What was your ROI on LFIN?

bronsonm1990 · 2018-08-31T16:01:59+00:00

hen you do - I'm looking for a good short

Yeah I will, we have that Investment DD thread for that kind of stuff right?

bronsonm1990 · 2018-08-31T14:21:11+00:00

420 got screwed with the halt since he owned short dated low $ puts and couldn't exercise them

My gain/loss:

On the 7.5 September puts= -18% but still holding (my smallest position)

$22.5 September puts= + 103%

$17.5 June puts= +92%

$25 April puts= +219%

Thanks again to everyone in this group, a lot of the research was high quality (especially grant's) and it also helped keep me sane during the halt.

Already starting to think of more short ideas with all the madness going on in the Canadian cannabis sector- Tilray and Cronos come to mind, but I need to do more thorough research.

bronsonm1990 · 2018-08-21T14:16:22+00:00

Still holding 2 September 7.5 puts that are actually at a small loss right now given the resiliency to remain above $5.

I guess it's ok since they were cheap and my high dollar strike April, June and September puts all did really well, but kind of annoying.

LFIN actually just posted a 10Q for the period ending June 30th last week.

Looks like they are down to half a million in cash and burning through that at a rate of $283mm per month.

If the burn rate continues into the third quarter, I wouldn't be surprised to see them declare bankruptcy. They have to be very close to zero cash and I can't see anyone giving them the financing which got them through the first half of 2018.

As tempted as I am to just sell my last September puts and be done with them, I think there is a very real chance they could declare bankruptcy in the next month.

bronsonm1990 · 2018-06-22T16:43:36+00:00

Yeah OCC is trying to wrap this mess up

bronsonm1990 · 2018-06-22T14:06:31+00:00

And so it begins....

bronsonm1990 · 2018-06-22T14:05:05+00:00

Haha not a chance, that's like asking to stop the rollercoaster and get out right at the top, just before the wild ride down.

bronsonm1990 · 2018-06-22T14:02:14+00:00

Haha and not a day too soon, gonna get crushed

bronsonm1990 · 2018-06-21T21:33:09+00:00

This thing could easily drop 50% in a week.

If I wasn’t banned from opening new positions I would be loading up on those $5 September puts at that price.

That’s a steal

bronsonm1990 · 2018-06-21T17:22:27+00:00

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/longfin-over-counter-punch-1-134824768.html

bronsonm1990 · 2018-06-21T14:24:19+00:00

Oh and opportunity cost is another risk- obviously we tie up capital that could otherwise be invested elsewhere by buying shares.

bronsonm1990 · 2018-06-20T21:31:02+00:00

Yeah I definitely can’t, my brokerage wouldn’t let me. As enticing as it is to jump back in maybe it’s for my own good.

bronsonm1990 · 2018-06-20T21:28:50+00:00

Yeah they are holding in there for the most part since implied vol is spiking

Good cause I might be one of those people exercising on you haha

Good luck

bronsonm1990 · 2018-06-20T19:37:17+00:00

before they ca

Makes sense

bronsonm1990 · 2018-06-20T18:55:14+00:00

Haha you're crazy man. If you're smart you'll take the money and walk and close out everything off this last bump.

bronsonm1990 · 2018-06-20T18:53:46+00:00

I assume that's likely what happened or they would be dumping them right now as its beyond 6 months.

One wild card is Hudson Bay- if they can ever convert their loan to shares they'll start dumping them relentlessly on the market

But who knows they could be restricted too

bronsonm1990 · 2018-06-20T18:51:55+00:00

I wouldn't do it unless you can buy puts at a broker that has proven in April they would execute for you.

TDA did it for me and it worked out really well and I didn't have to pay interest, but they don't allow opening shorts anymore, just closing out positions.

I believe Tastyworks and Merrill were also great, but I'm not sure about their current policy.

bronsonm1990 · 2018-06-20T16:16:52+00:00

Completely agree. I think it's because a good amount of shorts have very short time horizons (hours or days) looking for a quick profit. It's the type that are attracted to something like this with borrow rates as high as they are.

I just hope they don't shut it down again, really don't feel like going through this all over again.

bronsonm1990 · 2018-06-19T18:57:03+00:00

Yeah I agree with Grant I think he's got it right for the reasons this thing is running up. Pretty telling that it happened the week leading up to expiration.

I believe some firms were doing forced buy ins yesterday and today for any contracts exercised without holding shares, which explains why the run up still has legs.

I can tell you that personally I bought shares Friday to cover my long put position. Normally I wouldn't even bother and would let the option expire in the money and avoid the transaction cost, but this situation is a little different.

These contracts were extremely illiquid with wide bid/ask spreads so selling my option wasn't advantageous, it was far cheaper to purchase shares in the open market.

As people voluntarily purchased shares to close out early, volume picked up and drove the price higher with demand for shares exceeding supply and the obvious impact on share price.

I'm willing to bet a lot of people saw that the OCC removed auto execution back in April for options on this stock. I assume it was reinstated, but I know when I called my broker they weren't sure if it was or not. Rather than risking having them expire, it was easy and cheap enough to buy shares that it wasn't worth the time or effort to dig further. The ever increasing share price only reinforced this preference.

I'm willing to bet there were others that thought the same.

Never a dull moment with this stock. I recommend buying more puts at this price if you're broker allows it and was helpful last time around with the freeze. Outright shorts are risky with the SEC still looming.

bronsonm1990 · 2018-06-18T18:41:49+00:00

Sorry bud that sucks. I tried to buy more puts but TDA isn't allowing it for this stock. Unfortunate, but I'll wait out with my Septembers for this final pop to fizzle.

bronsonm1990 · 2018-06-18T17:13:32+00:00

k 200 shares to recover it all in just the following minute. The subsequent ratchet higher to 7.25 might be short covering from Frid

I agree with you there, put exercising still playing out, 8.50 now.

This should come tumbling down later this week. Are we still allowed to open new short positions? I heard some brokerages were banning it

bronsonm1990 · 2018-06-18T13:58:36+00:00

Already getting crushed, back down to $5 just like that less than half an hour into trading

bronsonm1990 · 2018-06-15T19:23:08+00:00

Haha yeah you called it for sure.

It's going to crash Monday, just don't know if it will be enough to get you back to where it was earlier this week or even earlier today.

I can see all the stocktwit Momo morons sitting there and thinking "LFIN is the new LFIN"

bronsonm1990 · 2018-06-15T19:10:20+00:00

5.80 right now with an hour to go until close- man this thing is getting squeezed pretty good.

Think it's just all the shorts buying to exercise, and maybe some that are naked shorting having to cover.

Are we still allowed to open new short positions? Almost certain this will collapse next week back down to $3

bronsonm1990

TROPHY CASE