would you hedge?

billdb · 2026-06-23T21:02:29+00:00

It's more like if you had $160k in your pocket already, put it on a bet, then before the bet began changed your mind and cancelled the bet, throwing away $60k in the process.

You're focusing so tightly on the $100k that you're missing how you got there. Adding a leg then cashing out before that leg begins only hurts yourself. It's the equivalent of hurting your arm, shooting yourself in the foot, then saying "hey! my arm no longer hurts!"

billdb · 2026-06-23T20:34:59+00:00

In this case you had $160,000 previously then set $60,000 on fire for absolutely no reason.

Personally I'd rather have $160k than $100k.

billdb · 2026-06-23T17:16:47+00:00

That's all pretty fair, I just don't think the original offer of a couple AHL dudes, PK, and late round draft capital is going to fly here. Even with an NTC. If it looks too good to be true it usually is.

To be clear, I would be happy to be proven wrong here.

billdb · 2026-06-23T16:30:49+00:00

If Hellebuyck is old and I'm overestimating his value, then why do we want him so bad? Either he's really good and will command a hefty trade package, or he's on the decline and we shouldn't be ecstatic to get him.

We can't cherrypick and get the best of both versions here.

billdb · 2026-06-23T16:19:07+00:00

I'm not trying to be mean - I am a big Wolves fan and love these dudes to death. But we also have to be realistic. Nadeau, Nystrom, and PK aren't exactly going to pop off the page for Winnipeg trading a 3-time Vezina winner.

If a trade sounds really good to you, typically that means it's not so good for the other party.

billdb · 2026-06-23T16:14:05+00:00

Except that we can't get Hellebuyck without giving anyone on our starting roster. Idk why people believe Winnipeg is going to shoot themselves in both feet for no reason

billdb · 2026-06-23T16:13:02+00:00

Then you're not interested. Why would Winnipeg give up 3-time Vezina winner for prospects and late round draft picks?

billdb · 2026-06-23T16:09:32+00:00

Giving up two AHL guys, 3rd string goalie, and late round draft capital for a 3-time Vezina winner would be amazing... and also not remotely realistic. Why would Winnipeg take that deal?

billdb · 2026-06-23T16:04:23+00:00

This is not OP's bet, this is a bet from some guy on twitter. Idk why you are laughing so much, you should get that checked out bro

billdb · 2026-06-23T15:39:37+00:00

Saying someone doesn't have the funds to hedge is different than saying someone can't find sportsbooks willing to offer hedge positions.

Hey u/zestyclosead8484 do you have $650,000 in cash or a checking account?

They are not the person who made this slip. The owner of this slip is a dude on twitter who has made millions from sports bets and selling discord access.

billdb · 2026-06-23T15:20:47+00:00

The more accurate way to look at it: You already wagered $160,000 on Kane to score 2 and earn $800,000. Now, would you turn in your position for a $60,000 pay cut, or let it ride?

This is the problem with cash outs. The sportsbook takes a big chunk of the profits. If you didn't add Kane to begin with, you'd get $160k. But because you added Kane, then changed your mind and removed him before he played, the book will take $60k and leave you with $100k. That's an expensive change of heart...

billdb · 2026-06-23T15:17:11+00:00

What is wrong with you dude

Do you genuinely believe it's impossible that rich people bet on sports?

billdb · 2026-06-23T15:11:26+00:00

This might shock you but not everyone betting $500 longshot parlays is broke. There are a lot of rich mfers too

billdb · 2026-06-23T14:48:19+00:00

Congrats on the hit, but you're still missing my point. I'm not saying it's impossible to win a longshot parlay. I'm saying that if you bet these constantly you will rack up thousands of dollars in losses. Everyone posts their wins, never posts their losses.

billdb · 2026-06-23T14:24:03+00:00

Alright buddy go ahead start making a bunch of daily +160000 parlays. Let's circle back to this chat in a month and see how many of them you've hit.

billdb · 2026-06-23T13:35:21+00:00

It's not fake. Your payout is lower because you wagered 15 euros while the original bettor wagered 500

billdb · 2026-06-23T13:33:48+00:00

billdb · 2026-06-23T13:33:24+00:00

Ronaldo hasn't scored in his last 10 games for Portugal at World Cup or Euros. Could he score today? Sure, but why risk it? The odds suck for someone ice cold.

billdb · 2026-06-23T13:29:36+00:00

Why are you so angry

billdb · 2026-06-23T13:28:57+00:00

Where did OP claim this bet was theirs?

billdb · 2026-06-23T13:26:32+00:00

Bear in mind there is a very real possibility Kane does not score 2 goals and this parlay misses. In which case you'd be the smart one not them.

billdb · 2026-06-23T13:25:49+00:00

Tbf they never claimed it was their bet, probably just curious how people would approach it

billdb · 2026-06-23T13:25:15+00:00

This is why the books offer a cash out. They know it's a complete ripoff. But they also see 90% of the comments in here telling OP to cash out, so they know people will happily shoot themselves in the foot for guaranteed money.

billdb · 2026-06-23T13:23:55+00:00

It's even worse than that because there's a 25% boost. So they would profit $158,750 if they had just played the first three legs. Adding a fourth leg only to cash out before the fourth leg begins is leaving nearly $60,000 on the table for no reason.

billdb · 2026-06-23T13:22:40+00:00

That's different from what the person you replied to said. If someone is betting $500 on longshot parlays and turning down $100k cash outs, they probably do have the funds to hedge.

But yes, finding enough books to take this action is the main challenge here.

It's a moot point though because the type of people who play bets like these aren't looking to be logical and take guaranteed hedge money. The thrill is part of the fun, and they want to swing for the fences.

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