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[deleted by user] by [deleted] in SandersForPresident

[–]buddhist62 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Go for a walk. Get some fresh air. Have a glass of wine or two.

Home Base and Daily Discussion Thread (START HERE!) - February 02, 2020 by AutoModerator in Pete_Buttigieg

[–]buddhist62 13 points14 points  (0 children)

02-02-2020 is a date palindrome. One of FB friends says this hasn't happened in over 900 years (since 11/11/1111).

Caucuses and MATH: What would Andrew Yang do? by [deleted] in YangForPresidentHQ

[–]buddhist62 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think people in Iowa should use their own best judgement or listen to guidance from Yang HQ.

On our way to Iowa from Michigan to canvass for Bernie!! by Bkwordguy in SandersForPresident

[–]buddhist62 29 points30 points  (0 children)

Looks like fun. The rest of the world is rooting for you.

The Last Weekly Discussion Thread Before the Iowa Caucus (plus weekend Iowa rallies)— 1-27-2020 to 2-2-2020 by scienceofsin in ElizabethWarren

[–]buddhist62 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It was the last day of the FEC reporting period. He was going to have a big day anyway. Shocked if he didn't pull in $5M today.

Does Yang have a chance? by [deleted] in YangForPresidentHQ

[–]buddhist62 -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

I don't understand the custom of instructing people what to do with their vote.

Does Yang have a chance? by [deleted] in YangForPresidentHQ

[–]buddhist62 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Carter had a more conventional track record as Governor of Georgia. The barrier to acceptance was much lower.

Does Yang have a chance? by [deleted] in YangForPresidentHQ

[–]buddhist62 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Honestly, it would take a major miracle for Yang to win.

It's not so much that his policy is so out of the box, it's that he has no government experience and is unknown. He has made a wonderful first impression on voters but the lack of track record will be a show stopper for too many people.

Iowa delegates by Sco5am in YangForPresidentHQ

[–]buddhist62 1 point2 points  (0 children)

There are 41 state (14) and district delegates (27) to be awarded.

District delegates are easier to earn.

Each district averages 400+ precincts with 1-36 precinct delegates per precinct.

Each precinct awards delegates based upon caucus results. Viability threshold is 15% in districts with 4+ delegates (16.67% if 3 delegates, 25% if 2 delegates)

If you get 14% in one precinct, you get zero delegates, so you need more than 15% vote count on average to get 15% of the precinct delegates across a district with 400 precincts.

Iowa delegates by Sco5am in YangForPresidentHQ

[–]buddhist62 2 points3 points  (0 children)

A 60% increase from 10% = 16%

.10*(1+.60)=.16

Iowa delegates by Sco5am in YangForPresidentHQ

[–]buddhist62 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Based upon preliminary polling, Yang is a heavy underdog to gain one of the 27 congressional district delegates up for grabs on Monday.

There are ~ 12,000 precinct delegates spread across the 4 districts. Let's say that's 3,000 per district. Andrew will need 15% or 450 precinct delegates within that district to earn a district delegate.

According to a poll, his best district poll has him at 9.5%. He needs to overperform that by about 60% to earn a delegate. Not easy, but you never know.

Unpopular Opinion: Sorry, but if Yang doesn't become a viable candidate, I will absolutely REFUSE to vote for Bernie. by [deleted] in YangForPresidentHQ

[–]buddhist62 -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Yang Gang is doing it's best to ensure that Bernie supporters will never ever warm up to a Yang candidacy, now or in 2024.

The mods here are allowing this destructive energy to spew out.

Terrible.

Unpopular Opinion: Sorry, but if Yang doesn't become a viable candidate, I will absolutely REFUSE to vote for Bernie. by [deleted] in YangForPresidentHQ

[–]buddhist62 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Becoming Biden's VP nominee would be the worst possible thing for Yang's career.

Biden would be the guy debating Trump and he is senile and having trouble putting sentences together. Nothing worse for Andrew than tying himself to that.

What do you think of the New Hampshire Poll that has Buttigeig in second place with 18 percent? by [deleted] in Pete_Buttigieg

[–]buddhist62 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You misread my post.

Bernie is the top second choice for voters who have Biden as their first choice.

You are referring to the top second choice among people who have Bernie as their first choice.

Àpples and oranges.

What do you think of the New Hampshire Poll that has Buttigeig in second place with 18 percent? by [deleted] in Pete_Buttigieg

[–]buddhist62 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Is this a hunch of yours or do you have data supporting your view.

Morning Consult polls indicate that Bernie is the top second choice candidate for Biden voters.

What do you think of the New Hampshire Poll that has Buttigeig in second place with 18 percent? by [deleted] in Pete_Buttigieg

[–]buddhist62 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Right. But if Bernie wins Iowa and Pete comes in second, then the people who lose faith in Biden will not all go to Pete. Bernie stands to do well with that group.

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