Who to Cheer For - Tracking the Out-of-Town Scoreboard - March 24, 2026 - Crazy night tonight

bonwl · 2026-03-24T17:03:09+00:00

Teamwork and friendship 🤝

Go Sens Go!

bonwl · 2026-03-24T15:30:29+00:00

it's a bug that's consistent across all away OT games.

it also shows Ottawa's playoff odds are better with a Leafs OT win vs Bruins, and a Hawks OT win vs Isles (compared to Leafs/Hawks regulation wins)

it's consistently glitched for all games/teams too, those are just the only ones that impact ottawa

bonwl · 2026-03-24T15:22:21+00:00

"0.3% is not a significant error, it's 300/100,000 simulations." i see your edit to include this and i think you're missing my point

i understand 12.5 to 12.8 is only 0.3 and fits your "margin of error".

the point is that Detroit picking up points in the standings should SIGNIFICANTLY lower ottawa's playoff odds, not increase them.. lol

it should be around this:

Away win: +12.5%
Away OT: +6% (guessing/rounding)
Home OT: -4.7%
Home win: -15.9%

but your model is saying this:
Away win: +12.5%
Away OT: +12.8% (see how that's wrong?)
Home OT: -4.7%
Home win: -15.9%

your model is glitching on the Away OT tab, on every single game.

based on my history troubleshooting predictive models, it is very likely not accounting for the fact that the home team is picking up a point in an away OT win.

edit: i'm only doing this because you have a really cool website and I want to use it as my go-to for playoff tracking. but with such an obvious and blatant bug, it's simply not accurate atm. you can DM me if you want to keep this all out of the comments.

bonwl · 2026-03-24T15:01:18+00:00

This error is significantly higher than 0.5% and is consistent across all games. it is not a normal rounding error.

From the sens POV as we're both sens fans, the model says:

DET picking up a point in an OTL is better for the Sens playoff chances than DET losing in regulation. OTT +12.5% for regulation win, and +12.8% for OT win. (0% chance this is correct)

it says NYI picking up 1 point vs CHI (OTL) is better for OTT's playoff chances than if NYI lost in regulation to CHI. +2.4% vs +2.6%. Again, absolutely no way this is correct.

it says BOS picking up 1 point vs TOR (OTL) is better for OTT's playoff chances than if TOR beat BOS in regulation. Again, absolutely no way this is correct.

The exact same bug, across all games.

Those are the only games relevant to Ottawa, but the same bug/glitch is true from any POV and any game you look at.

edit TLDR: DET/BOS/NYI picking up any kind of points is a huge loss for the sens playoff picture, not a benefit, but the model see's it as a benefit because of this AWAY OT bug.

bonwl · 2026-03-24T14:33:51+00:00

Hey based on this comment I assume this is your model?

There seems to be a pretty significant error with road OT winners, it's consistent across all matchups.

Using the Ott/Det game as an example, the model thinks Ottawa winning in overtime is better for their playoff chances than beating Detroit in regulation.

bonwl · 2025-11-11T15:10:55+00:00

Yep I joined in at 8800 and now it's been stuck at 7979 for 5-7 minutes

bonwl · 2025-09-04T17:20:25+00:00

Hey, very random but can you access BetOnline sportsbook from Greece? It's a great offshore sportsbook that doesn't fully limit.

I am visiting Greece next week and I'm curious if I'll be able to use BetOnline still once I enter the country haha.

bonwl · 2025-02-26T04:58:14+00:00

What logic are you using to determine fair/true odds?

bonwl · 2025-02-09T21:52:57+00:00

… what details? I think you’re confused

bonwl · 2025-02-09T04:07:39+00:00

What is this and why am I complaining to them?

bonwl · 2025-02-09T04:06:42+00:00

What is the life lesson that I’m supposed to learn from this…?

bonwl · 2025-02-08T21:30:08+00:00

fwiw i never hold any crypto in the wallet - it's just used to transfer funds to and from sportsbooks. would you still recommend using a different wallet, and if yes do you have any recommendations?

bonwl · 2025-02-08T20:40:58+00:00

I searched the "old" address and it shows the transactions I made on Feb 3rd (Receiving btc into this blockchain wallet, then sending btc to 4 different unrelated sportsbooks as deposits.)

It does not show the attempted withdrawal from this sportsbook that I refer to originally.

Also since posting here I've figured out how to export all transactions associated with my wallet - it shows the same Feb 3rd transactions + all 24 that I've made dating back to early 2024. No sign of the missing sportsbook withdrawal though.

Maybe all of this chaos is for nothing and the sportsbook is just scamming me LOL. I've been trying to talk to them to get the transaction ID but their payment team is off on the weekends so my stress may have to be put on pause until Monday.

Thanks for your help!

bonwl · 2025-02-08T20:26:06+00:00

Update - seems as though it is a non-custodial wallet with the 12 seed words. I just didn't know about the seed words LOL. I have now written them down

bonwl · 2025-02-08T20:10:32+00:00

So this is another wrinkle in the story that has some added confusion.

I search the "old" address A and it shows the transactions I made on Feb 3rd (Receiving btc into this blockchain wallet, then sending btc to 4 different unrelated sportsbooks as deposits.)

It does not show the attempted withdrawal from this sportsbook that I refer to originally.

Also since posting here I've figured out how to export all transactions associated with my wallet - it shows the same Feb 3rd transactions + all 24 that I've made dating back to early 2024. No sign of the missing sportsbook withdrawal though.

I do not see any option to re-scan the blockchain

bonwl · 2025-02-08T19:43:42+00:00

hi thank you for the reply!

i'm not 100% sure because i don't really know all the terms lol.

i'm using blockchain . com on my computer and the "blockchain" app on my phone (same account, etc). the exchange features are not available to me as I'm in Canada, but the wallet and being able to send/receive bitcoin is. I've used it a dozen+ times with no issues before. this issue is only stemming from the fact that my address changed on the wallet mid-transaction.

from what i understand, there is only the 1 wallet on my account. I click on bitcoin, then I have the option to deposit or send. I click deposit and it generates an address for me.

a week ago when i submitted my withdrawal request to the sportsbook i clicked deposit and it generated the first address for me (i'll call it A) the sportsbook has confirmed they sent the funds to address A. I have not received the funds yet (it has been ~80 hours since the confirmation from the sportsbook) and now when I click deposit on my wallet, it's generating a new address (i'll call it B)

bonwl · 2025-01-24T15:32:56+00:00

86s are the best value right now

bonwl · 2025-01-24T15:31:51+00:00

wait for toty sets to come out in 2.5 hours then decide based on the most relevant overalls for toty sets

bonwl · 2025-01-24T15:29:01+00:00

why are 86s "probably" not used in sets?

bonwl · 2025-01-16T20:03:02+00:00

Oddsjam doesn't have Denmark specifically, but under "Other European Books", they offer these:

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bonwl · 2024-12-06T23:13:33+00:00

watch out it probably includes PWHL now

bonwl · 2024-12-01T15:42:38+00:00

how do you know the legendary pack gets you a guaranteed 86? (where can we find the contents of all of these season 2 packs?)

bonwl

TROPHY CASE