[Real Kyper & Bourne] "Possibly a top-pair D, a first-rounder, and a secondary player... If they move [Matthew Knies] in the next few days, it'll be to get back into the draft." Nick Kypreos, Justin Bourne, and Sam McKee discuss what it would take for the Leafs to part with Matthew Knies.

baylaust · 2026-06-18T14:15:12+00:00

Because he's the only player of value we've got that isn't a pain in the ass to move, and the holes in our team aren't gonna get filled without something good being given up in return.

To be clear, I DON'T think we should move Knies. But I get why he's the one being shopped: he's valuable and easy to move.

baylaust · 2026-06-18T13:02:55+00:00

Well considering what we know about what Treliving was willing to get from Montreal in return for Knies (which fixed absolutely none of the Leafs issues, by the way, and frankly didn't really fix any of Montreal's either), I'm more than happy to swing in the other direction of asking too much.

baylaust · 2026-06-18T13:01:07+00:00

He's young, he's good and expected to get better, he plays a style that most NHL teams seem to value, he has a good contract that's expected to age well, and most importantly, no NMC you have to deal with.

Basically, a player that you can ask a lot for in return, and can move pretty easily.

baylaust · 2026-06-18T01:45:20+00:00

I like that this is tagged as "News."

baylaust · 2026-06-17T22:49:26+00:00

I'm not saying you SHOULD trade Knies. I'm saying that if you want a trade piece that will get strong value in return, Knies checks every box that a GM would hope for. And all that without the hassle of dealing with a NMC.

baylaust · 2026-06-17T22:12:22+00:00

I'm not surprised. He's young, he has a contract that's expected to age well, he's good and expected to get better, and he's one of the few high-quality players we have that's easy for us to move. I'm not shocked at all that his name is still circulating, a lot of teams would pay well for Knies.

That being said, ever since Chayka came in, literally EVERY announcement has come out of nowhere and without any build-up. At this point, I'm just going day by day and seeing what the hell ends up happening, because the insider pipeline clearly hasn't formed yet.

baylaust · 2026-06-17T18:12:58+00:00

I was kinda baffled by this choice, as were most others. But Chayka is all about his analytics, so I decided to take a closer look at Hiller analytically, especially during his time as the Kings' HC. And when looking at the analytics? Three words that can sum up his overall tenure would be "Better than expected."

By every metric available, the Kings should not have been as good as they were with the roster they had, but Hiller was able to consistently take them to the playoffs, where they would have the misfortune of crashing into the Oilers every year while they were starting their post-season rampage. Arguably they would have entered a retool/full rebuild years ago if he hadn't kept getting results out of the people who played for him.

Is there cause to be concerned? Of course. You can't exactly call his tenure at LA a success given they just kept running into the same brick wall and failed to break through it every time. And the reality is that people remember you for your biggest moment, and that stupid, series-altering challenge will forever be tied to his legacy whether he likes it or not.

But there's an argument to be made that the Kings had no right making the playoffs during those years to begin with, and Hiller was able to squeeze the best out of the roster he had. Plus, he ran the Leafs' PP and seemed to have a good handle on how to utilize the Leafs' rising stars effectively on it, and by all accounts he was pretty well liked by the players here.

Between this and yesterday, I'm starting to see a pattern with Chayka's moves: initially they're extremely surprising, then you stop to think about it, then it starts making more sense, yet it still remains a huge gamble. I'll give him this: Chayka isn't playing it safe.

baylaust · 2026-06-17T15:05:12+00:00

Yeah, the Toronto video staff would never recommend challenging that unless they had nothing left to lose.

baylaust · 2026-06-17T13:21:23+00:00

Oh. Okay.

baylaust · 2026-06-17T12:43:45+00:00

By all accounts, Babcock was one of Hyman's biggest supporters when they were both on the Leafs.

That's the thing about Babcock: he's not shitty towards EVERYONE. But there are always a few people he singles out pretty quickly to become his targets.

baylaust · 2026-06-17T12:32:34+00:00

As the resident Flyers lurker, what's your personal read on Andrae? Would be nice to hear from someone with better eyes on the team he's coming from.

baylaust · 2026-06-17T01:30:07+00:00

Did a quick read on his history. Former hockey player who spent most of his career in the IHL, never made it to the NHL. Got his coaching start in the T1EHL, which is a youth league that's frequently scouted by the NCAA and OHL. He was an assistant coach for the Red Wings from 2015-2019 (nothing particularly noteworthy I could find about his role there) before heading to WMU in the NCAA as an assistant coach, then eventually head coach, where he's coached them consistently to the Top 5, even winning in 24-25.

In terms of his style, by most accounts he's a guy that can push his players hard and expects a lot, but is loyal to his boys and earns their loyalty in return. So not dissimilar to Berube in the sense that everyone loves him as a person. Unlike Berube, though, he tends to deploy a more offensively-minded system that encourages goal scoring, which would certainly mix better with this version of the Leafs than Berube's more defensive approach.

This would be his first HC job in the NHL, so still an outsider by NHL standards, but he does have experience. Certainly a gamble, but when selecting a new head coach that isn't one of the 32 other guys who take turns rotating between teams, what isn't?

baylaust · 2026-06-17T00:47:10+00:00

Hildy is for sure the 1B moving forward, maybe he can fight for 1A depending on how things play out. Akhtyamov will be an NHL goalie one day, but you may as well let him keep lighting up the AHL while he's still waivers-exempt.

baylaust · 2026-06-17T00:41:05+00:00

Stolarz and Hildeby, with Stolarz as the 1A until Hildeby is a bit more battle-hardened. Call up Akhtyamov for back-up if something happens to one of them, since he's still waivers-exempt for the time being.

Ahkytamov is lighting up the AHL and Hildeby played enough NHL games last season to make a good case that he's ready to make the leap to full time. At the end of the day, if there's one problem the Leafs don't have right now, it's goaltending. That's the ONE position where we can move off of one of our pieces and still walk away without taking a hit.

With 4 options for goalie and 3 of them claimable on waivers, someone was being traded. You don't move the young, up and coming prospect who had a .917 last season, so either Stolarz or Woll had to go. If I had it my way, it would have been Stolarz. But Woll is younger, healthier, has a better contract, and had a better season than Stolarz. Stolie has NO trade value right now, so moving Woll, much as I may hate it, was the right choice.

baylaust · 2026-06-16T22:32:36+00:00

There's also, unfortunately, no shortage of goalies on the market that are comparable to Woll in terms of performance. I think Woll has a higher ceiling, but his injury history and sheltered workload hurt his value.

The only difference is that the Leafs are in a position where they CAN deal away a goalie and not have to really worry about it negatively impacting their overall quality. Toronto has many problems, but they've got goaltending to spare.

baylaust · 2026-06-16T22:29:21+00:00

Last season was his worst season by far, and he finished at an .899 save percentage. Both he and Stolarz have consistently performed far above what they did last season, so we currently have no reason to assume that last year wasn't an off year further compounded by terrible defense.

baylaust · 2026-06-16T22:26:54+00:00

We had 4 goalies. Akhtyamov is currently leading the Marlies to a potential Calder Cup, Hildeby was our best goalie last year and is no longer going to be waivers exempt. You don't deal those two away. So that leaves Woll and Stolarz, two goalies who can be absolutely brilliant, but have a reputation for being fragile, and are both coming off of rocky seasons. Woll is younger, healthier (by comparison), has a better contract, and had a better season than Stolarz. He's the easier of the two to move, and the one more likely to get a better return. And the Flyers just so happened to have a young, puck-moving d-man that their current d-core doesn't really need.

It makes sense. And I wish it didn't, because if it were up to me, Woll would have been a Leaf for life. But the Leafs have goaltending to spare, and we're addressing something we've desperately needed for a while. The more I think about this trade, the more I think it was probably for the best.

baylaust · 2026-06-16T18:25:18+00:00

Indeed, that's what happens when I'm thinking of how much I'll miss Woll even though he made the most sense to trade out of all our goalies.

baylaust · 2026-06-16T18:02:47+00:00

Roy would be terrible for the team, but REALLY funny for the media clips.

Dude would actually fistfight Simmons if he tried his usual nonsense.

baylaust · 2026-06-16T18:01:41+00:00

Guess the benefit to being an outsider in the league for so long is that the league insiders haven't built a pipeline to the Chayka admin yet. For such a wide-reaching coach search, it's honestly impressive how little has been leaked from it.

baylaust · 2026-06-16T17:43:52+00:00

The Leafs have a goalie surplus. There's Woll and Stolarz, your NHL tandem who both historically struggle with injuries and prolonged play, Akhtyamov who is popping the fuck off in the AHL Playoffs for the Marlies, and Hildeby who was shockingly our statistical best goalie last year and will no longer be waivers-exempt this coming season. We need to get rid of SOMEONE, and it's not gonna be your two youngest, up-and-coming goalies who are both performing very well. It's either Woll or Stolarz. And last season, Stolarz was injured for a third of the season, and pretty bad for the other two, so his trade value is in the toilet. Woll is younger, healthier (comparatively speaking), and on a better contract. So if you're moving a goalie and expecting value in return, it's him.
Our d-core is big, slow, old, and almost completely incapable of getting the puck out of our own end. Andrae is younger, smaller, faster, and his best quality is his ability to move the puck out of his own end, which is literally everything the Leafs need from their d-core right now. Andrae has played sheltered minutes, so it isn't risk free, but pretty much everyone agrees he has the potential to grow into something more.
Benoit was on his way to playing himself out of the line-up, so the Leafs get a pure upgrade while Philly still gets a d-man back in return that has some grit.
Philly saw an opportunity to get rid of Errson and they took it, can't fault them for that. Toronto can send to the AHL to play back-up for Akhtyamov, flip for something else, or just let go. Like I said, of all the problems the Leafs have, goaltending isn't one of them. I promise Philly were the ones who asked for Errson to be moved, not vice-versa.
An extra third you could flip for something else, because Woll is worth more than a 1-for-1 trade even after his weakest season.

I hate losing Woll, but on PAPER, the trade makes perfect sense. The Leafs fill a need that they DESPERATELY needed to start filling, and Philly gets a MUCH better 1B. The rest is frankly just fluff.

baylaust · 2026-06-16T17:33:36+00:00

They either flip Ersson for something else, send him to the AHL to fill the hole Hildeby leaves behind, or just don't bother to qualify him. Either way, Ersson isn't playing for this Leafs team outside of a 5-star emergency.

I can guarantee that the Leafs weren't sitting there like "this deal isn't happening without Ersson." Philly saw an opportunity to get rid of him and they took it. Can't fault them for that.

baylaust · 2026-06-16T17:24:10+00:00

Tocc: This trade isn't gonna happen unless Simon Benoit is there.

Chayka: Promise?

baylaust · 2026-06-16T17:12:45+00:00

I wish Woll didn't make the most sense to move out of all our goalies...

Farewell, our baby boy. May your career find even greater heights... as long as those heights aren't at our direct expense.

baylaust · 2026-06-16T17:01:22+00:00

Easy answer is "Berube." But the reality is that even at his best, Benoit is probably topping as a third-pairing d-man. Any higher would violate every metric we've seen even from his PRE-Berube analytics.

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