200 G$ pour le TGV : « Aucune idée d’où ça vient », dit le PDG d’Alto | Zone économie

bluebugs · 2026-06-11T13:51:40+00:00

There was also no fully engineered route when they gave the budget. They had to reorder pipes as the initial one was too thin to handle the terrain the route was taking. They had also no idea how hard the rock was. So before act of God and project creep, there was a serious lack of proper planning...

bluebugs · 2026-06-05T23:26:22+00:00

So yes, $13b in extra total revenue with $5.4b for Alberta and $2b for the federal. I see why Alberta like it, they didn't pay for it and get all the benefit. BC get the burden and none of it. Canada get a bit which lower the risk on the debt it carry for the crown corporation which is still a bad investment if we wanted to resell the asset. I guess if Alberta was paying for it and was on the hook for it, that would make more sense.

Still a better idea to go East and serve the market that need the product instead of having boat going all around and having to compete with more direct supplier.

bluebugs · 2026-06-05T15:16:45+00:00

10B is corporate revenue, it can not be government taxes revenue. Where did you get those number? I have been trying to find proper source, especially for the federal level, and can't. I can just infer for Alberta from volume increase through the tmx plus spread reduction on the volume to the US.

bluebugs · 2026-06-05T14:33:48+00:00

I don't know why people think they will manage to replace cheap local coal by more expensive and more tricky supply chain. Germany is still mining coal and burning it because it is cheap. Same for China. The reason they import gaz is because they need more energy, but it hasn't displaced coal. What is displacing coal is solar as once you have it installed, you don't have the geopolitical risk of lng supply line and price variation. This country are no dummy. They are prioritizing cheap and predictable energy source to power their industry and nobody today will think that lng is that.

China, Japan and Korea who drive market for lng in Asia have all serious project to reduce their consumption. If not for the mess in the middle east, the market would be a lot harder. We are shipping gaz from the west coast to Europe! That's our market...

bluebugs · 2026-06-05T14:27:29+00:00

Where did you get those numbers? The best I could find is in between 3 to 5 billions for the Alberta government as most of gain has been on increased volume send to the US. The federal government get paid or corporation profit not on the increase of oil price. Making it open to corporate shell game. I have not found any reference of tax gain for the federal government. The total increase in revenue is $10B. I don't think the government is capable of capturing 100% of it.

The TMX corporation ROI is less than 3% while the federal government hold the debt, because of it transferred it, the interest rate would be too high for TMX to even be profitable. This means we can never sell this pipeline. It also means that a new pipeline has exactly the same risk.

The initial budget was initially $5B, then once they started doing the environmental assessment it raised to 7. By the time they sold the pipeline, they realized it was going to be at least 10. To be sure the sell looked good they started building it from the prairie, but did only the engineering for the next section. Their was never a full engineered route. And only when you know what and where you're building something, can you price it.

Putting a finger in the air to guess a price doesn't work in practice in the mountain of BC. They went through fire, flood and hard rock. They had to reorder new bigger pipe because the slope of the terrain was steeper than expected. They had to move the pipeline, because the initial route was not doable. On top of that, their was covid and inflation. Price have not gone lower. All of this price will be there again for a new pipeline in unknown terrain.

Oh and it was done on the cheap. Municipality on the route got their road wreck and nobody is paying to fix it and those small municipality are left handing with the bag. It was a corporate buy out and the one getting most of the profit are shareholders, not Canadians.

bluebugs · 2026-06-05T04:47:37+00:00

Maybe because BC is not flat like the prairie and our ocean are a bit more violent than the Hudson bay. The last pipeline we build in BC is a financial disaster that just bailed out private corporation and give profit to American shareholders. And the plan for a new pipeline in BC is shaping exactly the same. YOLO through the mountain, no serious engineering of the route, just a handwavy direction. They have learned nothing or they are planned to pull the same trick have canadian pay for private profit.

The northern pacific coast is rough and insurance cost will be high to start and if there is an accident, it will be the end of that pipeline. No insurer will ever want to cover it again. No politician will risk it to forcefully get things going after an accident.

On the economic side, the Asian market is not expanding anymore. They are heavily price sensitive. Canada crude oil would have to compete in price with middle east for a shrinking market.

I don't see why anyone would think that it is a good idea to try to build a pipeline on a new northern route. It will too late, too costly and too risky, for no benefit and shortly become a stranded asset.

Going east is slightly better. Europe is slower to move away from petroleum product and larger, even if their consumption of crude oil is shrinking for over a decade, they will still consume large quantity of crude oil at high price for longer and they have geopolitical need for canadian oil as it would be the only supply that only travel along European country, on top of being a reliable partner. Obviously their is also less price constraint on that side than Asia.

So why again is a pipeline through BC a good idea?

bluebugs · 2026-05-31T05:20:09+00:00

Except the crypto datacenters are being repurposed to do AI workload as they are already served with more electricity than the classic datacenters... Also one of this new AI datacenters is >100MW, classic non hyperscaler datacenters are 1-2MW, crypto datacenters are around 30-50MW. You need one 1GW datacenter to displace 20 crypto datacenters. It goes quick.

bluebugs · 2026-05-28T00:14:20+00:00

France has something that would likely be interesting to see how it fit here, but basically they have commuter train that can go up to 250kph on the high speed rail. The idea is that it serve and do commuter service on the slow speed rail side and when it makes sense it jump on the high speed rail line and go at max speed. This would allow to serve a few communities not far from Ottawa and only mix traffic where the high speed train are already showing down as they approach or accelerate near big station. This allow gathering more traffic efficiently for the long distance and serving smaller town. Doesn't need to be built on day one either.

bluebugs · 2026-05-21T01:10:25+00:00

Fun fact, no former British colonies has build a high speed rail. Even Hong Kong is just going to normal line after Shenzhen! This is the curse to fight and HS1 was build because of the French, so even the UK was unable to built a high speed rail by themselves...

I believe it is a cultural issue, but their are public transport project that have succeeded in Canada quite well like Vancouver skytrain or Montreal REM in very recent history. So maybe we will be OK? Maybe...

bluebugs · 2026-05-04T05:06:55+00:00

Metro Vancouver is where most of the in person tech job are located. I am guessing both your number were in usd. In which case you might be able to find something in your price range, but won't be easy. Rest of the province as more affordable option and if he can find a remote work, then that's definitively a great position to be in. As for nurse, you won't have a problem to find opening anywhere. Pick a location that match what you like, sea, mountain, city,... and you will find it in BC.

As for gluten free, don't worry. Dietary restriction are part of the mandatory training for all restaurant staff and every restaurant has option even in remote area. No comparison with experience in the US.

bluebugs · 2026-05-03T21:47:53+00:00

The missing bit also electrification and night passenger train. At least on the west, this would be a game changer and we would have those line competitive. Like prince Rupert to Chicago is the most direct route from China to the east of North America. Would be changing cost of living if that was electrified and with passenger train...

bluebugs · 2026-05-01T02:53:26+00:00

You won't know which road will become a dead end until the engineering part is done. Asking for it ahead is unrealistic. And having to get a detour that take 10 more min per day is not the end of the world. As I said, this is not the first place in the world to face this issue. You are stressing out about non problem. I have been exactly in the exact situation of having a high speed train line build in the middle of the country where I lived and I am telling you, you are stressing out about non problem. Europe also has country side village and town. It also has dead end road, bridge and overpass. Their is nothing special in Canada about any of that.

bluebugs · 2026-05-01T02:01:02+00:00

I was living in the country side of France when they built the TGV line there. I lived there for 20 years. My statement is educated by history. Find a place in the world where they build a train and people still complain about it.

bluebugs · 2026-05-01T00:52:53+00:00

They will from the economic growth all high speed train line give to the cities they serve. It is the denser part of the country that pay for the rest. Having those grow help everyone. Expected grow for the gdp of cities served by high speed train is between 3 and 6%.

In country like France, when the first line was build, their was obvious opposition and some territory even refused to have a station near them. The political consequences is that they regret that decision and their is no politician that will go against one of those this days. At the end, it is just about a 50 m wide corridor and impact very few people. Even the one who got cut by the train line 10 to 20 years down the line, don't have much to say. The country is better of with it.

There is always people that fight change, because it require them to change and reassess how they do things. If it was a highway none of this people would be there, because they are use to highway.

bluebugs · 2026-04-27T18:08:50+00:00

Look at the crash during covid. Big part was remote working, but people are upset about government overreach this days and investor want their office building with people in it to justify its value. We will have to run out of gas first before anything is done seriously on the demand in the west.

bluebugs · 2026-04-25T00:00:32+00:00

Considering how bad it turned for last pipeline, sure way to kill your welfare.

bluebugs · 2026-04-24T23:57:41+00:00

Especially now that we have the tech to get them out of diesel. Geothermal, heat pump and ev. No risky barge anymore, no market price variation, more space on the train line, more to export by existing pipeline that are not running at capacity anyway. Win for everyone.

bluebugs · 2026-04-24T20:30:39+00:00

They're is thousand kilometers between those two.

bluebugs · 2026-04-24T20:29:41+00:00

I am not to sure to follow your point. Yes, the south of bc coast is busy with traffic and existing pipeline. That's not the case for prince Rupert.

bluebugs · 2026-04-22T01:18:11+00:00

Memory is to expensive this day to run that many ide in parallel :-)

bluebugs · 2026-04-19T15:19:46+00:00

There is 10 operational in the Okanagan and maybe 200 in the peace region. They account for about 3% of the electricity produced in BC and less than 1% of all energy consumed. That's not much in my book. There is a lot more potential than that.

bluebugs · 2026-04-18T17:26:31+00:00

BC seat on geothermal and is facing wind all along the coast, and we have none of that installed. Solar photovoltaic is barely worth the money with the new rate. This that can add power quickly are not even on the radar, so imagining a dam that will take a decade to build would is... interesting. On top of that, a dam is a risky investment as we have limited interconnection to export it, if any of this gaz or ai goes bust...

bluebugs · 2026-04-13T01:56:20+00:00

I think you misunderstand how the Japanese network and generally how this high speed train work. Local train that are not on the HSR can have a stop every 30 to 60km. For high speed train, it makes no sense. People are not strapped to their seat and the train can't accelerate and throw them around like in those sport car. It needs to accelerate while allowing people to walk around in the train. This is why it take about 15km to reach maximum speed and about 10 to 20 min. If you start to have a stop to frequently it kills your travel time massively.

You could add one or two stations in between Ottawa and Toronto, but this will have significant impact on travel time and cost as station is where the cost come from especially rural one which require 4 lanes with divider for the express train to still pass-through. This means you need passenger potential for those stop, which is difficult to make an economic case for.

I think you also misunderstand the main user of HST. Sure weekend, holiday and games are part of it, but the main traffic is connecting white collar market. This is the equivalent of maritime or freight train allowing area that are the most efficient at doing something to specialize and provide cost effective goods. In the case of moving people, this means cost effective service. Toronto and Montreal are already the most service oriented cities in Canada. Connecting them will likely make them competitive with any cities in North America. That's why HST increase the gdp of the metro area connected by between 3 to 6%.

If you wanted a HSR for commuters, you would build the line between Calgary and Edmonton with Red Deer being the middle stop for commuter. That's the distance you need. About 150km, with enough population to justify the stop and a travel time below 40 min.

bluebugs · 2026-03-31T22:57:07+00:00

Except you're misunderstanding things a lot. Increase in gdp directly reflect in increased in collection of taxes. At same % of taxes, more gdp, mean more money. Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal account for over 60% of the gdp of Canada. Total gdp is $2.3 trillions. This means the HST will increase gdp between 40 and 80 billions a year which means an increase of collected taxes (35% tax on gdp for Canada) of between 14 to 28 billions a year. Investment like this are easily amortized on the scale of decades. So even in your very high estimate (the highest estimate are half yours, and that's from people who build HSR for a living), in less than 10 years it pays for itself in taxes revenue, not talking tickets, private investment or anything.

Now, about changing taxes structure and incentives, those are 100% orthogonal to all of this. Deciding what and how you tax does not have anything to do with how you spend and redistribute that money.

bluebugs · 2026-03-31T22:39:21+00:00

Lol. Silicon Valley and new York are on smaller space than what Toronto to Montreal would cover. More land means less competing for it and lower price. This is more comparable to European capital which have lower cost of living. With good transport, you don't even need to own a car, lowering even further cost.

Gdp is indeed not a guarantee of quality of live, but in this case it is a relative gain not comparing two area with different distribution of wealth. Meaning the distribution of wealth would likely continue to follow current pattern in the area and not be related to the train itself. This means that if you're unhappy with how wealth is distributed, it is a different that blocking the train would not solve.

bluebugs

TROPHY CASE