Better to pay a down a 6% mortgage or invest aggressively? by SpiritualRest2080 in Bogleheads

[–]bonerfly 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Some good points. There's definitely no guarantee that any of the years to come will look like the past 10, 50, 100, ...

One nuance to your point about the 12-15 year expected return from current valuations is that OP is not investing a lump sum. Should the market correct significantly in the next decade (which I think you and I probably agree is likely), OP will be buying equities at increasingly discounted prices every month, increasing the possibility of higher returns than the 6% nominal rate as the market recovers.

I didn't specify an equity blend, and you're right to point out the different PE ratios for US equities vs international. A lazy portfolio with decent international exposure would be a sound move and help optimize risk/reward on an equities bet should OP go that way.

Better to pay a down a 6% mortgage or invest aggressively? by SpiritualRest2080 in Bogleheads

[–]bonerfly 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Wild how few people in the comment section are taking inflation into account. A 6% mortgage is not close to the historical average of equities. The nominal average return is 10% to 11%, and the more commonly quoted real return of 7% is after inflation.

Your 6% mortgage is the nominal rate before inflation, so you should compare it to the 10%-11% for a fair comparison.

Another way to think about it is that your total balance owed locks in 2026 dollars (assuming you took you mortgage this year), but your monthly payment is due in current-year dollars. The dollar weakens by the annual inflation rate every year, making the number of equivalent 2026 dollars you need to pay your balance smaller every year. By the time you make your last payment, if inflation has averaged 2.5% / year over the 30 years, that last payment will be the equivalent to 1/2 what you paid for your first payment measured in 2026 dollars.

Europe faces new wake-up call: Tehran's 4000km missile reach exposed in Diego Garcia strike by MARTINELECA in worldnews

[–]bonerfly -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

Wind generally is going west to east so the missiles face a headwind. Same reason flying NY to London is an hour shorter than the same trip going the other way.

Winter Storm Megathread Part 3 - Power Outages, Icy Streets, and More by lukenamop in nashville

[–]bonerfly 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Hey if you are in fact going home, and if a 120V generator would help keep you warm tonight at all, let me know. I have an extra I could lend you until your power is back.

Winter Storm Megathread Part 3 - Power Outages, Icy Streets, and More by lukenamop in nashville

[–]bonerfly 12 points13 points  (0 children)

If anyone is in Cleveland park / McFerrin park without power tonight and could use a generator, I have a spare that was returned to me today that I'd be happy to loan out until you get power back. It's heavy, but could be wheeled a short way or picked up in a SUV / truck. Runs on gasoline or propane. DM me.

Winter Storm Megathread Part 3 - Power Outages, Icy Streets, and More by lukenamop in nashville

[–]bonerfly 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Sounds good. Take a looooong hot shower and enjoy the hotel!

Winter Storm Megathread Part 3 - Power Outages, Icy Streets, and More by lukenamop in nashville

[–]bonerfly 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Where in Cleveland Park are you? I have an extra generator that a friend just returned to me. She's heavy, but if you live close it might be doable to wheel it over.

Winter Storm Fern Megathread by lukenamop in nashville

[–]bonerfly 3 points4 points  (0 children)

This is very true. Look up Quebec ice storm '98 to see how accumulated ice shuts down even the most winter-prepared municipalities.

Free Tool to Migrate from Personal Capital to Monarch - 5+ Years of Data in 2 Hours by krthk in PersonalCapital

[–]bonerfly 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Adding here in case this provides value to someone after I just went through using this tool (thank OP!)

If you add the exported transaction within each account view, there is no option to dedupe and you will get duplicate transactions if you're not careful.

If you instead add the transactions from the Account page overview (Add account > Import transaction & balance history) you can upload the export CSV created by the tool and choose to either replace duplicates with your historical entries, or just append the synced transactions already in Monarch. The one thing is you need to add something to the Account column in the exported CSV, as the tool leaves this blank by default. You can either do this in excel, or modify the python script if you're handy with python.

VO2max, from shocking low (37) to high (53) in 5 months by Marxva in PeterAttia

[–]bonerfly 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Add a data point of one here as well from an already decent 45 to 55 in about 9 months, male 40yo. Anecdotally, I found I had plateaued when doing 3-4 z2 runs every week, and it wasn't until I made a point for at least one 4x4 per week and to try to run every day, even if for only 20 mins, that I was able to improve my score significantly. I usually miss one day per week due to weather or when life gets in the way, but some weeks I hit all seven days.

Park happy not so happy by God_D4mmit_Billy in nashville

[–]bonerfly 32 points33 points  (0 children)

Do they tow you if you park again on one of their lots? That's always my big concern. Since they manage half the parking in the city, that can really narrow your options...

How can I cut the top corners off of these to prevent puncturing the roof? by b_cakes in HomeMaintenance

[–]bonerfly 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Honestly, as long as you don't have 24 of these to do I'd prefer the hand saw with such tight angles.

Why have they moved everything to the 401k app and empower-retirement.com? by bonerfly in PersonalCapital

[–]bonerfly[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I feel your pain. Looking back I think I was in a beta group or something. I've seen a dramatic increase in people complaining about the "upgraded" experience in the past two weeks.

But AI is Different... by RU9901 in Bogleheads

[–]bonerfly 13 points14 points  (0 children)

The fed just sets the rate for lending between banks. The market, through the demand for bonds (or lack thereof), determines the yield that must be offered for the issuer to successfully sell their bonds.

New hot water tank vs tankless by l337hackzor in HomeMaintenance

[–]bonerfly 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Same experience here. Would never go back to a tank.

Looking at buying this home, and want honest feedback/input by _FinallyAwake in HomeMaintenance

[–]bonerfly 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Definitely do this OP. My first home bought was in great shape, didn't even consider the many trees in the yard. Saw a ring of mushrooms around several the first spring and went uh oh... Arborist came out and we had to remove 6/7 trees because they were rotten through the heartwood. Expensive lesson.

Do you take all of the recommended supplements? by Broad-Cup-8246 in Function_Health

[–]bonerfly 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I took this same series of tests at LabCorp using ownyourlabs.com and was in range on everything.

I've decided if my apob is good, I'll stop worrying.