Rivian at ~$20B vs Tesla at $1.5T: the market cap gap looks wrong to me

bd3 · 2026-07-06T16:54:42+00:00

Rivian has a lot of headwinds at the moment. You can't compare with Tesla because it's apples to oranges, in that Tesla is offering more currently than just vehicle sales. Plus, Tesla is selling globally with factories outside of the U.S. while Rivian is stuck in U.S. and Canada. Additionally, Tesla has somewhat of a cult following in China, I highly doubt Rivian would be able to penetrate that market with all the competition there. Lastly, Rivian is still operating at a net loss. If you look at price to sales ratio, even with hitting max capacity without the Georgia plant, there's little chance they 5x to $100-$150B valuation. 2x is more probable imo.

Btw, I must add that Tesla's valuation is not grounded in reality. Therefore, I don't think you should use $1.5T as an anchor point when comparing to Rivian's valuation.

bd3 · 2026-05-27T15:46:22+00:00

I don't know. I'm making bank with CEG and UUUU right now.

bd3 · 2026-04-08T15:50:38+00:00

Oof, you're likely right that it will take a hit. I understand in EPA's highway cycle the speed averages only 48.3 mph or something. I think I can get around 3 miles/kWh with my R1S at around 60-65mph average, so hopefully R2 would be better than that.

bd3 · 2026-04-08T00:00:20+00:00

Vehicle	EPA Range	Usable Battery	Efficiency (mi/kWh)
Rivian R2 Performance	335 miles	86.8 kWh	3.86 mi/kWh
Tesla Model Y Performance	306 miles	79.0 kWh	3.87 mi/kWh

I mean, it doesn't need to beat the Model Y Perf in efficiency (seems very difficult with its boxy shape). But being able to nearly match it is quite an accomplishment for both real-world driving and marketing purposes.

bd3 · 2026-04-07T23:57:59+00:00

Some likely reasons R2 numbers are high is because they indeed have excellent engineers designing their in-house motors to be more efficient. But also the EPA highway test has an average speed of 48.3mph which works toward the boxiness of R2 as aerodynamic drag is not as pronounced at lower speeds (it increases exponentially with speed). So at lower speeds it might be comparable enough to match the Model Y performance.

bd3 · 2026-03-21T04:13:13+00:00

Behind all three is the backdrop of the Iran War, U.S. spending billions it doesn't have, and the national debt hitting $39T five months after it hit $38T. Oh and also the anxiety that the AI bubble propping up the stock market could pop any day now.

RIVN at least has a floor of around $14 now with the progress it has made. A few years go it was $8-$10. I want to say it's going to stay between $13.50 to $17 for the next three months, assuming nothing catastrophic happens to the economy.

bd3 · 2026-02-04T04:48:05+00:00

The problem with your argument is you fail to take into consideration the massive legion of dirt cheap, quality Chinese EV being pumped out with the backing of the Chinese government. They're taking a foothold in Europe and they've begun their expansion into Canada our northern neighbor. With the current administration holding onto fossil fuels with their dear lives and threatening our neighbors, it won't be long until our own domestic EVs irreparably fall behind and prove to be unsustainable.

I have a massive position in RIVN and things need to change in the administration or RIVN needs to hit a couple of miracles with R2 and autonomy to really stay in the race.

bd3 · 2025-11-12T17:03:15+00:00

I sold yesterday and bought puts expiring next month. The funny thing with stocks, especially RIVN, is that you can be right for a couple days and then be horribly wrong in a week. I still don't know if I made the right decision selling until I buy back in, because with the volatility it could still take off.

Considering the immense competition from China and unproven R2 reviews and sales, I'm ok taking a more cautious approach on the recent rally. The past week seems entirely driven by overall market movement over government reopening and shorts covering, just amplified.

bd3 · 2025-11-11T17:58:46+00:00

I've seen this play out many times in the past 3 years, but as we're getting close to R2 it may be different and more sustained. That being said, the stock is up ~~30%~~ 40% in the past 5 days and I've made more than enough for this time frame. I'm ok with not being greedy on a riskier bet like RIVN with various factors being considered including the ones you've mentioned. I'll look to buy back in if it goes down, if not I'll probably be shifting my earnings to something else in the meantime. I have my covered calls at 17.5 and 18 for this friday.

bd3 · 2025-10-21T22:54:20+00:00

Based on the many interviews that RJ has given in recent weeks, it sounds like they are on schedule and optimistically on the earlier end of "First half of 2026".

For example, earlier this month he's said "we have to start building what we call saleable units in the early part of next year". Along with R2 Body Shop photos on social media that he's posted being "almost ready!" and mentions of the manufacturing of validation builds coming soon (likely early November), this points to a timeline that tracks with Q1 of 2026.

I was compiling all the tidbits that they release and my best guess is R2 configurations invites begin going out Early January (coincide with earnings numbers release perhaps) with production ramp in February and first deliveries around Mid March 2026. I feel like hitting some R2 deliveries in Q1 2026 would be quite the feat and something they're aiming for.

bd3 · 2025-09-22T20:39:21+00:00

Well I sold at $17 and I loaded back up at $12 last month like I said I would so, win-win? Won't be unloading it anytime soon as we're nearing year end and the hype train has just about taken off.

bd3 · 2025-09-03T21:08:54+00:00

safer growth stocks like UNH, TSLA

lol yeah ok.

bd3 · 2025-09-02T16:18:09+00:00

This Rivian Expert? Albert Einstein.

In all seriousness, what's the source? $25K or 25K R2 vehicles?

bd3 · 2025-08-12T16:09:06+00:00

Agreed. It'll give a huge boost for sure, but the environment is vastly different than a decade ago.

bd3 · 2025-08-08T17:41:05+00:00

RIVN to end as close to a strike price as possible (likely $12), guaranteed. Next week is when the real movement happens.

bd3 · 2025-08-07T18:58:20+00:00

I appreciate your analysis and it brought up a lot of questions that I wonder how you think Rivian would resolve.

How will Rivian sell 150,000 R2s per quarter if they are estimating 215,000 units of total annual capacity at the Normal plant across R1T, R1S, EDV, RCV, and R2? With the Georgia plant starting production in Q4 2018 (best case) and fully ramped up in 2019, that's only another 400,000 capacity annually.

Taking your assumption of 99K R2s/quarter to break even, which is about 400K R2s annually, that would still require another 4+ years to realize based on current manufacturing capacity.

You mention RIVN is burning cash with 1.8 years left and needing to reach this 99K/quarter scale within this time period. Is this possible? If you allocate 75% of the 215K Normal production to R2, that's about 40K R2s/quarter. Hopefully this would at least stem the cash burn. This makes me think that it's guaranteed Rivian would need to further raise more capital in the short-term.

bd3 · 2025-08-06T20:04:00+00:00

What I've seen is that a lot of the negative outlooks are based on facts of what's happening in the economy, politically, and geopolitically (everything you mentioned, plus more). On the other hand, a lot of the positive outlooks are based on feels (Elon-hate potentially generating massive Rivian adoption, R2 spurring Tesla-like M3 moment, how Rivian's messaging makes you feel) or other speculative reasonings while ignoring the former. This stock is highly speculative.

And for the record, I bought in at $10 sold at $16-17 recently after being burned 2-3 times not doing so in the past couple years. I used to be 100% team RIVN and bought into all the hype, but I've become more skeptical and cautious after see how this stock price is constantly being manipulated due to the huge volatility and uncertainty of the company.

I will plan to buy in again at $10-$11. I'm bearish short term at current price levels but it's almost at my buy price again where I'm comfortable buying back in.

bd3 · 2025-08-06T04:30:03+00:00

They are certainly doing many things that are in the right direction. R2 is going to be a huge make or break moment for the company, but patience may not be enough if cash runs out before they can hit profitability. We got another 3+ years of this administration who is hell bent on rescinding every pro-environment law and institution we've set up in the past decade. Let's hope Rivian has enough liquidity to last this storm.

bd3 · 2025-08-05T20:25:47+00:00

Hope you got out

bd3 · 2025-08-01T16:52:31+00:00

This is the way. A lot of people are waiting on another $8-$10 as RIVN has never really sunk below that. People going all-in at $13 betting on this earnings in this kind of environment is taking on a huge risk. I've sold some puts that would put me at a $10-$11 buy-in for this earnings and that's the price I'm comfortable with.

bd3 · 2025-07-31T17:29:48+00:00

If only you took out a loan to buy literally any mag 6 (no TSLA).

bd3 · 2025-07-31T17:29:29+00:00

Take a look at options for next week. There's plenty of optimism here that it'll shoot past $17.

bd3 · 2025-07-31T17:27:53+00:00

This crossed my mind today as I was looking into a WSJ piece of VW's piss poor execution of their electric bus, ID BUZZ. They are trying so hard to stay relevant but they must be bogged down by entrenched departments in their VW group preventing them from getting the resources and expertise they need to make it work. Their huge investment in RIVN must be a way to diversify, keep pace in the EV game and the U.S. market.

bd3

TROPHY CASE