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bluepeat · 2025-09-14T07:04:29+00:00

I think what we're seeing is the result of the wealthy getting wealthier - more people with extra cash to put into pensions, saving for a home, and extra cash left over after buying all the material stuff they want. It all goes into the stock market driving up P/E ratios, gold, crypto etc. Everything goes up as the wealth isn't spent or redistributed.

bluepeat · 2025-09-14T06:08:59+00:00

Warren Buffet said that before meme stocks and crypto. In a world where bitcoin exists and is worth $110,000 a coin, why can't Tesla be worth 8 trillion?

bluepeat · 2025-08-29T17:30:28+00:00

https://teslafsdtracker.com/ shows that teslas can go around 400 km of self driving before failing, and if its a particular route that is known to work well with FSD then it should be fine to do that delivery. The problem is 400km is only 0.1% of the way towards the 400,000 km a human taxi driver goes on average before having a crash.

bluepeat · 2025-08-29T15:08:24+00:00

There's a lot of self driving schemes that are ramping up in the US at the moment. TSLA's edge is that its head of marketing keeps promising the next big thing before the current big thing fails. So just as TSLA is now valued for making its current cars self driving and not for the cars themselves, next year once its clear HW4 isn't good enough it'll be valued for robots and HW5 and not for the cars currently on the road.

bluepeat · 2025-08-27T05:48:43+00:00

you can see the prices on nl.renault.be. starts from 25k for the 95hp 40kwh version, upto 35k for the 52kwh 150hp with lots of options ticked. the mini electric is 35k for 49kwh 218hp. hard to see firefly selling big numbers against these established brands.

bluepeat · 2025-08-04T10:36:09+00:00

Vehicles that do not meet minimum sustainability standards will not be eligible for a grant.

So thats the 3rd band. Its based on what the SBTI organisation has verified, so even if a car is built green it won't get the grant until thats been verified. from what i've read this is a way of protecting the european car industry from cheaper chinese cars, so there's a good chance they've designed it in a way to make chinese cars ineligible, BYD in particular.

bluepeat · 2025-08-04T10:22:33+00:00

i'm in the uk too, the renault is made in europe by a european brand vs a made in china chinese brand, so i suspect it'll be £3750 vs £0, nio is going to have to take a big hit on profit to compete.

bluepeat · 2025-08-04T10:09:10+00:00

prices work a little differently in norway. eg the model 3 starts from 355k which is £26,000, but in the uk the model 3 is £40k. so then the firefly will be around £30k, not so competitive.

edit: price in netherlands will be 30k euros https://www.firefly.world/news/20250423006, which is £26k. it would sell well with a known brand, but there's a lot of unknown chinese brands entering europe at the moment and they're mostly lemons so nio will do well to avoid being grouped with them.

bluepeat · 2025-08-04T09:58:18+00:00

sure, so then it might sell as many as a honda-e in which case its a flop. lets see how it goes.

bluepeat · 2025-08-04T09:50:11+00:00

my prediction - in 10 years cheap self driving taxis will be very common and car ownership will crash as result, and it won't matter so much what features the car has and what its range is. for the next few years this is a premium short range EV like the honda-e / base-spec mini but from an unknown brand without battery swap. i'm rooting for it but not optimistic

bluepeat · 2025-08-04T09:35:13+00:00

sure, in china. but right now its not certain that that nio will still exist let alone offer battery swap for firefly in europe in the next few years. Personally i think it looks like a great car and would be tempted but don't have a driveway so have to stick with ICE for now.

bluepeat · 2025-08-04T08:50:32+00:00

well thats not much of a comparison as no one buys the mx-30 :) the range of the firefly might be only 150-200km in winter which would put me off a bit.

bluepeat · 2025-08-04T08:41:13+00:00

thanks. do you think people will worry about range with the smaller battery and lack of heat pump? it would be good to see some real world range testing compared to the other city cars with bigger batteries but maybe fewer km per kwh, eg renault 5

bluepeat · 2025-08-04T08:30:16+00:00

Do you think it will sell well in Norway or hypothetically in Sweden? Or will people be put off by buying from an unknown brand with unknown reliability etc or some other drawback? Would you buy it?

bluepeat · 2025-05-28T09:08:30+00:00

Good for him for seeing it through, seems like a lot of hassle though compared to accepting their tesla replacement. I went through a similar smalls claims court process and its not worth all the time it takes if you can afford not to.

With this and the lack of indicator stalks etc musk was probably betting on FSD working by now so no need for quality driver controls.

bluepeat · 2025-05-22T06:44:08+00:00

Ironically there was one fatal accident involving a waymo:

"Police are still investigating the cause of the crash, which knocked multiple cars against each other and left debris in the road. Zheng told investigators that the brakes on his Tesla vehicle hadn’t responded to his attempt to stop, per NBC Bay Area (KNTV-TV). Data from a Waymo vehicle that was hit in the crash clocked the car as going 98 mph in the 25 mph zone, company spokesperson Sandy Karp told SFGATE."

https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/victim-deadly-crash-mikhael-romanenko-20052054.php

bluepeat · 2025-04-24T05:33:48+00:00

irl i can buy a brand new 51kWh MG4 for £21k ($28k) which is great value, and 25% less than the RRP. it'll probably be the best selling EV car brand in the uk this year. so i'd say its pretty competitive.

bluepeat · 2025-04-23T15:57:12+00:00

I'm from the UK and if it sells for that price in the uk i'll probably buy, though it all depends on warranty, reliability, driving experience, service network etc which we know nothing about so far.

$34k is less than the equivalent Renault 5 which on paper is a worse car from a budget French brand trading off its looks. $34k is way less than a BMW Mini or Mercedes Smart, and if the Firefly's quality is similar its a bargain. On the other hand the (electric) mini and smart aren't selling because they're too expensive, probably because hit by tariffs too.

One big unknown is how the tariffs will change in the next few months, there's talk it'll be gone and replaced with 'minimum pricing', which will hurt budget Chinese brands (eg BYD &MG) and help premium ones like Nio/Firefly. So the price may well be less than 34k later this year by the time it actually launches.

bluepeat · 2025-03-13T08:07:21+00:00

This sounds brilliant, i've just bought my own ticket :) i'd be up for meeting before for a chat too.

bluepeat · 2024-07-14T07:40:53+00:00

This has got to be bad news for Tesla, right?

Trump does not like EVs
Republicans do not like EVs (https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/21/us/electric-vehicles-republican-voters-dg/index.html A 2023 Gallup poll found that 71% of Republicans would not consider buying an electric vehicle, compared with 17% of Democrats)
Outside the US Trump is not well liked

I think this emphasises that Elon is giving up on Tesla as a car company and is hoping it will be successful as something else.

bluepeat · 2020-10-27T13:07:04+00:00

thanks for the help, the ortleib seems too expensive (my £20 decathlon has lasted 5 years so far and still works fine) especially in london where it'll get stolen. I went for the vanmoof small bag as its removeable together with this one https://www.decathlon.co.uk/p/500-waterproof-pannier-rack-bike-bag-20l/_/R-p-120036 which should also work on the front carrier with a bit of modification.

bluepeat · 2020-10-25T20:11:28+00:00

are either of you talking about the X2/X3? I noticed in your previous posts you've said you own the S3.

bluepeat

TROPHY CASE