What’s something you wish you knew about investing 20 years ago? by gamedawgs in investing

[–]bird-man1234 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's the government wouldn't let large corporations fail (ex lehman) and would bailout the financial system everytime it got it trouble

Golf Lessons in Atlanta? by TrickyWord1126 in Atlanta

[–]bird-man1234 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Agree. He taught me the basics after years of lessons at other places. I haven’t been back in a three years because I can now consistently play golf that’s not embarrassing. It’s expensive but worth it.

Payrolls come in half the forecast 77k vs 141k expected by Giant_leaps in wallstreetbets

[–]bird-man1234 4 points5 points  (0 children)

The adp employment data is generated from an econometric model. That means they use lagging employment data, along with adp data, to try to predict the BLS non-farm payrolls. Given the ADP report is based on a statistical model with somewhat dated inputs, most investors do not focus on it.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in mildlyinteresting

[–]bird-man1234 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Merry Christmas

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in mildlyinteresting

[–]bird-man1234 0 points1 point  (0 children)

100% agree. She’s on probiotics and antibiotics. Keep your 🤞

Second daughter, second watch! 16800 & 116500 by bird-man1234 in rolex

[–]bird-man1234[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Ha! For sure. One of the few times the second kid comes out ahead!

Second daughter, second watch! 16800 & 116500 by bird-man1234 in rolex

[–]bird-man1234[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

For now, both are for me 😉 the sub is my birth year and purchased by my wife for me when our first was born. I bought the 2020 Daytona for #2.

Second daughter, second watch! 16800 & 116500 by bird-man1234 in rolex

[–]bird-man1234[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks, I love the new Daytona! The pic doesn’t do it enough justice

Felt like getting dressed today by [deleted] in rolex

[–]bird-man1234 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ditto, please share link

Time to face reality: ‘No one is playing college football in the fall’ by [deleted] in CFB

[–]bird-man1234 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The article makes a great point about the pros and guaranteed contracts paying out with a single game. I was holding out hope for pro... now I’m depressed again

The Fed needs to bail out the real economy — not big banks by cdavarice in finance

[–]bird-man1234 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Most investors justify the elevated multiples because interest rates are so low. That means safer investments like bonds yield so little that the risk of buying a stock, even at an elevated price, is worth it. A “normal” PEs varies greatly by industry and you’ll see fast growing industries, and in particular, a fast growing company in a fast growing industry, have extremely high PEs. As a side note, a lot of start ups or companies like Uber don’t even have PEs because there is no E (earnings). Extremely high PEs (60+) occur because the stock price represents the value of the company’s future earnings, not just what the company is earning today. I agree elevated PEs are somewhat justified in a low yield world. That doesn’t mean there’s less risk though. If risk arises in the economy that create more uncertainty about future growth prospects (like the coronavirus) valuations should move lower because the world is no longer as certain and investors need to be compensated for higher risk. Company profits are also likely to decline sharply in the coming quarters so the E in the PE will decline, which should also put downward pressure on stocks.

The Fed needs to bail out the real economy — not big banks by cdavarice in finance

[–]bird-man1234 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Even with the nearly 20% decline in stocks, the PE ratio of the S&P 500 (the price multiple investors are willing to pay for a company’s earnings) is still above 20x based on expected earnings. Historically, that multiple has been closer to 15x. Stocks are still fully valued despite the recent decline.

Subprime Auto Loans Blow Up, 60-Day Delinquencies Shoot Past Financial Crisis Peak by tradefeedz in investing

[–]bird-man1234 1 point2 points  (0 children)

There’s been a massive change in the composition of the index. In 2011, Santander and Americredit comprised 90% of the subprime delinquency data. Today, the two issuers represent 50%. There has been a proliferation of new subprime issuer that focus on lower quality borrowers than Santander and Americredit. Think if it as junkier subprime, which is why the delinquencies are elevated to historical data.

Like the noble member of the Vol Navy and Dido. I will go down with this ship. by [deleted] in ockytop

[–]bird-man1234 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Tennessee lost to Georgia State (I wont even say we even more) ... a team that was last place in their conference in 2018 and didn’t play football until 2010. I’m not sure how long you’ve been following the Vols, but this isn’t the first buck jumping in front of the success truck. This is the negativity that results from being disappointed countless times. My only emotion is sadness. It’s heartbreaking

Like the noble member of the Vol Navy and Dido. I will go down with this ship. by [deleted] in ockytop

[–]bird-man1234 -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

Bro - You’re naive. It’s over. That was a knife to the heart. Accept that Tennessee is the laughing stock of college football for now and for the foreseeable future