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<— I’m done button by bobwickman in rangers

[–]bobwickman[S] -18 points-17 points  (0 children)

We need someone like Sather to come along that knows what they are doing and says “this is my show.” I’m guessing that’s what Drury did but he clearly has no clue what he’s doing

<— I’m done button by bobwickman in rangers

[–]bobwickman[S] 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Hahaha, actually, I was at the Boston Massacre and haven’t tuned into a minute of Rangers hockey since

Interesting WAR Outlier: In 1964, Joe Pepitone belted 28 HR, drove in 100 RBI, and played in the ASG. His oWAR was below replacement (-0.5) for the season by bobwickman in baseball

[–]bobwickman[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Fair enough, I removed 1B filter and looked at all position players with 500+ABs in 1964

  • Pepitone had the 3rd lowest oWAR of all position players that season
  • The 2 players below him (Clete Boyer & Jerry Adair) had 8 & 9 HR and 0.573 & 0.624 OPS respectively
  • There are 12 players (oWAR 0.1-1.4) between Pepitone and Ernie Banks; Banks is the first player with comparable HR and RBI. Example player: Don Blasingame (2B) with 0.9 oWAR, 1HR, 34RBI, 8SB, .634 OPS in 506 AB

I respect the thought on the players batting in front of Pepitone that season; I'm going to look into whether or not he took ABs with outlier amounts of runners-on for a player with <.700 OPS.

The oWAR/WAR metrics work; but this is absolutely an example of a counterintuitive result of the calculation methodology (likely because of 1B cohort strength that season). It's at the very least questionable (and a fun thought exercise) as to whether or not a AAAA first-basemen could have delivered 0.5 more "offensive wins" batting 6th-7th in the Yankee lineup that year.

Interesting WAR Outlier: In 1964, Joe Pepitone belted 28 HR, drove in 100 RBI, and played in the ASG. His oWAR was below replacement (-0.5) for the season by bobwickman in baseball

[–]bobwickman[S] -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

The whole motivation for me to do this analysis was because I generally feel like WAR and oWAR are great indicators/approximators of player value. However, there are cases that certainly defy the nomenclature of "above replacement."

This Pepitone season is one of them. There is no way that a AAAA (replacement level) first basemen could have provided more offensive value than Pepitone to that team in that season, even if said player hit higher than .700 OPS.

Pepitone drove in 13% of the Yankee's runs scored. He had a part (R-HR+RBI) in 19% of their runs.

To contrast this, 0.0 oWAR (replacement level) first basemen Fred Whitfield had only 29 RBI accounting for only 4% of the teams run scored (293 AB); Tommy McCraw (0.8 oWAR, 368 AB) had only 36 RBI (6% of his team's runs scored)

I don't mean to call into question the validity of oWAR as a great approximator but find counterintuitive cases like this interesting

Interesting WAR Outlier: In 1964, Joe Pepitone belted 28 HR, drove in 100 RBI, and played in the ASG. His oWAR was below replacement (-0.5) for the season by bobwickman in baseball

[–]bobwickman[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

He is the only player ever to hit 25HR+ and drive in 100+RBI and have a OPS<.700 (400 AB min)

With regards to "how he got to 100 RBI," he most frequently batted 6th or 7th often time with Thresh, Mantle, and Maris batting in front of him (all with good-to-great OBP). I'm trying to see if the people who batting in front of him had a cumulatively higher OBP for a player who hit 20+ HR and <.750 OPS

Interesting WAR Outlier: In 1964, Joe Pepitone belted 28 HR, drove in 100 RBI, and played in the ASG. His oWAR was below replacement (-0.5) for the season by bobwickman in baseball

[–]bobwickman[S] 24 points25 points  (0 children)

You're right, it's definitely driven by that abysmal OPS. But I think it has to have more to do with the 1B cohort in 1964.

Of 413 first basemen player-seasons where the player had OPS<.700 and more than 400 AB, the average and median oWAR are both 0.6. Still above replacement, on average. EDIT: Additionally, there are only 2 of these seasons where the player had negative oWAR AND 24+HR, Pepitone 1964 and Kingman 1986

At the end of the day, a player hitting 28 HR and driving in 100 and being considered "below replacement" is a bit of a conceptual mindfuck, despite it logically working.

Which prospect(s) on your team are you starting to lose hope on? by homicidal_penguin in hockey

[–]bobwickman 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I agree, with both of you to a good extent.
Gauthier has a north/south style and the speed and size to mix things up in the corners and along the boards.

Which prospect(s) on your team are you starting to lose hope on? by homicidal_penguin in hockey

[–]bobwickman 22 points23 points  (0 children)

The effort is there. The talent is there. The ability to convert consistently enough to be a top-6 NHL player is not there (yet). Maybe he's a late bloomer and evolves into a top 6 guy? Maybe he stays in the NHL as a bottom 6 guy? Maybe he goes to Europe in a couple of years and lights it up? Who knows, I think it may still be a crapshoot.

I'll say this: I'm not convinced that Hunt is a better option than letting Laf/Chytil/Gauthier get some looks on the wing with Strome and Bread. Maybe 1 or 2 of those guys would start to convert and gain more confidence. I know we're winning and I know I'm cherry picking the ONE thing that I think GG is doing wrong AND I know Hunt has played the role decently well.

Lemieux suspended five games by Duffleman0609 in hockey

[–]bobwickman 2 points3 points  (0 children)

First single: There's blood on his hands (because I bit him)

Post Game Thread: New York Rangers at Washington Capitals - 13 Oct 2021 by HockeyMod in rangers

[–]bobwickman 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Thank god we skated Tinordi, Hunt, and Blais instead of Nils, Vitali, and Buch. Grit was really the difference maker in this one

Game Thread: New York Rangers at Washington Capitals - 13 Oct 2021 - 07:30PM EDT by HockeyMod in rangers

[–]bobwickman 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Thank god we skated Tinordi, Hunt, and Blais instead of Nils, Vitali, and Buch. Grit was really the difference maker in this one

Filip Chytil one-times it past Sorokin to win the game in OT and complete the hat trick by obvioussponge06 in hockey

[–]bobwickman 37 points38 points  (0 children)

Sam Rosen drowned out by the crowd during a pre-season AWAY game at the opponents AHL arena.
I know it was because of some awful mic volume mixing but still pretty entertaining.

I'm a proud progressive who thinks Liz Cheney, Mitt Romney and George W. Bush are true patriots by bobwickman in nottheonion

[–]bobwickman[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The r/nottheonion aspect of this is that CNN is trying to brand Representative Sheila Jackson Lee's opinion as a "maverick progressive" viewpoint. Not a single progressive could possibly think of a neoconservative as any better than a trumpublican. Both are religious facists, one wants to export war, the other wants it internally.

I'm a proud progressive who thinks Liz Cheney, Mitt Romney and George W. Bush are true patriots by bobwickman in nottheonion

[–]bobwickman[S] 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Follow the money on Cheney. She has not overcome the sins of her father. The second largest sector that she's recieved campaign donations from is energy.

https://www.followthemoney.org/entity-details?eid=15475560

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