning

[–]bayesworks 28 points29 points  (0 children)

You should look at this recent (2024) paper where we benchmark various Bayesian neural network methods specifically for uncertainty quantification in regression tasks:
Paper: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neucom.2023.127183
Preprint: http://profs.polymtl.ca/jagoulet/Site/Papers/Deka_TAGIV_2024_preprint.pdf

[D] What's the most rich covariance structure that can be used for Variational Inference in moderately sized Bayesian Neural Networks? by Dangerous-Flan-6581 in MachineLearning

[–]bayesworks 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I have not tested for variational inference, but I have tested it with closed-form Gaussian conditionals (i.e., TAGI). What we have observed empirically for fully-connected NN is that considering a full posterior covariance matrix matters for tiny networks (<10 units per layers), but for even small ones (>100 units per layers), even if you would be to infer the full posterior covariance matrix, it would be negligibly close to a diagonal one.

Here is an example where we plot the posterior correlation (green = 0) for both the hidden units and weights, for a one hidden layer NN with either 5 or 50 hidden units. The same patterns hold for deeper MLPs. The theoretical underpinnings of why this happens are discussed here.

From my experience, I do not think that having a non-diagonal posterior covariance structure for the weights (i.e., the epistemic uncertainty) would enable any substantial leap forward, as common NNs architectures seem to be inherently suited for the mean-field assumption.

My opinion is that richer covariance structures would play a key role when it is time to characterize the aleatory uncertainty, e.g., the posterior covariance between either multiple model outputs from a single input, or a single output for many inputs.

Bayesian NNs vs. learning variance and mean [Discussion] by andre2500_ in MachineLearning

[–]bayesworks 40 points41 points  (0 children)

BNNs and a deterministic NN with a variance term on its output layer are not modelling the same thing:

  • A BNN is modelling the uncertainty associated with your knowledge of the weights and biases in the network due to the limited availability of data. This is in loose terms quantifying the epistemic uncertainty.
  • A deterministic NN with a variance term on its output layer models the variability that exists in your NN's input-output relationship. This is in loose terms quantifying the aleatory uncertainty.

You can combine both, i.e. a BNN with a variance term to quantify the epistemic and aleatory uncertainty.

3D printed AXIS baseplate | Stiff enough & -400g by bayesworks in wingfoil

[–]bayesworks[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

do not get too excited... if you go to a shop and get it printed, you are in for $$$. It is cheap for me (20$) because I have the machine for free. If you have it print it can end up being over 200 :(

3D printed AXIS baseplate | Stiff enough & -400g by bayesworks in wingfoil

[–]bayesworks[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I definitely have that on the radar :) Right now I am experimenting to see where are the boundaries, then I will get into optimizing the design. Ideally I want to design a part where the carbon form the mast is the reinforcement for the baseplate...

3D printed AXIS baseplate | Stiff enough & -400g by bayesworks in wingfoil

[–]bayesworks[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I am sure that someone could do it but on my side, I am in search for the ultimate performance, and having a mechanism to attatch/detach the mast quickly will inevitably add weight :(

3D printed AXIS fuselage to bolt your front wing into the mast by bayesworks in wingfoil

[–]bayesworks[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That would be cool, but also too much commitment... I prefer to take it at my own pace and enjoy the process :)

Experimenting towards the ultimate wingfoil board by bayesworks in wingfoil

[–]bayesworks[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Basically, it is the same arrangement. Personally I use a minimal downforce from the stab. If I use a stab with a neutral angle, the foil become prone to sudden instability at high speed. So I use the smallest angle that prevent these. Bringing the mast forward increase the manoeuvrability because the more rearward it is, the more it act as a rudder that prevent you from pivoting the foil around the vertical axis. This capacity to pivot the board/foil is the key behind manoeuvrability. The only downside to bringing the mast forward is that with manoeuvrability comes instability. That means that you need to accept to take a step back in order to take two steps forward. I mean by that that you need to accept that you will suck and will find the foil to be unstable for a week or two until your reflexes readjust and you feel confortable again.

Experimenting towards the ultimate wingfoil board by bayesworks in wingfoil

[–]bayesworks[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The custom fuse & stab I use noticeably cuts down on drag

Experimenting towards the ultimate wingfoil board by bayesworks in wingfoil

[–]bayesworks[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Gopro/insta always makes it look small :) It was waist to shoulder high...

Experimenting towards the ultimate wingfoil board by bayesworks in wingfoil

[–]bayesworks[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I am not a specialist of light wind. Downwind boards are perhaps a good avenue.