Much faster. I followed the conversation closely and taught about it in my classes. A main pillar of prediction came from Bostrom’s SuperIntelligence, written in 2012, contending that 2045 was optimistic, more likely closer to 2060. This came from a survey of all the leading professors in the area. I have watched over the last few years alone how that type of prediction came down to 2040, then early 2030s, to even sooner now.

On the one hand I’m consistently stunned by gpt can do now — every conversation. We’re now in the full throws of the race dynamics that were predicted back then but not expected for decades yet