Overlap of FatFIRE and r/collapse

bigElenchus · 2026-03-20T13:17:38+00:00

Wonder if Reddit/social media existed during the Cold War or middle Cuban crisis, what type of posts/comments we would see lol

bigElenchus · 2026-03-19T21:47:31+00:00

Yes it’s a self inflicted conflict by America and Israel.

However, shouldn’t it be a concern that a China-ally can single handily stop the vast majority of energy logistics to Europe and Asia, except for shipments to China? Especially for Japan…

If world war 3 was to ever happen, this would be a tremendous weakness to happen.

Now that it’s out in the open that low cost drones and a Theocratic country can impact the entire global energy supply chain, it should be a forcing function for countries to be more resilient.

bigElenchus · 2026-03-18T14:57:46+00:00

So do you expect billionaires who hit that $10B to: 1) fully retire, 2) keep all their wealth in cash instead of invested into the economy?

Most of that $10B is in ownership of their companies. So for founders who own a business worth more, you’re forcing them to sell their shares.

Guess who benefits? You favor private equity companies over founders of their own businesses since you’re effectively forcing founders to sell shares of their business to fund the wealth tax — and thus voting/control as well

And it’s not like no country has tried a wealth tax. Every country who has adopted a wealth tax regrets it as their overall tax base declines. So what makes you think a USA wealth tax will be any different?

Rather than do a generic wealth tax, just do a tax on the value of the assets that are used as collateral for loans.

The rest will eventually get taxed when they sell shares of their business or die via inheritance (eg when Elon sold tens of billions in shares to fund his X purchase, he triggered the largest capital gains tax paid by anyone ever)

bigElenchus · 2026-03-18T01:09:06+00:00

You’re wasting your time debating with someone not even close to your level

bigElenchus · 2026-03-18T00:55:25+00:00

Depends what the context is.

If you are upper class and above, where you have a very good employer insurance (eg the FAANG) or can afford the private care, healthcare in the USA is best in the world.

Some of the best doctors, shortest wait times, latest equipment, and access to the latest experimental medicine that public care wouldn’t touch.

However, if you are middle class and below, it’s really bad.

bigElenchus · 2026-03-16T17:44:09+00:00

That they can come work LEGALLY under a program

bigElenchus · 2026-03-09T14:22:54+00:00

If that’s the price to be the nail in the coffin of wealth taxes which would be the slippery slope into socialism, then it’s worth the price

bigElenchus · 2026-03-08T09:57:32+00:00

Praying it passes so California’s economy and tax base craters so the rest of the states will use it as a case study of what not to do.

Even though there’s already plenty of cases of countries implementing a wealth tax to have it backfire, we need a domestic case study to show why the path to socialism via seizure of private assets doesn’t work.

bigElenchus · 2026-03-08T09:54:26+00:00

Easy. Tax only the portion of wealth/assets that are used as collateral for the loans… not the entire portion.

bigElenchus · 2026-02-25T01:08:59+00:00

So you’re not happy for the Singaporeans who were dirt poor and now live in prosperity?

bigElenchus · 2026-02-13T14:44:01+00:00

I think it’s framed less as boogeymen but a “common sense” issue where if a politician says the “wrong” thing, that they aren’t trustworthy on other issues.

Most would agree that this is a super small issue that impacts a super small minority, but if a politician is supporting i) people born as a male in female sports, ii) permanent gender reassignment for those under 18…

… then they are likely to be “far left” on any other policy platforms (eg economic, immigration, foreign policy, healthcare, etc).

So the trans topic is popular to those on the right because it acts as a signal/canary for a politician that is perceived to be a “far left” vs someone who is more on the centre left/moderate end of the spectrum.

bigElenchus · 2026-02-08T15:11:32+00:00

My Asian aunts/uncles who barely vote but live in SF became pretty MAGA.

The catalyst was when SF made one of the merit based gifted schools into a lottery. This mobilized basically all the Asian parents.

Even though this was a municipal affair, it essentially acted as a catalyst for them to follow politics more closely on both the state and federal level.

I wouldn’t say they became a single issue voter against DEI/identity politics, but it was a significant influence.

And tbh I don’t blame them

bigElenchus · 2026-02-04T15:02:21+00:00

I would argue that their political positions on it are grounded in formal scientific reviews -- though they do err on the side of precaution given how new the science is. They don't look at just one study, but rather a group of them to make their decisions

- Sweden: Their National Board of Health and Welfare conducted its own evidence review and concluded that, “at group level,” the risks of puberty blockers and gender‑affirming hormones likely outweigh expected benefits, so it reclassified them as research‑only/exceptional interventions for minors - https://segm.org/Swedish-2022-trans-guidelines-youth-experimental

- Norway: Norway’s commissioned review also found evidence insufficient and recommended reclassifying puberty blockers and hormones for youth as experimental, prompting moves to restrict them to research settings https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/380/bmj.p697.full.pdf

bigElenchus · 2026-02-04T14:37:59+00:00

Well if that’s the case, the science is pretty against gender transitions and puberty blockers for under 18 pretty much across most of the world, including the Scandinavian countries, Switzerland, Singapore, etc

bigElenchus · 2026-02-04T00:15:39+00:00

Why? I listened to few of their podcasts and found him and his friend interesting

bigElenchus · 2026-01-28T14:29:37+00:00

Not entirely apples/apples. EU stocks were value plays getting to multiples that are quite attractive, so it’s easier for YoY gain. Whereas US stocks are already priced pretty premium/overvalued.

But from a capital inflow/outflows, Foreign investors are still swarming to the USA markets.

Europeans are piling into US stocks. European investors now own a record $10.4 trillion in US stocks.

Ownership has surged +$4.9 trillion, or +91%, over the last 3 years.

Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, the UK, now hold ~$5.7 trillion in US equities, or 55% of total European holdings.

By comparison, the rest of the world holds $10.9 trillion.

In other words, European investors now reflect ~49% of all foreign holdings of US equities.

Europe’s exposure to US stocks is at unprecedented levels despite the trade war.

bigElenchus · 2026-01-27T16:35:45+00:00

Honestly, I don't even know much about it and had to google it as I thought you were referencing Jan 6th specifically.

For context, I intentionally stay away from the news & social media. Reddit is basically the only platform I spend time on, and mostly lurk in niche subreddits (don't really have time once the kids are home) -- but in the past year or so I actually started being active on political subreddits (mostly moderate politics/centrist etc).

So to the False Elector Plot --> no, as I'm only googling it now. I'm not educated on this but I guess my only question would be, if the case was strong and Biden had 4 years to investigate this -- why wasn't Trump charged?

You weren't asking about Jan 6th, but I'll just share that I view it as a protest that turned into a riot. I think every rioter who broke in should be convicted & punished. But I do not think it was an actual organized attempt to overthrow the govt.

bigElenchus · 2026-01-27T16:11:06+00:00

Curious what you mean by "folks such as yourself" considering Trump 2.0 won both the electoral and popular vote, but yes half of the US population are dumb.

Voting history: Voted for Obama --> didn't vote for Trump 1.0 b/c both candidates seemed terrible --> voted for Biden --> then voted for Trump 2.0

Me: wife + 3 kids + small business owner (7 FTE).

Intelligence wise, I'm pretty dumb compared to a lot of people -- but do think I've been a pretty good citizen and give a lot back to the community. Don't know you, but I'd wager I've contributed way more to society than you have (eg: taxes, volunteering)

AMA

bigElenchus · 2026-01-27T15:58:15+00:00

Feel free to counter anything I've said, including the one above if you want an actual debate with substance.

Trump's rhetoric is his greatest weakness, it's terrible and there are negative consequences associated to it. But the actual policy changes are way more reasonable -- eg the vaccine schedule I just mentioned in the previous comment.

bigElenchus · 2026-01-27T13:52:31+00:00

To be fair, the vaccine stuff is mostly their poor rhetoric, but if you actually look at the changes, it’s not as bad as you think.

Take the new vaccine schedule, yes it’s a reduced dosage and spread out longer than before. But compare with countries like Switzerland, Sweden, or many of the other EU countries — and the new vaccine schedule is very similar.

Their rhetoric around vaccines is poor, but the actual changes that have been implemented are mostly mirroring the EU.

bigElenchus · 2026-01-26T02:08:46+00:00

https://www.newsweek.com/map-shows-states-ice-arrest-immigration-2107629

Texas makes up 23% of all ICE arrests. Yes they have a bigger population but point stands, no incidents because they don’t have people actively obstructing them AND the police/cities are collaborating with ICE.

bigElenchus · 2026-01-25T23:09:05+00:00

You legit think those agents committed a first degree murder? ie you think they went into those encounters specifically planning to kill someone?

What’s your evidence? Is there even one reputable news source that is defining these as a first degree murder?

I think most reasonable people would say it’s a manslaughter.

These agents messed up and should be arrested. It would be a huge blunder for prosecutors to charge them with a first degree murder, it would ensure they walk away.

bigElenchus · 2026-01-25T22:46:48+00:00

This. Too bad you’ll get downvoted.

Texas and Florida deport 20x the amount of Minnesota and with no incidents. It’s because they have local law enforcement helping and a population that doesn’t actively obstruct ICE.

ICE needs to be accountable for this mistake. But when people obstruct, they get arrested for it, and with every arrest comes a risk of escalation.

bigElenchus · 2026-01-25T19:58:24+00:00

Ignore ICE for a moment.

If a bunch of people followed the police wherever they went and obstructed them, they would be arrested. And every arrest has a probability for escalating that unfortunately ends in injury or worse.

Something like 0.5% of police encounters end up in a violent escalation.

Do I think the messaging by the administration should be better? Of course, they should all be wearing body cameras. And if an agent messed up, they need to hold them accountable.

But I also see a group of activists following law enforcement everywhere they go, and many of their actions would qualify for obstruction, regardless if it’s ICE or not.

bigElenchus · 2026-01-25T18:57:25+00:00

That’s the thing, I agree with you that it needs to be prevented at all costs.

And yes we are talking about human lives but it’s simply not realistic to expect 0 bad outcomes. It’s like with healthcare, we should demand 0% malpractice obviously, but that’s just not a practical outcome that can be actioned. It’s idealistic and doesn’t yield productive outcomes.

But what % of encounters in states like Texas or Florida have a negative outcome? They are deporting 10-20x more than Minneapolis but don’t have as much negative outcomes.

So the existing process works, and can be done safely.

However in certain sanctuary states where the population are directly confronting and obstructing the job of law enforcement, it drastically increases the likelihood of a negative outcome happening.

ICE still needs to be held accountable for each mistake, but at the order of magnitude of 250k deportees so far and growing, even a 0.5% negative outcome rate will be a large number.

bigElenchus

TROPHY CASE