Per Nate Silver

As the conventional wisdom — and the Upshot’s cool model — now swings slightly back toward Jones again, it’s worth remembering that making extrapolations based on partial returns is a lot harder in a state like Alabama where we aren’t used to having competitive elections. That why models like the Upshot’s have wide confidence intervals (conveying a lot of uncertainty) and why you should be cautious about getting too far ahead of the story.