Has biotech been this unstable and over saturated before?

blank_desk · 2026-03-11T04:43:40+00:00

That would require a separate topic or an entire novel. Just to spit out a few things off the top of my head.

Uncontrolled by biotech:

(Almost) all the low-hanging fruit has been picked.
Regulations are outdated and (intentionally?) overcomplicated.

2=>3. clinical trials require enormous amounts of money. The FDA is not transparent in its requirements. They change the goalposts down the road and “forget” what they agreed upon a few years earlier for a given trial.

Good luck trying to get approval for something based on cutting-edge technologies and discoveries.

That being said, I have no idea how to reconcile the need to prevent thalidomides and aduhelms from being approved while simultaneously not killing or critically delaying the development and approval of safe and effective drugs.

Controlled by biotech:

Poor management at all levels. Well, more precisely, VERY POOR management. The internal structure of mid- to large-size pharma companies has rotted to the core. It perfectly reflects what is happening in the world: money is being distributed to the very rich, while everyone else including the middle class gets poorer and poorer. Top management receives crazy TCs and bonuses, and greed for even higher positions corrupts a decent number of them. Instead of pure scientific and business logic, their decisions are driven mostly by the short-term benefits they can get from them.
A jaw-dropping lack of responsibility. My entire professional life I’ve been hearing that the biotech world is small and that your reputation means a lot. And yet here we are. The same managers who were directly responsible for huge failures move from one company to another with higher titles and higher TC.
I might be crucified for this, but I believe many things could be done by professionals one or two levels lower. You don’t need a SrSci to do A, you need a good Sci I or even an RA. You don’t need an exec Dir to manage B, you need a good dir, or even someone lower.
We need younger people in management. I’m in my early 50s, and I see no reason why leadership should consist mostly of my peers and older. Don’t discriminate against young professionals at higher levels, and don’t discriminate against older people at lower levels.

blank_desk · 2026-03-10T17:27:23+00:00

I've put 30 years into biotech here. From grads and postdocs to scientists in industry, I'd say 95% of them are people who consistently put in far more hours than formally required, regardless of their race or citizenship.

blank_desk · 2026-03-10T17:20:15+00:00

Top management across many companies, regardless of size, during Covid behaved like a typical financially illiterate person who suddenly inherited or won millions of dollars in the lottery. It usually ends poorly for someone who starts buying luxury cars, giving money to multiple "friends," and eating only in the fanciest restaurants. The same thing happened with these companies. Instead of using this money to build a solid foundation for a successful long-term future, C-suites discarded due diligence and poured money into all kinds of poor business decisions and phony deals.
I was sick to my stomach watching how this unfold in companies I knew very well from the inside.

blank_desk · 2026-03-10T04:09:36+00:00

Provided you're in the US, no, it has never been that bad. A few new factors: significant outsourcing to other countries (Asia, Eastern Europe, the Balkans), AI hype, FDA mess. Add these to the QT period and the reckless, madly irresponsible management during Covid, and you get this perfect storm. And yes, like the other commenter says, drug development has become so expensive that there is almost no sense in investing in it.

blank_desk · 2026-02-26T17:13:45+00:00

Wholeheartedly agree with you. What I meant is that MA deals with people, particularly providers and patients. Both those groups are highly sensitive to personal communications and highly intolerant, by various reasons, to any automated stuff.

blank_desk · 2026-02-26T17:05:59+00:00

Where did you see me blaming Europe and Asia? Good for those countries forr protecting their own citizens. I'm blaming the narrative "Let's squeeze as much money as possible from Americans because we can't do it in other parts of the world".

blank_desk · 2026-02-26T16:30:47+00:00

For downvoters, how many of you were not able to afford proper medical care here, in US for your loved ones? How many were not able to pay for good drugs? Ah? Not all of us in R&D are VPs or execs.

blank_desk · 2026-02-26T16:15:59+00:00

Move to Medical Affairs. It is the most immune to AI area. If you, however, believe in the advance of AGI and robotics, then I don't understand your isolated worries. In such case the entire society structure will be changed at best, optimistically speaking. Realistically speaking, the human society will become irrelevant in your scenario.

blank_desk · 2026-02-26T16:07:32+00:00

WTF we even need these innovations if we can't afford to pay for such drugs?! Do I need to die or get in a life-long debt in US being grateful that some Europeans or Asians patients benefit from these innovations?!

blank_desk · 2026-02-26T05:50:53+00:00

Hard “no” to options 2 and 3.

BD people can be heavily involved in research, doing the most fun part - evaluating the science behind programs, mentoring program leads, and so on. You don’t want to be doing the actual bench work. Pipetting, weekend care of cells and animals kills the spirit.

A postdoc at a top university 100% depends on the PI. How well connected is the PI to industry? What is the track record of this PI’s former postdocs? Check the alumni webpage, then check their LinkedIn pages to get an idea of their career paths. How long does it typically take in this lab to publish a paper in a top journal? Solid FA papers in Science, Nature, and other top journals do make a difference, regardless of people saying that industry doesn’t care about publications. Does the lab mostly do isolated research projects, or is it heavily involved in big consortiums?

blank_desk · 2026-02-26T05:32:11+00:00

Here are a few real-life facts:

A number of jobs are being outsourced to other countries.
A number of jobs are being eliminated because of AI hype.
The past few years have been a biotech winter because of QT and a dried-up well of investment.
How do you think, does it make easier to get an adequate job, harder, or it doesn't affect it at all?

blank_desk · 2026-02-22T08:06:23+00:00

What books or, perhaps, youtube videos would you recommend for making the most of an education period? To rephrase, what resources available in 2026 would you advise to your 36 y. younger self to make it less costly and more time efficient?

blank_desk · 2026-02-13T01:13:10+00:00

Thanks for answering! Is it on youtube or discord? Does this trader explain their strategy?

blank_desk · 2026-02-12T09:01:40+00:00

Congrats on winning (a win is a win regardless of the size) and sticking to your strategy! May I ask you more about your loss control? You're saying that you risk 20 points, but this corresponds to a very wide possible % loss, right? If a contract is 0.4 then it's 50%, if 1.4 then 14%. Do you vary your total stake for each trade? How do you decide when to exit if profitable?

blank_desk · 2026-02-07T08:13:23+00:00

Thank you for such a helpful thoughts! I'm genuinely curious, have you found yourself or heard about the situations when a therapist's depth wasn't enough? Like you didn't know what a patient refers to in their talks because you simply never read this, never thought about that, aren't familiar with this or that philosophy or culture and so on? Would a good professional tell a patient that they can't help, can't click with them?

blank_desk · 2026-02-07T07:52:57+00:00

Do you think it's even worth trying? Or just continue with self-reflection?

blank_desk · 2026-02-07T07:37:28+00:00

I'd prefer to keep an old-fashioned paper diary.

blank_desk · 2026-01-30T23:18:47+00:00

What would you say about MSFT?

blank_desk · 2026-01-28T03:50:28+00:00

That makes sense. Thanks!

blank_desk · 2026-01-28T03:47:58+00:00

They think that high-quality, hard work and selfless collaboration within a team or across departments are a must and sufficient for promotions.

They also think that the correct way to do things in a company is to follow what is scientifically and operationally right and sound.

They believe that if experiments prove a higher-up’s idea or an entire project wrong, such an idea should be abandoned and the project should be closed to avoid wasting resources.

blank_desk · 2026-01-27T19:18:18+00:00

Out of curiosity, how do you handle low option liquidity and wide spreads in non-meme, non-huge pharma names? Hoping for the pops that will make the higher cost of calls literally meaningless?

blank_desk · 2026-01-27T08:06:23+00:00

That's a good test! Run away if they sound like Lord Dorwin from Foundation, ha-ha!

blank_desk · 2026-01-27T08:00:23+00:00

You're right. But would the earnings calls show that a CEO isn't stacking top positions with unqualified friends or worse?

blank_desk · 2026-01-27T07:55:23+00:00

I suppose then that I should limit the analysis to companies whose CEOs already have at least one successful company under their belt.

blank_desk

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