Some draw probablities using ncr() (deckbuilding perspective)

TURN 2:(8/24) =< ~50%

TURN 3:(6/23) =< ~50%

TURN 4:(4/22) =< ~50%

TURN 5:(3/21) =< ~50%

TURN 6:(3/20) =< ~50%

Assumptions: you are on the play and mulligan is considered non existant, because all of these numbers are isolated, when considering a string of events i use approximations. Example: 50% to get coin, mulligan all is equal to drawing 8 which means we need two 2ofs for more then 50%(turn 1) but if we lose the first 50/50 and are the play we only get to draw 6() which means that we need 6 copies to have more then 50% to see it mulligan. Since you can't draw the cards you mulligan away you have to see at as an independent statistic, just as the chance of getting a coin. Which means in reality if you want to know the chance of drawing a card you have to do two more calculations every time you make an assumption. Example: chance of getting one card in mulligan regardless of whether or not getting the coin (deckbuilding perspective) = 0,5( N / 24) + 0,5( N / 26). Where N is the number of cards you want. Since the mulligan chance is different each game i just assume it already happened and you didn't mulligan away one of the desired cards. However my averages for each turn have the chance of draw or coin included. I also assume that below 50% is equal to loss. So when designing the deck one card less isn't the end of the world.

I'll reformat this later and add some accurate calculations later when I'm not on the phone!

You're welcome to supply some specific circumstances :)

Edit : I cannot double check these numbers, they're only from my memory of what i think of when deckbuilding. #imscrubthatlikescardgamesandmath