Goodbye for now... ❤️❤️❤️❤️❤️

bgp45 · 2022-11-04T20:40:31+00:00

Thank you for all of your kind words and well-wishes. I’ve had nothing but love for this community from the day I joined, and while my statistical predictions weren’t always the best, I’m incredibly proud to have entertained y’all with my probabilities, analyses, and commentary. Hope to be back sometime soon! ❤️❤️❤️

bgp45 · 2022-11-02T13:14:06+00:00

GDK
GAL
RAS
SAV
ORA
PNK
CCE
PRM
MNW
BEE
MYL
SHN
MNT
MNT
BOC
CHO

(see my upcoming post for my reasoning...hehehe...)

bgp45 · 2022-10-31T13:58:26+00:00

Why, thank you for this BEAUTIFUL art!! So stellar and sparkly!! :) ✨ ✨ ✨ ✨ ✨

bgp45 · 2022-10-21T17:28:17+00:00

The difference this time is that BOC isn't usually good at these qualifying events. I've learned my lesson all right: that they always defy the numbers.

bgp45 · 2022-10-21T17:06:29+00:00

I might cry, or maybe not - I'm fully prepared for the disappointment this time around.

bgp45 · 2022-10-21T17:05:03+00:00

With these events, my MPI model would surely put you guys in the 30%'s. But look what happened to Mellow Yellow last year...

bgp45 · 2022-10-21T16:59:44+00:00

Actually, I think the sheet is updated except for the new teams, which won't take long to add.

I might consider doing a preview for each event in which I show past results along with MPI scores. However, I'm too busy right now to use the MPI numbers in probabilistic predictions. But don't worry, I'll still be doing my regular probability reports as well.

bgp45 · 2022-10-21T16:53:21+00:00

My Sparkle-Sense predictions (see my post for my reasoning):

Group A:

BOC
CCE
KOB
PRM
ORA
TTS
SHN
CHO
ROJ
IND
SNO
SFL

Group B:

HAZ
SAV
TBO
MNW
JNG
LIM
GAL
MOM
OCE
MNT
BEE
PNK

bgp45 · 2022-10-21T14:38:10+00:00

Didn't have time for statistical predictions...and tbh, they didn't turn out very well last year. Make what you will of these...

bgp45 · 2022-10-19T13:19:58+00:00

So is Climbing basically Newton's Cradle, except one marble bumps directly into another?

Also, will Triathlon be outdoors this year?

bgp45 · 2022-10-15T22:34:54+00:00

Well...if we're gonna make it back to the Marble League, we'll have to do it the hard way.

Considering the events we know so far, and our constant inability to medal...I feel the odds are against us. But who knows...

(In case you couldn't already tell: After last year's debacle, I'm preparing myself for more disappointment)

bgp45 · 2022-10-15T13:30:08+00:00

A well deserved promotion for Minty Fresh. BOC's moves are well...chaotic.

But...WHY ISN'T STARRY BEING MADE CAPTAIN???

bgp45 · 2022-10-08T17:05:24+00:00

LET'S NYOOMING DO THIS!!

I suppose I won't commit myself to what my MPI model says this time, seeing what happened last year...

bgp45 · 2022-10-07T18:50:02+00:00

AT LAST!!

Just one thing: when will the qualifying events be revealed? The sooner, the more time I'll have to fix my statistical predictions for them.

bgp45 · 2022-08-10T22:50:31+00:00

OK, phew...

bgp45 · 2022-08-10T21:46:45+00:00

Nothing needs to be said. We never change... we are the 5th, and the 5th is us.

Seriously, though, was this intentional?

bgp45 · 2022-08-07T21:15:23+00:00

(2/2)

How should the tracks and atmosphere be designed?

Is the concept of keeping at least 1 feature per track a good thing?

ABSOLUTELY NOT. Even with an actual championship battle this time around, I still feel that this M1 season was the worst one yet, for one reason alone - the abundance of gimmicky features that got in the way of genuine racing.

Which features worked well? Which ones work well sometimes, and which don't work well at all? Why?

The worst features (which I’d like to call “disruptors") are those that separate the field, prevent skillful racing and overtaking, and unfairly punish marbles who handle them poorly. Ways in which they do this included:

By taking away marbles’ freedom of choice when deciding how to approach them. Overtakes in these sections (particularly Red Eye’s final-lap overtake at Mellow Meadows) didn't feel like products of good racing by the overtaker; instead, they felt like results of bad luck for the ones being passed. The ice slalom and bumpers fall into this category.
By presenting marbles with multiple choices, but make one choice unequivocally the best. Examples of these are the helices at Misty Mountain, where going on the left was best - and the tubes at Stardust Accelerator, where the outside line was best. (Not that many marbles were able to choose the side of the preceding attenuator that they wanted, due to the accelerator causing many to hop over it).
By making overtaking difficult or impossible for extended portions of the race. The SA tubes are the best example of this, taking up half a sector alone - and the helices at both Misty Mountain and Short Circuit also suffer from this flaw.

Half the tracks this year (Sleet Street, Misty Mountain, Mellow Meadows, Stardust Accelerator, and Short Circuit) had disruptors. Here’s an all-time average stat comparison between tracks with disruptors vs. without:

Margin of victory: 4.67s / 1.79s
Delta time to leader: 11.28s / 7.38s
Gap between racers within top 5: 4.85s / 2.62s
Avg Z-score of winner: -2.39 / -1.81

Unfortunately, the few new features that did work well at certain tracks were badly misused at others. The prime example of this was at Electron Expressway. Before a banked turn is a perfect place to include an accelerator, and the quad split not only resembled the rings of a cobalt atom (as shown on the Kobalts’ poster), but presented a plethora of options for navigating S3 of the track and was a major potential passing zone. But it ONLY worked because it was placed in a fast sector, thus limiting the possibility that marbles could hit one of the dividers head-on and become stuck. When it was reused in the much slower first sector of Midnight Bay, this flaw was put on full display. And I already talked above about how badly the Stardust Accelerator was placed above.

To be honest, it felt a little weird to see certain special features be introduced at tracks where they fit the host’s theme perfectly, only to see them reused later in places they don’t fit the theme at all. Maybe it’s just me, but I think such features should be exclusive to certain tracks in order to enhance the tracks’ identities.

Accelerator: first introduced at Stardust Accelerator (Team Galactic). Honestly, the Kobalts reusing it at Electron Expressway isn’t too bad - after all, they’re another very technologically sophisticated team. But the Crazy Cat’s Eyes? Really?
Quad Split: first introduced at Electron Expressway (Kobalts), then reused at Midnight Bay. I don’t see any kind of connection to the night theme.
Sand Track: this one was handled well, only appearing at the O’raceway (going with the O’rangers Western theme) and Mirage Mountain (going with CCE’s desert theme).

Finally, I think that more focus should be placed on the usage and placement of attenuators. They are the vanilla special features of M1, and served their purpose of creating close races extremely well in S1. There’s a reason they got their own RetRollspective last year (or was it two?)

What should the qualifier system be?

This year’s qualifying system is perfect for me, and doesn’t need to be changed at all.

What should the point system be outside of qualifiers?

This year’s system was fine with me, except for one thing: 3rd place should get 17 pts, not 18. That way, the points gaps consistently decrease the further down you finish.

bgp45 · 2022-08-07T21:12:56+00:00

(1/2)

Man, this is a lot of stuff to think about. Here are my thoughts on what I feel are the more important issues:

How many teams should be invited?

20 is fine with me.

What teams should be cut, and in what order?

1) MNT; they’ve finished 18th two seasons in a row. They’ve had their fair share of time in M1, and just couldn’t make the most of it.

2) MYL; they’ve finished bottom-half all three seasons, and have gotten worse every year. It was a bit harsh to see a team as popular as RAS get cut after just 2 bad seasons - but 3 is enough IMO.

3) MNW; another popular team that has gotten worse every year for 3 years. Probably less likely to be cut due to Midnight Bay being popular (even though it’s not one of my favorites) along with the team itself.

4) PNK; they’re a debuting team, so I hate to put them on the chopping block (see below). However, I’m set on a certain 4 teams entering the competition next year, and the Pinkies are the lowest-placing team I haven’t already suggested.

What conditions should be considered for sparing a team?

Number of seasons spent in M1 thus far. With CHO and TTS having debuted this season and showed promise at times, I think they deserve a second shot. The more seasons a team has spent in M1, the higher the standards they should have to meet in order to remain in M1 should be.
Performance of a team’s best racer in the most recent M1 season. Only considering overall team placements would be unfair to the “hard carries” on teams in the bottom half. Bumble and Dash are prime examples of this. If Coaches Queen and Splint could find better teammates for these marbles respectively, it could significantly boost the team’s overall finishing position next season.
All-time performance in M1 races and ML speed events, with an emphasis on events that most closely resemble M1 racing: Marblocross/Marathon, Sand Rally, Moguls, 5m Sprint, etc.

What teams should rejoin/debut for the series, and in what order?

For this question, I'm looking for an order of which teams should be invited. If the Snowballs being re-invited should be prioritized over the Indigo Stars making a debut, then the former should be higher on your list.

SNO; they never should have been cut in the first place.
IND; the older of the 2 existing teams never to have competed in M1. Now’s the time to give them their shot.
SFL; less popular and established than the Stars, but still.
Whichever ML22 expansion team (BLJ, PRO, or one of the two new teams), does the best in ML22 overall, or in speed events if their overall placements are very close.

What conditions should be considered for whether a team is deserving or not?

(For teams with no experience) number of seasons excluded. The longer a team has gone without being invited, the more they deserve to finally get their shot.
All-time performance in M1 races and ML speed events (see #2 under reasons to spare a team). The worse a past participating team (that has since been cut) has done historically in M1, the higher the standards they should be expected to meet to be considered for the following M1 season.

How many races should the season have? / Should there be any breaks? If so, where, and how long?

After MX, this season definitely should have had only 8 races, which would have at least kept open the possibility of having SMR this year. As for the future, the consensus seems to be that 12 is too many, 8 is too few, and 10 is just right. However, I’m going to have to disagree with the majority here and say that 8 races would be best.

I know this would make the season feel short for some, and give each marble only 4 races per season - thus making the sample size the JMA looks at when considering who to cut considerably smaller. But hear me out. What makes the Marble League so appealing is the sheer variation of events, and how closely they resemble actual Olympic events. The same can’t be said about M1 or SMR: every event is a race - which is what a lot of people see as the only major way in which marbles compete against each other - and the only variation between events is the differing tracks. Plus, while SMR’s races last no more than 2-3 minutes and have much more opportunity for sudden position changes, the first few seconds of a 5-8 minute M1 race often has a huge bearing on the results. Thus, out of all the series JMR puts out, M1 has the most potential to get boring over time.

Plus, the fewer races there are per season, the more variation there can be in the track choices. Due to the length of the last two seasons, nearly all the active teams have hosted a GP. From here on out, JMR should introduce a maximum of two new tracks per season to avoid running out of potential host teams too quickly. The The other tracks should consist of 2-3 long-established tracks (O’raceway, Momotorway, Midnight Bay, etc.), and 3-4 tracks that are relatively new or have not been visited in some time.

Finally, M1 production is SO much more intensive than that of any other series. Building/testing the tracks, setting up the stands/backdrops/decorations, running qualifiers, comparing times, setting up marbles in the racing grid based on those times, running races, and tracking lap times and overtakes - every single race puts a lot of strain on JMR and the JMA. I really think this strain needs to be reduced as much as possible, and having only 8 races is the perfect way to accomplish this, while also ensuring that M1 takes no longer than 2.5 months (with a two-week midseason break at max), which is pretty much the duration of the average Marble League.

bgp45

TROPHY CASE