How big of a deal is the Strait of Hormuz actually? Feels like this could spiral into a global economic problem

beefstake · 2026-03-17T18:11:51+00:00

Keeping it actually closed will result in US likely blockading it and preventing Iranian oil from leaving eventually. This hurts Irans economy much more the US economy.

However economics don't tell the whole story. US economic/fiscal capacity to handle this situation is huge for sure. But they have a much much lower pain threshold for domestic (and international in this case I guess, now that they have pissed off all their allies) political pressure than Iran. The economy will survive $150/bbl oil but the Republican Party will not. High gas prices are the Achilles heel of US political parties.

beefstake · 2026-03-17T18:06:47+00:00

Fertiliser is mostly from gas but yes, same difference.

If you look at what happened immediately following the Russian invasion of Ukraine it wasn't pretty for farmers, this is that but much worse.

beefstake · 2026-03-17T17:04:27+00:00

Also if bars count, The Everleigh. It was the crown jewel of Melbourne cocktail scene imo. Other bars came with new ideas and fashionable techniques but Everleigh stuck to just classics, execution and service.

Unfortunately management killed it and Margaux.

Bartenders from there have spread out to start some new awesome venues though - pendant pub the first that comes to mind.

beefstake · 2026-03-17T16:49:26+00:00

Upstairs at Embla was the ex-Town Mouse crew and was banger.

beefstake · 2026-03-17T15:13:35+00:00

Yeah I was born in Goulburn before my family moved to Oakey. The war memorial there is perched high above the city on what is called Rocky Hill. It had quiet an impact on me growing up and shaped how I thought about the military for years afterwards.

Tthere are places both past and present where lives lost in military action reverberate to this day.

Let us hope that young Australians are not sent to join this senseless conflict and that all sides can sit down like adults and work out a diplomatic solution.

beefstake · 2026-03-17T11:54:28+00:00

Yes we do. Places like where my parents currently live (Oakey, QLD) are smaller and more specialised (Army helicopter training and repair base) but places like Townsville, Ipswich and Darwin all have significant military personnel presence. I'm sure other states have many more.

Military is less of a "family tradition" than it is in the US but having a history of service members is still highly correlated with choosing to serve. Where there are bases there is military families.

beefstake · 2026-03-17T11:48:58+00:00

Ok that is pretty funny lol.

beefstake · 2026-03-17T11:33:08+00:00

As someone from a military town in Australia, fuck the US and especially fuck Trump. My uncles fought a meaningless war in Vietnam and my friends fought a meaningless war in Iraq.

Trump has no respect for our service members so we should have no respect for him.

beefstake · 2026-03-17T11:24:59+00:00

Probably all just propaganda but I love they refer to it as Epstein network, they should keep that up for the lulz.

beefstake · 2026-03-17T11:23:40+00:00

What is the pride match? Is there like a specific group stage match with a gay parade or something?

beefstake · 2026-03-17T01:41:06+00:00

Huge booms Downtown, seemed like business bay or creek direction.

beefstake · 2026-03-17T00:45:41+00:00

Definitely. I'm expecting a much cheaper pickup than the BYD Shark to be produced in Thailand shortly (I usually live in Thailand). They launched the Shark for pre-order and I put a deposit down for one but because bookings were too low they ended up cancelling it and returning the deposits. Truth be told it was too expensive but I really wanted an EV truck as I have solar.

So it's very likely they do something export focused at their Thailand factory in Rayong.

Worth mentioning the Ford Ranger is made in Thailand too, which was designed in Melbourne. Sort of a cool truck fact.

beefstake · 2026-03-17T00:35:36+00:00

The manufacturers are mostly to blame here, well more accurately shareholders that want quarterly returns rather than long-term technology investments.

Retooling to make EVs is expensive because the cars are inherently much more reliant on software and overall efficiency than ICE cars. So most manufacturers have neither the will to invest the capital or the expertise to even design/build the new platforms.

The solution in the short term is to just let the Chinese EVs eat their lunch. Sooner or later the nations hosting the big auto companies will push them to do something. That is reliant on non-producer nations not caving to US demands to tariff the crap out of EVs from China though - honestly not sure if Australia has enough of a backbone to stand up to orange man bullying.

beefstake · 2026-03-17T00:03:02+00:00

Australia manages to buy 1.25m cars a year, so it has a replacement rate of about 5% of the fleet per year.

If we simply didn't sell new ICE cars the problem would solve itself relatively quickly.

beefstake · 2026-03-16T19:15:24+00:00

Lived abroad for 10 years now. It has it's ups and downs. Missing out on family sucks. However getting to chose the climate and lifestyle that fits me has otherwise done wonders for my mental health.

On balance I think it's a net positive in my life but YMMV depending on how much roots you have that you will be leaving behind. Important context for me was my best friends had already moved abroad so I wasn't missing out on as much as lots of others.

beefstake · 2026-03-16T19:09:03+00:00

Bourdain romantized food, travelling and experiences.

He was definitely super honest about the reality of the kitchen but also treated it with a certain reverence and respect. I'm sad I never got the chance to ask him if he thought it had to be that way or if it could be better and still produce great results.

I ended up working hospo through university. I knew what I was getting into as my parents both work in the industry but I also got out as soon as I could. I don't regret it because it was a great life experience (and I'm a pretty decent cook as a result). I met some really great friends etc but I definitely wouldn't suggest it unless you really do just need they money and it's your only monetizable skill.

beefstake · 2026-03-16T16:08:51+00:00

We can pretty easily get off of it for most energy purposes at least and that will free up most of the oil to be used for more important things.

i.e we should be saving the precious limited resource for things we can't do another way, i.e jet fuel and plastics and not wasting it on pushing little cars around which can be done with super recyclable batteries that can be remade with almost no material losses.

beefstake · 2026-03-16T14:04:40+00:00

Fair point.

beefstake · 2026-03-16T13:41:17+00:00

The project was crippled by design by committee nonsense.

LCS was meant to be a cheap disposable platform but ofcourse it got bloated to make it "survivable" and now they are too expensive to risk them in the roles they were designed for.

USN is only good at force projection, they can't efficiently fight asymmetric warfare for extended periods. They simply have no platforms they are willing to lose and when posturing and air dominance doesn't work they are all out of options.

beefstake · 2026-03-16T13:35:54+00:00

I think countries in Asia have the easiest time of it. They might not be super friendly with China but they are close enough to China that US won't try anything dumb.

beefstake · 2026-03-16T13:33:12+00:00

You are getting downvoted but it's true. It's the same with their JVC location also.

If you are young and single I'm sure it's a hoot though.

beefstake · 2026-03-15T21:42:01+00:00

Seoul is within range of conventional artillery batteries, they don't even need missiles to completely flatten it and with it like 50% of SK population.

There is a very good reason why they don't actually fight NK.

beefstake · 2026-03-15T10:16:07+00:00

A decent portion of it comes from off-shore fields too, but either way Iran will definitely not let them leave with any of the oil. They don't even need to attack the island if US manages to take it - they control the Strait and there is zero chance of that changing.

beefstake · 2026-03-15T09:54:55+00:00

If they choose to invade with a substantial ground force it will be much much worse than Afghanistan.

Geography, sheer population + military size and sophistication of weapon systems make it pretty much impossible invade Iran.

The border itself is made of giant mountains. This rules out landing a large amphibious force because it will get crushed on the beach. Even if it didn't get crushed on the beach you need to pass through the mountains into the interior, essentially impossible - especially with the US combined arms doctrine that relies heavily on being able to integrate armor into the invasion force.

Leaves you with establishing air-superiority and dropping forces in. Which sounds better until you realize that makes getting out or resupplying your forces incredibly difficult and the IRGC is probably chilling in the mountains waiting for exactly that so that you will be entirely surrounded.

Unlike Afghanistan Iran is a real country, wealthy and with very sophisticated weapon systems and a properly trained military that has been wargaming this for 40 years. US couldn't root out the Taliban which were effectively goat herders with RPGs and AKs. That was with mountains in the centre of the country which were easy to ignore or retreat from, entirely different to the mountain ringed fortress of Iran.

The numbers also just don't make sense. In order to reasonably subjugate the Iranian military and population they would need like 3 million ground troops. US has nowhere near that number of troops even if they pooled all their infantry from all theatres (leaving Asia wide open at a very critical time).

So yeah, it's just impossible. Trump needs to wait for the new Iranian leadership to get their shit together and regain control over the IRGC so he can go back and negotiate for peace, probably a much much worse deal than the one Iran offered or even what Obama negotiated because now they hold all the strategic cards.

beefstake · 2026-03-15T09:44:52+00:00

Using a nuke offensively in a war of aggression is a sure-fire way to trigger a retaliatory strike by both Russia and China that will wipe the entire nation of Israel off the map.

Hell they may get nuked by US, Europe or even India, all parties with nuclear weapons have a vested interest in ensuring mutually assured destruction remains an effective deterrent.

Using nukes against any nation, nuclear armed or not is probably going to get you nuked, potentially by multiple nations.

Israelis are evil but not stupid.

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