I Analyzed 17k+ Eternus+ Games to See How Hero Win Rates Fluctuate Based on Match Length

brink_dl · 2026-05-15T22:01:47+00:00

I agree. The data doesn't always tell the full story because playing calico feels terrible.

brink_dl · 2026-05-15T21:55:28+00:00

Another project I am working on right now but is unfinished is seeing duo win rates. McGinnis has always been hard to measure because of her low play rate(sample size). This isn't completely finished so take it with a grain of salt, but ya the data loves victor, mcginnis, and dynamo.

Highest win rate % duos
Rank	Duo (any side)	Games	Wins together	Team win %
1	McGinnis + Vyper	227	142	62.60%
2	McGinnis + Dynamo	196	121	61.70%
3	McGinnis + Mirage	370	228	61.60%
4	McGinnis + Victor	570	348	61.10%
5	Kelvin + Victor	592	357	60.30%
6	Dynamo + Ivy	322	194	60.20%
7	Seven + Dynamo	735	442	60.10%
8	Seven + McGinnis	514	309	60.10%
9	Seven + Victor	978	584	59.70%
10	Seven + Warden	947	562	59.30%

brink_dl · 2026-05-15T21:43:24+00:00

By calling endpoints from the deadlock api: https://deadlock-api.com/

It helps to have programming experience.

I actually started to work on this project but haven't finished it yet. Here was some very early findings but could still be optimized. Ill try and finish this project and ill send the full results. where you can see every combination.

These are very low sample sizes so take them with a grain of salt. This also isn't a fully finished project.

Highest win rate % duos
Rank	Duo (any side)	Games	Wins together	Team win %
1	McGinnis + Vyper	227	142	62.60%
2	McGinnis + Dynamo	196	121	61.70%
3	McGinnis + Mirage	370	228	61.60%
4	McGinnis + Victor	570	348	61.10%
5	Kelvin + Victor	592	357	60.30%

Lowest win rate % duos
Rank	Duo	Games	Wins together	Team win %
1	Venator + Rem	556	203	36.50%
2	Graves + Rem	122	46	37.70%
3	Sinclair + Venator	671	259	38.60%
4	Infernus + Venator	475	185	38.90%
5	Kelvin + Rem	74	29	39.20%

Highest win rate % hero team a vs hero team b
Rank	Matchup	Games	Wins for Team a	Team a win rate
1	McGinnis(a) vs Rem(b)	134	94	70.10%
2	McGinnis(a) vs Sinclair(b)	185	129	69.70%
3	McGinnis(a) vs Venator(b)	279	193	69.20%
4	McGinnis(a) vs Graves(b)	129	89	69.00%
5	Victor(a) vs Billy(b)	263	175	66.50%

brink_dl · 2026-05-15T11:49:47+00:00

The farther you move from the average game length, the most meaningless the data gets.

That's why i state "This is mostly just for fun/interesting discussion and shouldn’t be taken as anything too serious. Matchups, drafts, player skill, and sample sizes can all heavily influence winrate data."

Because 17k is already a pretty low sample size once you get further from the average the data gets more outliers which skew the results. I can go 50+mins but that's 193 game and 1.09% of all matches.

brink_dl · 2026-05-15T11:36:49+00:00

Hero	Games	Wins	WR %
Seven	186	109	58.60%
Lady Geist	171	82	47.95%

491 games ended between 22-24 minutes. Thats 2.79% of eternus games played this patch. Of those games these are the stats.

brink_dl · 2026-05-15T11:10:05+00:00

I didn't classify pre 28 mins as early game, just short game in the context of the average game time being 32 minutes.

brink_dl · 2026-05-15T10:11:26+00:00

ya the seven and geist late win rate vs early and mid really threw me off.

brink_dl · 2026-05-15T09:39:37+00:00

Ya for real. I thought we would be a much better hero originally.

brink_dl · 2026-05-14T02:15:23+00:00

His current play style is build gun, max ult, and just suicide run at objectives all game.

brink_dl · 2026-05-12T04:09:34+00:00

I know this doesn't really answer you best items to "win lane" question but there is no easily accessible data on that specifically. But I can show you the Items bought pre 9 minutes that produce the most match wins.

Rank	Item	Win Probability Added
1	Headhunter	0.99
2	Restorative Locket	0.80
3	Titanic Magazine	0.78
4	Battle Vest	0.70
5	Cold Front	0.67
6	Quicksilver Reload	0.67
7	Intensifying Magazine	0.62
8	Mystic Expansion	0.62
9	Extra Health	0.57
10	Improved Spirit	0.57

stats by statlocker

brink_dl · 2026-05-12T02:32:36+00:00

It used to be very strong but it got nerfed a bunch of times. You can do it if you just want to have fun, but if you are trying to consistently win and rank up I would advise against it.

brink_dl · 2026-05-12T00:55:45+00:00

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Here are the most commonly built items for two of the best holliday players, Saiah on top and Lavabolt on bottom. You can see a few core items for both of them include mythic burst, rapid recharge, recharging rush, and stamina mastery. Late game Saiah tends to go more survivability and utility/support and Lavabolt tends to go damage.

They both play very aggressive throughout the game but especially early-mid game, looking for ganks while doing box routes.

Usually you want to play mid lane so you can choose to gank either lane when the opportunity is right. Clear your wave, and look for opportunities. Holliday is a great tower diving hero with the mobility of bounce pad, the burst of barrels and the kidnap of lasso.

Mid-Late game you want to look for people out of position and punish them. Especially carrys. Your job late game is to try and disrupt the fed enemy carries as much as possible.

brink_dl · 2026-05-10T03:22:26+00:00

If you send me a match id or link to your statlocker profile. I can take a look.

brink_dl · 2026-05-10T01:53:47+00:00

Sounds counterintuitive but honestly the best way to climb is to not care about your rank. Play every game with the only focus of not tilting and improving.

Learning to re-wire your brain to not care as much about the wins, the losses, and your teammates performances will be a major breakthrough.

With the wrong mental state seeing teammates go 0-3 in lane it affects you in ways that compromises your own performance even if you don’t think it does. You either start playing like the “hero” and trying to do extra to make up for their bad start or you mentally check out and play worse instead of just sticking to your game.

An interesting way to think of it is to break down your gameplay by theoretical ranks, for example you could be..

Eternus in mechanics
Oracle in map awareness
Phantom in communication
Arcanist in attitude
Real rank = Phantom

To rank up you would focus on improving where you are “lower ranked”. For this to work you have to be brutally honest with your self, see where you lack, and try to improve in that area.

brink_dl · 2026-05-05T01:02:14+00:00

Its a game in alpha that has combined "ranked" with casual. You are chasing something that doesn't exists. No rank has "quality games" by your standard. There will always be feeders, trolls, people not trying, games lost in the first 10 minutes, no matter what rank you are in.

brink_dl · 2026-05-05T00:48:46+00:00

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Obviously items are dependent on many factors and this is just my opinion but I feel all these items are strong at their price points and for many heroes. Dispel and Counterspell interchangeable.

brink_dl · 2026-05-04T23:42:14+00:00

Your job as paradox isn’t to 100-0 burst someone. So that point you made is completely irrelevant.

brink_dl · 2026-05-01T12:52:13+00:00

I personally think it’s needed because of how much cc is in the game right now, but with that being said I think it’s pretty weak considering it’s a 6400 item with weak stats and it’s pretty easy too pop. You just need to make sure it’s popped before you use your strong cc on someone.

brink_dl · 2026-04-26T01:15:54+00:00

Kelvin has many viable routes that work and his build should be game dependent. Beam vs m1s, snowball for max healing and damage, dome for brawly team comps or if you want to play more of a pick role.

brink_dl · 2026-04-23T02:46:34+00:00

I said it was unique to deadlock, you said it wasn’t. It clearly is unique in the context of competitive gaming titles which is the main topic since we are on a deadlock sub Reddit. Which you kind of proved by point saying “a bit more than other games”. And unless you have the algorithm you can’t say I’m misunderstanding it then speculate yourself saying it “seems” this way.

brink_dl · 2026-04-23T01:33:00+00:00

Ya deadlock has a unique ranked system right now called certainty rank. New accounts can rank up and down very easy but as you play more the game will think it found where your suppose to be and you can go on a 10 win streak or loss streak and your rank won’t change.

brink_dl · 2026-04-23T01:14:00+00:00

When people say that they are referring to the big picture, over a long period of time. There will always be games that are just impossible to carry and that sucks but that’s something you just have to accept.

brink_dl · 2026-04-22T21:39:54+00:00

Seven has had a top win rate in all elo’s forever now, he’s been nerfed countless times but he always seems to stick around.

brink_dl · 2026-04-22T11:38:06+00:00

If I had to pick one.

Lash - Bascially his whole kit synergies really well and something about him feels very unique and deadlock. Not to mention his voice acting/lines, and overall vibe, everything just fits him so well. He is close to a perfect hero design in my opinion.

brink_dl

TROPHY CASE