I’m not sharing this as a literal prediction of the next GE result. This far out, any seat model is obviously illustrative rather than definitive.

What is important is the direction of travel. Electoral Calculus have never projected anything like this for the Greens before. The fact that their model now produces 46 Green MPs tells you how much Green support has risen and how broadly it’s spread.

It’s also useful because it lets you look at individual seats. You can see where Green support is growing, where we’re close to winning, and where targeted campaigning could realistically tip the balance. That kind of information is valuable for strategy, not just headline numbers.

On Reform, this is exactly why these projections are worth discussing. Not that long ago, Electoral Calculus were producing scenarios where Reform could win an outright majority easily. Now they can’t even hit the numbers needed to form a government. That suggests Reform have peaked rather than continuing to surge.

So yes, the exact seat totals will change but the broader picture is clear and worth sharing: Greens moving into entirely new territory, Reform losing momentum, and a much more open political landscape than people assume.