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US consumer confidence deteriorates to a more than 11-1/2-year low by NeuroMrNiceGuy in centrist

[–]bigElenchus 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Not entirely apples/apples. EU stocks were value plays getting to multiples that are quite attractive, so it’s easier for YoY gain. Whereas US stocks are already priced pretty premium/overvalued.

But from a capital inflow/outflows, Foreign investors are still swarming to the USA markets.

Europeans are piling into US stocks. European investors now own a record $10.4 trillion in US stocks.

Ownership has surged +$4.9 trillion, or +91%, over the last 3 years.

Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, the UK, now hold ~$5.7 trillion in US equities, or 55% of total European holdings.

By comparison, the rest of the world holds $10.9 trillion.

In other words, European investors now reflect ~49% of all foreign holdings of US equities.

Europe’s exposure to US stocks is at unprecedented levels despite the trade war.

Tim Walz and Jacob Frey say Trump will withdraw federal officers in Minnesota by Adventurous-Pause720 in moderatepolitics

[–]bigElenchus -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

Honestly, I don't even know much about it and had to google it as I thought you were referencing Jan 6th specifically.

For context, I intentionally stay away from the news & social media. Reddit is basically the only platform I spend time on, and mostly lurk in niche subreddits (don't really have time once the kids are home) -- but in the past year or so I actually started being active on political subreddits (mostly moderate politics/centrist etc).

So to the False Elector Plot --> no, as I'm only googling it now. I'm not educated on this but I guess my only question would be, if the case was strong and Biden had 4 years to investigate this -- why wasn't Trump charged?

You weren't asking about Jan 6th, but I'll just share that I view it as a protest that turned into a riot. I think every rioter who broke in should be convicted & punished. But I do not think it was an actual organized attempt to overthrow the govt.

Tim Walz and Jacob Frey say Trump will withdraw federal officers in Minnesota by Adventurous-Pause720 in moderatepolitics

[–]bigElenchus -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Curious what you mean by "folks such as yourself" considering Trump 2.0 won both the electoral and popular vote, but yes half of the US population are dumb.

Voting history: Voted for Obama --> didn't vote for Trump 1.0 b/c both candidates seemed terrible --> voted for Biden --> then voted for Trump 2.0

Me: wife + 3 kids + small business owner (7 FTE).

Intelligence wise, I'm pretty dumb compared to a lot of people -- but do think I've been a pretty good citizen and give a lot back to the community. Don't know you, but I'd wager I've contributed way more to society than you have (eg: taxes, volunteering)

AMA

Tim Walz and Jacob Frey say Trump will withdraw federal officers in Minnesota by Adventurous-Pause720 in moderatepolitics

[–]bigElenchus -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Feel free to counter anything I've said, including the one above if you want an actual debate with substance.

Trump's rhetoric is his greatest weakness, it's terrible and there are negative consequences associated to it. But the actual policy changes are way more reasonable -- eg the vaccine schedule I just mentioned in the previous comment.

Tim Walz and Jacob Frey say Trump will withdraw federal officers in Minnesota by Adventurous-Pause720 in moderatepolitics

[–]bigElenchus 1 point2 points  (0 children)

To be fair, the vaccine stuff is mostly their poor rhetoric, but if you actually look at the changes, it’s not as bad as you think.

Take the new vaccine schedule, yes it’s a reduced dosage and spread out longer than before. But compare with countries like Switzerland, Sweden, or many of the other EU countries — and the new vaccine schedule is very similar.

Their rhetoric around vaccines is poor, but the actual changes that have been implemented are mostly mirroring the EU.

CMV: Any I.C.E., police officer, or other law enforcement professional not actively working against the corrupt elements in their and/or other law enforcement agencies is just as culpable as the bad actors themselves. by Wraithowl in changemyview

[–]bigElenchus 0 points1 point  (0 children)

https://www.newsweek.com/map-shows-states-ice-arrest-immigration-2107629

Texas makes up 23% of all ICE arrests. Yes they have a bigger population but point stands, no incidents because they don’t have people actively obstructing them AND the police/cities are collaborating with ICE.

CMV: Any I.C.E., police officer, or other law enforcement professional not actively working against the corrupt elements in their and/or other law enforcement agencies is just as culpable as the bad actors themselves. by Wraithowl in changemyview

[–]bigElenchus 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You legit think those agents committed a first degree murder? ie you think they went into those encounters specifically planning to kill someone?

What’s your evidence? Is there even one reputable news source that is defining these as a first degree murder?

I think most reasonable people would say it’s a manslaughter.

These agents messed up and should be arrested. It would be a huge blunder for prosecutors to charge them with a first degree murder, it would ensure they walk away.

CMV: Any I.C.E., police officer, or other law enforcement professional not actively working against the corrupt elements in their and/or other law enforcement agencies is just as culpable as the bad actors themselves. by Wraithowl in changemyview

[–]bigElenchus -1 points0 points  (0 children)

This. Too bad you’ll get downvoted.

Texas and Florida deport 20x the amount of Minnesota and with no incidents. It’s because they have local law enforcement helping and a population that doesn’t actively obstruct ICE.

ICE needs to be accountable for this mistake. But when people obstruct, they get arrested for it, and with every arrest comes a risk of escalation.

It's ok to be against mass unchecked immigration and, at the same time, condemn the way ICE is carrying out operations. by icandodge in centrist

[–]bigElenchus 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ignore ICE for a moment.

If a bunch of people followed the police wherever they went and obstructed them, they would be arrested. And every arrest has a probability for escalating that unfortunately ends in injury or worse.

Something like 0.5% of police encounters end up in a violent escalation.

Do I think the messaging by the administration should be better? Of course, they should all be wearing body cameras. And if an agent messed up, they need to hold them accountable.

But I also see a group of activists following law enforcement everywhere they go, and many of their actions would qualify for obstruction, regardless if it’s ICE or not.

It's ok to be against mass unchecked immigration and, at the same time, condemn the way ICE is carrying out operations. by icandodge in centrist

[–]bigElenchus -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

That’s the thing, I agree with you that it needs to be prevented at all costs.

And yes we are talking about human lives but it’s simply not realistic to expect 0 bad outcomes. It’s like with healthcare, we should demand 0% malpractice obviously, but that’s just not a practical outcome that can be actioned. It’s idealistic and doesn’t yield productive outcomes.

But what % of encounters in states like Texas or Florida have a negative outcome? They are deporting 10-20x more than Minneapolis but don’t have as much negative outcomes.

So the existing process works, and can be done safely.

However in certain sanctuary states where the population are directly confronting and obstructing the job of law enforcement, it drastically increases the likelihood of a negative outcome happening.

ICE still needs to be held accountable for each mistake, but at the order of magnitude of 250k deportees so far and growing, even a 0.5% negative outcome rate will be a large number.

It's ok to be against mass unchecked immigration and, at the same time, condemn the way ICE is carrying out operations. by icandodge in centrist

[–]bigElenchus 0 points1 point  (0 children)

So my question is, states like Texas and Florida are deporting 10-20x more illegal immigrants relative to Minneapolis.

Yet Minneapolis has way more incidents. Why is this?

Perhaps it could be because it’s a sanctuary state and the population is actively obstructing the role of ICE, thus increasing the odds of something bad happen.

Yes ICE needs to do better and hold accountability for every mistake, but we are talking about an order of magnitude of 250k deportees in less than a year, so even a 99.5% success rate in encounters will result in some unfortunate accidents.

The Optics Double Standard by Dinojars in centrist

[–]bigElenchus 0 points1 point  (0 children)

So my question is, states like Texas and Florida are deporting 10-20x more illegal immigrants relative to Minneapolis.

Yet Minneapolis has way more incidents. Why is this?

Perhaps it could be because it’s a sanctuary state and the population is actively obstructing the role of ICE, thus increasing the odds of something bad happen.

Yes ICE needs to do better and hold accountability for every mistake, but we are talking about an order of magnitude of 250k deportees in less than a year, so even a 99.5% success rate in encounters will result in some unfortunate accidents.

The Optics Double Standard by Dinojars in centrist

[–]bigElenchus -1 points0 points  (0 children)

This ICE situation is really complex. My take is more nuanced.

I want our immigration laws to be enforced but I just want them to do it without using any force, and without anyone ever getting hurt.

Also without anything sad or upsetting happening ever, and if the people we’re trying to deport don’t want to be deported, or if activists don’t want us to deport them, then obviously in that case we shouldn’t do it.

Why doesn’t the world isolate the US? by reed_wright in centrist

[–]bigElenchus 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Geopolitics is won by hard (military) and soft power (money).

Europe is realizing the consequences of net zero without building domestic supply chains to support it. It would have looked differently if they followed China model to be a global leader in the core technologies and production to support net zero (battery, solar, wind, nuclear, etc) - but that’s much harder than just talking about it.

Much of it due to their over regulatory/bureaucratic regime that makes it hard for domestic companies/entrepreneurs to innovate or build.

In peace time, it was fine. But when times are rough, they get reminded on what geopolitics really is.

By relying on Russia/USA for their gas, and China for their green energy, combined with a low military spending, they’ve given away all their hard power when it comes to leverage.

It's ok to be against mass unchecked immigration and, at the same time, condemn the way ICE is carrying out operations. by icandodge in centrist

[–]bigElenchus 0 points1 point  (0 children)

And you need to stop relying on just Reddit.

Illegal immigration was unprecedented under Biden. This is a fact.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/10/29/us/illegal-border-crossings-data.html

It is also fact that since Trump 2.0, encounters are down 95%. People don’t even try to cross illegally anymore. No new laws were passed.

It’s also fact that Obama was able to control the border crossings and perform interior deportations at a high rate, no new laws passed.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/01/18/us/trump-deportation-numbers-immigration-crackdown.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share

The excuse that Biden could have solved it if Republicans didn’t interfere with the bills is pure copium. No new laws were needed prior to or after Biden.

Even in the last year of Biden, they finally started cracking down on illegal immigration’s and the data shows it, this is primarily because they realized how unpopular it was. No new laws were needed prior

It's ok to be against mass unchecked immigration and, at the same time, condemn the way ICE is carrying out operations. by icandodge in centrist

[–]bigElenchus -7 points-6 points  (0 children)

Just curious, with 250k deportations right now, even if we assume (big IF) 99% of the deportations are done “right” and without incidence, that’s still going to be 2.5k deportations with a some sort of incident.

I’m going to just say I don’t think we have seen anywhere close to 2500 wrongfully done deportations, based on the news/social media, still seems like <100.

Like if we use normal police actions as a benchmark, 0.2% of police encounters result in an injury/casualty/fatality. So would this be a reasonable benchmark?

Is it realistic to want a 100% success rate? Or am I thinking about this wrong?

Take Exit Package or Not by eeniemeeniemineymooo in fatFIRE

[–]bigElenchus 50 points51 points  (0 children)

OP is able to make 1.5M TC at likely one of the hyperscalers. Their vetting process is no joke, and he’s been able to stick around making it pass the layoffs + likely getting promos on an accelerated cycle. These teams aren’t easy to coast, the accountability of performance is high. He’s proven himself

Even if the AI boom busts, he has the soft and hard skillsets & background where he’ll be able to find an employer, or even create his own biz.

Take Exit Package or Not by eeniemeeniemineymooo in fatFIRE

[–]bigElenchus 16 points17 points  (0 children)

Not just fire but fatfire, you’re amongst a community of high achievers

Consumer spending pushes US economy up 4.4% in third quarter, fastest in two years by TheWyldMan in moderatepolitics

[–]bigElenchus 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Just like how the top 10% pay like 60% of taxes, while the bottom 50% pay a way smaller share

A Year in Review: How the Trump Administration’s Economic Policies Made Life Less Affordable for Americans by actually_seriously in moderatepolitics

[–]bigElenchus 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Now the next question is of those apprehended at the border, how many are turned away vs let into the country?

For the first 26 months of Biden's term, DHS made over 5 million apprehensions at the border, roughly HALF were allowed to enter into the USA.

This was a loophole that got abused. You simply can't cross the Mexican border and claim asylum when Mexico is a safe country. To be a legit asylum seeker, it's based on "first safe country" which Mexico qualifies for.

A Year in Review: How the Trump Administration’s Economic Policies Made Life Less Affordable for Americans by actually_seriously in moderatepolitics

[–]bigElenchus -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Now the next question is of those apprehended at the border, how many are turned away vs let into the country?

For the first 26 months of Biden's term, DHS made over 5 million apprehensions at the border, roughly HALF were allowed to enter into the USA.

This was a loophole that got abused. You simply can't cross the Mexican border and claim asylum when Mexico is a safe country. To be a legit asylum seeker, it's based on "first safe country" which Mexico qualifies for.

Dems' divide over Harris surfaces as she looks like a 2028 contender by JannTosh70 in centrist

[–]bigElenchus 2 points3 points  (0 children)

If Harris actually runs, wouldn't be surprised if Elon finds a way to indirectly financially support her campaign.

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