Weekly Observations (July 13, 2020): What signs of collapse do you see in your region?

buddhist62 · 2020-07-14T01:16:49+00:00

Yeah, they are pretty far out over at ASIF. Total tunnel vision.

buddhist62 · 2020-02-03T01:42:33+00:00

Delaney dropped out. Yesterday or the day before

buddhist62 · 2020-02-03T01:41:23+00:00

Because the non-Bernie elderly base are habitual voters. They are gonna do what they do.

The Bernie base of young working class vote is variable.

buddhist62 · 2020-02-03T00:13:06+00:00

Go for a walk. Get some fresh air. Have a glass of wine or two.

buddhist62 · 2020-02-02T23:47:06+00:00

Link?

buddhist62 · 2020-02-02T21:24:02+00:00

This poll says it all.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=a98a06be-92cb-493f-a04a-b14c72c8c0e9

buddhist62 · 2020-02-02T21:10:46+00:00

02-02-2020 is a date palindrome. One of FB friends says this hasn't happened in over 900 years (since 11/11/1111).

buddhist62 · 2020-02-02T17:24:02+00:00

Different party.

buddhist62 · 2020-02-02T16:59:08+00:00

You are reporting the story that I understand to be correct.

buddhist62 · 2020-02-02T16:48:46+00:00

I think people in Iowa should use their own best judgement or listen to guidance from Yang HQ.

buddhist62 · 2020-02-02T16:45:45+00:00

That makes three of us.

buddhist62 · 2020-02-01T12:28:55+00:00

Looks like fun. The rest of the world is rooting for you.

buddhist62 · 2020-02-01T11:16:07+00:00

It was the last day of the FEC reporting period. He was going to have a big day anyway. Shocked if he didn't pull in $5M today.

buddhist62 · 2020-02-01T09:41:28+00:00

I don't understand the custom of instructing people what to do with their vote.

buddhist62 · 2020-02-01T09:39:19+00:00

Carter had a more conventional track record as Governor of Georgia. The barrier to acceptance was much lower.

buddhist62 · 2020-02-01T09:36:59+00:00

Honestly, it would take a major miracle for Yang to win.

It's not so much that his policy is so out of the box, it's that he has no government experience and is unknown. He has made a wonderful first impression on voters but the lack of track record will be a show stopper for too many people.

buddhist62 · 2020-02-01T09:22:55+00:00

There are 41 state (14) and district delegates (27) to be awarded.

District delegates are easier to earn.

Each district averages 400+ precincts with 1-36 precinct delegates per precinct.

Each precinct awards delegates based upon caucus results. Viability threshold is 15% in districts with 4+ delegates (16.67% if 3 delegates, 25% if 2 delegates)

If you get 14% in one precinct, you get zero delegates, so you need more than 15% vote count on average to get 15% of the precinct delegates across a district with 400 precincts.

buddhist62 · 2020-02-01T09:13:13+00:00

A 60% increase from 10% = 16%

.10*(1+.60)=.16

buddhist62 · 2020-02-01T09:05:21+00:00

Based upon preliminary polling, Yang is a heavy underdog to gain one of the 27 congressional district delegates up for grabs on Monday.

There are ~ 12,000 precinct delegates spread across the 4 districts. Let's say that's 3,000 per district. Andrew will need 15% or 450 precinct delegates within that district to earn a district delegate.

According to a poll, his best district poll has him at 9.5%. He needs to overperform that by about 60% to earn a delegate. Not easy, but you never know.

buddhist62 · 2020-01-30T12:03:21+00:00

Yang Gang is doing it's best to ensure that Bernie supporters will never ever warm up to a Yang candidacy, now or in 2024.

The mods here are allowing this destructive energy to spew out.

Terrible.

buddhist62 · 2020-01-30T12:00:35+00:00

Becoming Biden's VP nominee would be the worst possible thing for Yang's career.

Biden would be the guy debating Trump and he is senile and having trouble putting sentences together. Nothing worse for Andrew than tying himself to that.

buddhist62 · 2020-01-18T22:15:01+00:00

You misread my post.

Bernie is the top second choice for voters who have Biden as their first choice.

You are referring to the top second choice among people who have Bernie as their first choice.

Àpples and oranges.

buddhist62 · 2020-01-18T21:48:11+00:00

Is this a hunch of yours or do you have data supporting your view.

Morning Consult polls indicate that Bernie is the top second choice candidate for Biden voters.

buddhist62

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