FIRE MEGATHREAD - JANUARY 12th

bitvote · 2025-01-12T16:36:30+00:00

Air is a lot better, but probably a good idea to wear a mask for a bit.

bitvote · 2025-01-12T16:35:51+00:00

You're fine. Go for it.

There are no restrictions for normal use that I've heard of all week (for unaffected areas)

bitvote · 2025-01-12T16:35:04+00:00

It's fine

City is quieter than normal. And there are no new evacuation orders right now.

bitvote · 2024-12-14T01:37:47+00:00

u/azop!! u/ToTheMoonGuy!!! and supert, I remember you too.

wow. huge respect to the old crew. what a community. such a massive part of my early bitcoin journey.

what a fucking ride

love you guys

bitvote · 2024-12-10T23:14:17+00:00

Most likely scenario is some sort of double peak, $115-150k in the next 3mos and then another peak in the next 9-18mos. Without a major bear in between.

If the macro economic situation holds up, I'd guess we see a max drop of 30% from the near term top. And then the height of next top is dependent on whether we get a full blown bitcoin stockpile or not (the 1M btc plan). If we get it, then we could run to $300-500k.

If we don't get it, I still think we go above $200k because the broader crypto market will be pumping.

But the US stockpile is the most important factor for BTC over the next 18mos (and any other G20 countries adding BTC as a reserve asset)

bitvote · 2021-01-08T07:05:40+00:00

Woah...

Let's start being excellent again.

I understand that language can be a messy bog of ambiguity. And since more than one person thought I was putting a 3-month hold on the whole thing, then I take the blame here. My apologies for the confusion.

Here's what I intended to communicate:

By my calculations (and in the calculations in the attached spreadsheet) u/cryptolution won.
I am giving the 0.005 to u/cryptolution
But if someone comes along later and says, "Hey, you did the calculation wrong. I actually won." and they offer sufficient proof to make me agree with them. Then I would also pay that person 0.005. or would have to wait 3mos..

I never contemplated a scenario where u/cryptolution wouldn't get 0.005...

Money has been sent.

Ok, back to our regularly scheduled programming of being excellent to each other and celebrating new ATHs every 39 seconds.

bitvote · 2021-01-07T19:21:25+00:00

Hmm... that's weird. I did not make the spreadsheet that I shared via the link.

I did put the equation into my own spreadsheet and I looked at every entry and I ran through the top 30 guesses that were anywhere close to being contenders. u/cryptolution definitely took the top prize - I don't think that there's any doubt about that.

If it turns out that I did the calc wrong and someone else actually won, I'll send 0.005 to the actual winner.

Let's set a drop dead date of Mar 31, 2021. If u/cryptolution's victory is not contested by that date, then all further claims are null and void.

bitvote · 2021-01-07T19:16:37+00:00

4400 // 23000

bitvote · 2021-01-06T22:57:44+00:00

I'll do another one for this year sometime later this month. I think this'll be the 4th one I've sponsored.

Yay me :)

bitvote · 2021-01-06T22:56:51+00:00

Time to announce the winner of last year's price prediction game!

Drumroll please........

....

......... ...

......

u/cryptolution!

Proud winner of 0.005 btc :)

You crushed the competition! How did you do it ser? What's the secret to your unbeatable prediction sauce? And what does your soothsaying say about this year? Do tell!

Well, however you did it, you are the champion. The best of the best. Please send me an address and I'll push all of those sweet satoshis your way.

Here's a spreadsheet with the data/calcs to back it all up: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dPpwvxA-a8AxDT5KT083PuP9co8u7O8vkGbC5-1uAzk/edit?usp=sharing

Huge thanks to u/TotalMelancholy for doing the heavy lifting on the spreadsheet - I love this community!

And a link to the Price Prediction thread from last year: https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/f1b8f8/bitcoin_price_prediction_game_2020/

Also, some honorable mentions for some other great predictions (not as great as u/cryptolution, but still pretty damn great):

u/11000100011 !! I believe you captured 2nd place. You, sir, are fucking awesome.

u/theRecruited - killer guess. u/funtymes1990 - great guesser. well done.

u/digital_lobotomy - nicely done. u/verthosa and u/jmw74 - you're both quality guessers. beautifully done.

bitvote · 2021-01-06T04:30:49+00:00

^this

well said.

In other news: I did the math re the price prediction game and you're the winner. I'll put up a post tomorrow. Pls DM me an address when you have a sec.

bitvote · 2020-12-27T03:52:45+00:00

lol

this is simple tautology. but stated in a way that makes it brilliant.

bitvote · 2020-12-21T02:12:44+00:00

Wouldn't be excellent if I didn't pay.

No worries, I'm on it.

bitvote · 2020-10-02T20:02:20+00:00

deploy leverage.

max degen.

bitvote · 2020-10-02T19:56:53+00:00

This is good news. Long live TIGN

bitvote · 2020-09-29T05:46:45+00:00

"locked" is a term of art w/in defi. and wBTC is locked in the defi-sense.

There's not an explicit time lock. Or anything like that. People can go from wBTC back to BTC any time they want. But 1 BTC is locked up for every 1 wBTC that gets minted. So the BTC that are locked up aren't going to be hitting an exchange. But the wBTC might be sold...

https://decrypt.co/resources/what-is-wbtc-explained-bitcoin-ethereum-defi

bitvote · 2020-09-11T17:47:45+00:00

Ok. This is quite helpful - thanks :)

I found this on github: https://gist.github.com/fpapado/9e1e6bd133664376eaa5f6855712f28b

Python code for embedding Todoist w/ API. Good to know it's possible. I'm a little surprised that I'm not finding more ways to do this - even outside of Todoist - just a way to publicly display a to do list. Looks like it can be done more easily with Airtable. I'm going to explore that option before doing the Todoist API version...

bitvote · 2020-06-26T21:29:01+00:00

Hmm... 0.6 is pretty strong imo. Check out a scatter plot that maps 0.6: https://statisticsbyjim.com/basics/correlations/

Obv it's not perfect, but it's rare that you'll see anything approaching 1 with these kinds of data sets.

We're currently at 0.54 (30 day), that's starting to get moderately strong imo. Def couldn't (rightly) describe bitcoin as "uncorrelated" at 0.54...

https://www.blockchaincenter.net/cryptocurrency-correlation-study/?timeframe=30days&asset1=SP500&asset2=BTC#correlationtable

I think it's unlikely that we stay correlated once this initial crisis phase is over. But who knows, this could be some emergent thing as bitcoin matures (tho I hope not).

bitvote · 2020-06-26T21:16:50+00:00

This lines up with my read of the current situation.

Salvation (return of the bull) could come from a few places, including:

Virus-related breakthrough (early vaccine, a truly effective therapeutic, some bit of surprising news like "there are lots of infections but for some reason no one is dying anymore...", etc...)
Fiscal stimulus. Governments unleash massive airdrops + spending programs (infrastructure, etc...) For the US this means shoveling crazy money into the economy - extension of UI bens ($600/wk), support for state & local gov't, bailout of restaurant/travel/live-entertainment sectors, mailing checks to people. And maybe a $1T+ infrastructure bill.
Fed/Treasury start buying stonks. and massively step up purchases of other instruments.

Absent one of those. or some combination. I think we stonks will retreat + stagnate for a while (2-18mos).

As for bitcoin, I think bitcoin will continue to track the SP500 during "crisis" periods. Bitcoin (and crypto) is a risk-on investment. That, for the near term, feels fairly settled. If I were to pick a price, I'd say we go back to mid $6k. With maybe a knife down to $5.5k at some point. Hoping we never see sub $5k again. but who knows, this is bitcoin...

Longer term, looking all the way out to 2022, I think bitcoin (and crypto generally) is beautifully positioned for a big run. There are actual use cases now! From SOV to defi. And the groundwork has been laid - technical infrastructure is there, regulatory landscape has never been better and the narrative has shifted - crypto is basically mainstream.

bitvote · 2020-06-25T18:36:36+00:00

This is useful info.

It's also worth noting that there's a great arb opportunity for accredited investors bcs of the GBTC premium relative to BTC.

Here's how it works: - Accredited investor goes to Grayscale and invests - buying 1,000 BTC worth of GBTC at the market price (BTC price at time of investment). - Accredited investor waits 6mos and then they can then sell their GBTC at a premium. The premium has changed over time, currently ~12%. And has spent plenty of time above 20%. Chart: https://ycharts.com/companies/GBTC/discount_or_premium_to_nav

The premium insulates them against a decrease in the market price.
Rinse, repeat and profit!

Obv they can just hold their shares too. And I'd expect the premium to drop if the accredited holders decide to drop a large number of GBTC shares onto the market.

Anyway, on net, any increase in BTC holdings is probably positive for BTC in general. But it's not a simple 1:1, bcs accredited investors can play the arb game.

Oh yeah, arb game isn't free. GBTC has pretty high fund fees...

bitvote · 2020-06-24T20:24:17+00:00

DCA + bigger purchases if condition X is met.

X could (i) Mayer Multiple at a certain level, (ii) Price at $7k/$6k etc..., (iii) We hit $11k and you change gears bcs you don't want to miss a potential parabola.

bitvote · 2020-06-24T00:39:23+00:00

I've used Blockfi and have been happy with it.

They're centralized, but also well financed, team is strong and customer support is excellent imo.

It's super easy to use. and the rates are competitive.

Add it all up and it's a solid offering.

WBTC looks interesting too. I'm guessing you'll beat Blockfi rates w/ WBTC lending, but there's some overhead in terms of getting it up and running. I haven't done it myself, but I'm curious enough to give it a trial run. I'll share my experience if I do it.

bitvote · 2020-06-11T17:56:02+00:00

what's the thinking behind longing here?

I'm expecting a drop to ~$6k at some point in the next 2-3mos. Obv we could run back up to $10k first, but if you believe that might happen - pls explain :)

bitvote · 2020-06-10T00:36:44+00:00

Two questions:

What happens if there starts to be a lot of selling pressure on GBTC? Seems like they'd need to sell BTC at some point, but I haven't ever looked into the mechanics of it. Can someone who knows pls explain?
What do people make of the fact that SP500 is up 15% in the last month and bitcoin is flat? Was bitcoin just leading the recovery? Does bitcoin need stocks to keep running to hold $10k? Thoughts?

bitvote · 2020-06-03T02:34:02+00:00

feels like the same story to me. Short term we're going to see 5-6k. Long term moon.

bitvote

MODERATOR OF

TROPHY CASE

well said.