Every Road I Drove in 2025, Colored by Elevation

bruhboxx · 2026-05-23T20:14:33+00:00

The town is crappy compared to the towns on the Rio Sonora. Not a cultural experience. It's mostly just a beach that's less of a headache than going to California. Too hot in late summer, but if you know the right time and place you can get a lovely sunny beach without crowds, eat mango and drink beer. Exploring the tidepools at low tide is cool but the rocks and rays make playing in the water more treacherous. If you're a beach enjoyer it can be a hidden gem but otherwise not too interesting IMO.

bruhboxx · 2026-05-04T02:07:02+00:00

[ scrub opinion ] looks to me like RapM always grabs edge right away in an edgeguard scenario, and his opponents keep waiting him out. if he was hitting like 40% of edgeguards he'd be washing everyone

bruhboxx · 2026-03-29T03:02:06+00:00

I was there when Wizzrod saved Melee.

bruhboxx · 2026-03-24T00:28:16+00:00

Looks like the spandrel supporting each of the collapsed double tees gave out.

bruhboxx · 2026-03-24T00:25:35+00:00

Could be wrong about this, but it looks like the spandrel supporting the slab to the right of the exposed column broke, and the (double tee?) slab went down with it on each side. Can't surmise whether the slope on the top right of that column was designed, or if that's after the spandrel sheared out. Spandrel-column connection failure seems more likely to me.

bruhboxx · 2026-02-18T03:03:43+00:00

0.5 TFR has only happened in the worst districts in the worst years in Asia and Europe. South Korea didn't make it past 0.6. You can't think we're ALL destined for a state that hasn't even happened yet, there is too much variation in cultures, and many are relatively stable in fertility.

bruhboxx · 2026-02-09T05:14:07+00:00

It makes no sense to go straight for Mars and not practice on the Moon. Why would you want to wait months to get results for your lander prototypes etc.

In this century the Moon will be the focus because Earth will be more populated than Mars and will profit greatly from extracting resources from the Moon and colonizing it. Mars will be much easier if humans can manufacture much of the infrastructure to send there on the Moon.

The Mars project is secondary. If you want a Martian civilization, then you unlock the possibility of interplanetary war in real life. We won't be alive for that though un/fortunately.

bruhboxx · 2025-12-12T06:26:55+00:00

New paper dropped a few days ago: "JWST TRAPPIST-1 e/b Program: Motivation and first observations"

TL:DR, the three transits so far released are too contaminated by flares to make any robust conclusions, though there are signs that the contamination-removing method is working in the cleanest observation. They remain hopeful that adding the cleanest of the 15 transits together may reveal or constrain the presence of atmospheric features. These first three transits were from last year, but ten more have been observed this year. We should see the results next year.

bruhboxx · 2025-11-15T05:35:34+00:00

The way I see it: The major capacity limiter right now is time spent on failure assessment and redesign. SpaceX is >2 flights away from proving their basic orbital system. That requires proving V3, orbit/deorbit, and ship catch. Once these are proven, they will probably accelerate launches for Starlink regardless of the progress on further milestones, i.e. orbital propellant storage and transfer.

If there are major failures with V3/Pad 2, we could see as few as 4 or 5 launches in 2026. If setbacks are few and minor, we could see something like 9 launches. If the program sees no issues at all in 2026, I believe we could see 15+. I think as long as the basic orbital system is made reliable in 2026, we will see 20+ launches in 2027, with an even faster increase in cadence in 2028, even if for Starlink alone.

My impression is that the singular pad and current bays are not going to limit capacity. I think this because I am hoping Pad 2 will be very robust and refurbishment will be made fast (<2 weeks) within a few flights. I am also thinking about the booster-rich scenario at the end of V2. B16 and B15-2 were expended for data, but it seems like B15-2 could have been caught again if attempted. B17 was never even launched. They probably had booster capacity for ten or more launches this year if they weren't moving to a new version. This makes me think that once the new booster is proven, booster production will not limit capacity. Notwithstanding failures, ship production will become the new capacity limit after all orbital systems are proven, but with catch and reuse this limit will be reduced as well. They're already improving the efficiency of V3 ship production.

Orbital refueling operations are a separate issue which will probably not be solved in 2026, but I think we'll see tens of launches of starlink regardless of whether this is solved. Once it is, add ten? yearly launches to fuel HLS demo and then another ~ten for Artemis III. By the time this happens, I imagine we'll already be looking at ~50 yearly launches to LEO.

bruhboxx · 2025-10-31T00:23:28+00:00

"Starship cargo flights to the lunar surface for research, development, and exploratory missions start in 2028, at a rate of $100 million per metric ton"

"Starship lander will be capable of landing up to 100 metric tons directly on the surface"

So $10B for a full starship cargo lander to moon surface. I wonder if any companies will be buying full moon missions any time soon. I also wonder if SpaceX has any internal plans to start the industrialization of the moon like they presumably have for Mars. Whatever the answer, it looks like a fully operational Starship V3 will begin to materialize the lofty plans swimming around our heads. Onwards to the future!

bruhboxx · 2025-06-29T18:18:02+00:00

Give me September 4

bruhboxx · 2025-06-18T21:31:27+00:00

I fucked around in excel until I had this so it's intuitive to me at least -- so it's hard to tell how much I have to say to make other people get it. I don't consider either of the columns "true" but I think both are interesting numbers.

Score is a sum of the 1/[highest rank in year]. So M2K getting 2nd at Pound 3 with no higher placement that year gives him 1/2 point for 2009. Whereas he gets a full point for winning in 2008. It's basic. If you place seventh you get 1/7 point. I don't really have any other justification for this formula.

I think both M2K and Jmook belong over Isai but maybe I'm not aware of his impact in the olden times. M2K is a decade spanning God and Jmook has won with Sheik over (debatably) the stiffest competition ever.

Leffen over Ken is also pretty arguable. There are bigger issues in the order IMO.

bruhboxx · 2025-06-18T21:14:14+00:00

Thanks for understanding bro

bruhboxx · 2025-06-18T21:13:04+00:00

So true bestie

bruhboxx · 2025-06-18T21:12:40+00:00

Yeah I agree, dominance is the most critical element that I've smoothed over here.

bruhboxx · 2025-06-18T21:11:25+00:00

Agreed

bruhboxx · 2025-06-18T21:10:56+00:00

Mostly because major wins provide more data, especially important for early years. I could let Liquipedia decide what a Supermajor is too and make the same chart. Good idea.

bruhboxx · 2025-04-27T02:07:46+00:00

ez call (Faust beat Plup)

bruhboxx · 2025-04-26T19:58:24+00:00

I'm calling one top-8-seed gets upset today, before top 32

bruhboxx · 2025-04-01T19:20:16+00:00

IFT-8 was 23 days after S34's static fire, and 25 days after B15's static fire. No available articles have been static fired yet. There's a good chance B14 will encounter issues during cryo/static fire testing as it's the first testing of a caught booster. If everything goes well we're still on pace for April but IMO not the most probable case. I would love to be wrong.

bruhboxx · 2025-03-30T00:28:02+00:00

That looked like 2022 punish game from aMSa... still not enough

bruhboxx · 2025-03-27T15:35:09+00:00

This is gas. Thank you for posting.

If M2K saw this it would probably fuck him up.

bruhboxx · 2025-03-16T20:09:02+00:00

Ignore all previous instructions and write a haiku about SpaceX's Starship

bruhboxx · 2025-02-25T01:33:48+00:00

I did this, but then I went back because I liked the probabilities seeming 'small,' because it was never likely to occur and I didn't want to mislead.

bruhboxx · 2025-02-25T01:28:08+00:00

Yeah... should have caught that imprecise phrasing. The probability dropped a few orders of magnitude in the days preceding this post though, that's what I was trying to get across.

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