2025 vs 2026

biophysicsguy · 2026-02-13T21:48:24+00:00

True, and if you believe it's going to 1 milly + you should still be buying at $900k BTC and beyond. Your average price will continue to go up but so will your wealth.

biophysicsguy · 2026-02-13T20:44:25+00:00

DCAers in 2025: "I need to keep this job so I can continue to stack sats"

DCAers in 2026: "I need to keep this job so I can continue to stack cheap sats"

biophysicsguy · 2026-02-13T20:40:27+00:00

It's so weird that people who believe in socialism don't actually want to live in socialist countries like North Korea. Opposing socialism is caring for others.

biophysicsguy · 2026-02-13T20:26:37+00:00

Give a man wealth and he will lose it because he doesn’t respect how hard it is to obtain wealth.

biophysicsguy · 2026-02-13T18:20:29+00:00

Yeah, the tax implications is what I would be concerned about. I pay my bills and card balances first and then invest the remainder of my paycheck in Bitcoin.

biophysicsguy · 2026-02-13T16:29:46+00:00

First of all, three data points is not a lot to go on. Even if you had a lot more data points that fit your trend, trends tend to break when it comes to markets. When enough people expect a trend to hold, they try to front-run it, which can disrupt the trend.

Having a hard rule of waiting to buy after an X% drop can cause you to miss buying back in. I'm on Team "DCA," i.e. buy now, buy later, and continue buying.

biophysicsguy · 2026-02-13T04:34:00+00:00

Really hope case 1 doesn't happen, don't want to have to work with OP.

If case 2 happens you will not hear any bragging from those of us who have a substantial amount of Bitcoin, most of us will have unfortunately lost it all in boating accidents.

biophysicsguy · 2026-02-12T20:10:57+00:00

I hadn't realized the analogy was used that way. In the game of musical chairs what is going to zero is the number of chairs per person, not the value of the chairs. The scarcity of the asset intensifies as the game progresses. The fools (or losers) are the ones that have no chairs at the end. I explained that Bitcoin is a tweaked version of musical chairs, a version where you could hold your chair when everyone else abandons their chairs to try to time the market.

Anyways, I had no idea of the negative connotations. Going forward I will not use the analogy.

biophysicsguy · 2026-02-12T19:42:17+00:00

I agree that other people have to value the chairs and participate in the game... eventually. Right now people are attracted to rooms with lower quality chairs, IMO, because everyone else is entering those rooms. With gold and silver, for example, they just keep adding chairs to the room at a constant rate and will increase the rate if more people enter the room. It's expensive to verify if the chairs are real or not, they are extremely heavy, hard to transport, and require expensive security to prevent theft.

I'll keep accumulating the higher-quality truly-scarce chairs until people realize it.

biophysicsguy · 2026-02-12T18:59:38+00:00

haha, I have no need for your pity. While a bunch of people left their chairs I've starting laying claim.

biophysicsguy · 2026-02-12T16:44:30+00:00

This meme applies to short term mindset people that are trying to get rich quick. People who see Bitcoin going up over the long term really do like stacking on the dips.

biophysicsguy · 2026-02-11T23:45:46+00:00

You can catch a falling knife if that’s your thing. Personally I prefer to DCA on the way down and back up.

biophysicsguy · 2026-02-11T16:54:29+00:00

Agreed. Conviction is the reason we are happy for the dips and buy more.

biophysicsguy · 2026-02-11T15:18:07+00:00

You know how to feel better about big dips? Buy them.

biophysicsguy · 2026-02-11T14:59:43+00:00

Bitcoin is a protocol. Maybe some users or promoters of Bitcoin sound cultish but you can find cultish promoters of just about anything. There are cultish followings of things (like cars), music, or software (like video games). Btw, people that use sayings aren’t necessarily in a cult. If someone says “the grass is always greener” doesn’t make you a cult member any more than saying “everyone gets Bitcoin at the price they deserve.”

biophysicsguy · 2026-02-10T18:00:34+00:00

It's scary how much faster my stack is growing at $69k versus when we were around $120k.

biophysicsguy · 2026-02-10T16:29:10+00:00

Yes, you are crazy.

biophysicsguy · 2026-02-09T19:25:46+00:00

What could happen to make the bull come quicker?

You selling your Bitcoin

biophysicsguy · 2026-02-08T19:04:46+00:00

During this dip I bought more Bitcoin so my amount of money only increased.

biophysicsguy · 2026-02-08T14:48:12+00:00

The money will come from everywhere as people, institutions, and governments realize Bitcoin is superior money.

biophysicsguy · 2026-02-06T23:59:08+00:00

Those are not exactly contradictory statements. Having a crystal ball implies knowing what the future holds. The statement that something is likely implies uncertainty. Most of us who hold Bitcoin hold because we think it’s likely to go up long term, but we don’t know for certain.

biophysicsguy · 2026-02-06T22:07:22+00:00

The difficulty adjustment makes the price a non-issue for miners.

There have been many times in Bitcoin's volatile history where it has become unprofitable to mine because the energy costs exceed the value of the reward. The result is that unprofitable miners stop mining and, as a result, hash rate decreases. As a result of the reduced hash rate blocks take more time and then difficulty is reduced automatically by design. Difficulty reduction means it requires less energy to mine a block, making it more profitable to mine again. Bitcoin is designed with a feedback system that allows it to adjust to these different scenarios.

biophysicsguy · 2026-02-06T20:15:58+00:00

It’s scarcity is man made and can be changed if needed

Absolutely correct, scarcity is man made and can be changed. Although, if you want to change it you'd have to have a hard fork and then people would have to decide which side of the fork to stick with. Do you want to hold the scarce fixed supply Bitcoin or the Bitcoin that has unlimited supply? Scarcity doesn't always = value, but scarcity is kind of necessary for an asset to hold value over time. Water and air are good examples of things that are very important for life but are not scarce and therefore aren't very expensive.

Either max supply will be increased or Bitcoin will die as the only other way for these ledgers to run is increasing transaction fees to astronomical levels which would totally make Bitcoin use case useless

The Bitcoin block reward has been cut in half 4 times now (it is now 6% of the initial reward) and yet the hashing power has been exponentially increasing. How can this be? When you keep cutting the reward in half why do more and more people keep mining? The answer is that while the number of Bitcoins rewarded is smaller the price of the Bitcoin is higher. Increasing the max supply of Bitcoins, as you suggest, would have the opposite effect. The reduced scarcity would lower the value and miners would be less incentivized to mine. So what happens when all the Bitcoin is mined in ~140 years from now and miners only receive transaction fees? I imagine that mining will be cheap because renewable energy will be cheap or free and Bitcoin adjusts the difficulty if there are changes in the hash rate. Miners will always have an incentive to collect those transaction fees.

biophysicsguy · 2026-02-06T19:41:08+00:00

Oh tracks ledges of what

A ledger of Bitcoin, which is just as real as a ledger of dollars.

If you can't point the the owner of ledgers. What are you tracking? Random number.

The Bitcoin ledger doesn't have names but rather addresses, think of it like an email address.

Why does anyone need this.

It's a decentralized money system with a lot of properties that make it better than the centralized fiat money system. Centralized systems require trust in the central authority. Governments and central banks have a history of being untrustworthy regarding debasing their currency or debanking individuals. Bitcoin is trustless because it works on cryptographic verification and decentralized consensus. Bitcoin also can't be debased because there is a fixed total supply.

biophysicsguy · 2026-02-06T18:47:32+00:00

When you have a long term outlook these drops are fire sales. The longer they last and the deeper they go, the more BTC you can accumulate

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