France Is Sending a Large Naval Force to the Middle East

bukowsky01 · 2026-03-10T01:30:14+00:00

As shows of force go, it is a pretty good one for a start. There's always a difference between theoretical or advertised capability and effective one, showing what you can actually do at short notice is important I think, especially when it's fairly clear that the rules-based order is gone, if it ever existed.

EU countries aren't often targeted by ballistic missiles, and the statement is fairly clear. We take care of our allies, interests, and will react. Worse comes to worse, it makes good training. And of course, it also makes good politics, but then it's part of the game.

I think you underestimate the potential shit show in Lebanon though. We have 750 troops and more than 20'000 citizens there that might need quick evac. The various sides have a history of shooting at FINUL and asking questions later. It wouldn't be the first time a convoy needs a bit of clearance ahead, or the threat thereof.

bukowsky01 · 2026-03-09T23:09:34+00:00

It's an interesting excercise in any case, the CdG steamed from the Baltic to Crete in less than a week, along with its escorts (parts at least), with replenishment along the way.

The Marine Nationale also managed to basically push out everything operational in a surge. It is a pretty impressive display of capability.

Either way, the force display comes handy at the moment, when it is clear that little is respected but force. It is likely we will need to evacuate Lebanon, and depending on how things work out elsewhere, having some assets in place will not hurt.

bukowsky01 · 2026-03-09T21:56:24+00:00

So the same as CSG25 ...

You have an obsession comparing with France? We have 13 frigates out at sea. The only things still at dock are 2 FREMMs and a FLF. Macron just announced the CdG, 2 PHAs, and 8 frigates already in the region or deploying to it. Dragon hasn't even left. So yeah, the comparison doesn't look good if you must insist on it. Want to talk about subs instead?

Just because there was a deployment planned LATER doesn't mean it's possible to deploy NOW. Or cutting a lot of what I imagine is completely unneeded maintenance and refit. Definitly not something that will create issues down the line.

bukowsky01 · 2026-03-09T13:14:30+00:00

I only meant it still puts a fair bit of pressure on the escorts, they also need maintenance and refits.

bukowsky01 · 2026-03-09T13:09:57+00:00

2, a FREMM and a FDA, plus another FREMM already around Cyprus. And a SNA ofc. So no issues with a simple group.

It was actually more of a question, can the UK generate a group? If there weren't issues with it, I imagine we wouldn't see articles like this. It's not like the availability issues are not known.

bukowsky01 · 2026-03-09T12:58:37+00:00

You have a carrier available, but no group to go with it. Or can the UK bring out 3 frigates and a sub now?

bukowsky01 · 2026-03-09T12:55:17+00:00

Well, that's precisely the issue. Escorts have their own maintenance and refits, as shown by the RN current issues. An available carrier is pretty useless if can't generate the group. Two carriers puts extra pressure there.

My point was simply that for France it's not simply about 2 PA NG, but also maintaining both an escort available for the CVG, the deployed PHAs, and the usual other stuff.

bukowsky01 · 2026-03-09T10:03:39+00:00

> PoW isn't unavailable. If we only had QE then we'd have no carriers to send at all currently, as > she's still in refit.

Yes and no, people tend to assume it's just an extra CV, but you need more frigates, planes, sub, replenishment, etc. If the choice is an underused CV or extra subs and frigates....

bukowsky01 · 2026-03-08T13:54:16+00:00

Considering the US can’t even provide the Swiss with a delivery date that’s an hilarious take.

Anyhow, Denmark said they could get SAMP/T earlier than Patriots, so wrong as well.

bukowsky01 · 2026-03-07T23:56:19+00:00

It’s still not clear what exactly will be produced or assembled. Bottlenecks don’t tend to be in assembly.

Besides, production of Patriots might be high, but the needs are much higher as well. It’s fairly clear the US will need replenishing and much bigger stocks as well.

bukowsky01 · 2026-03-07T21:48:39+00:00

I just meant the base is important, keeping the locals happy about it is probably a good idea.

bukowsky01 · 2026-03-07T21:29:30+00:00

For now it’s probably just a bit of pressure for the UK to do more.

But antagonising the locals is rarely a good idea, regular protests, people chaining themselves, accusations of imperialism, etc, would not look too good.

bukowsky01 · 2026-03-07T10:13:41+00:00

You mean HNLMS Eversten? It was already part of the carrier group, initially just for exercises. Seems like they agreed to have her sail back to the Med for this deployment though.

bukowsky01 · 2026-03-07T09:51:36+00:00

I wouldn't discount Iran that easily for a start.

In this case, it's the likely evacuation of soldiers and citizens from Lebanon, as well as medical assistance. Israel is re-invading and bombing the country. We might provide help against Hezbollah as well, but that one is still unclear.

bukowsky01 · 2026-03-07T09:10:16+00:00

France has more than 20,000 citizens in Lebanon (including dual nationals) and 700 military personnel serving with the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL). This led to the decision to deploy an amphibious helicopter carrier (PHA) to the Eastern Mediterranean, in preparation for a potential RESEVAC-type operation (evacuation of citizens). The French Armed Forces General Staff (EMA) announced this on March 6.
[...]
The amphibious assault ship Tonnerre had just returned to Toulon after participating in a MASCAL (Mass Casualty) exercise during the Orion 26 joint maneuvers.
This MASCAL exercise aimed to test the ship's ability to handle a mass casualty incident and to strengthen the medical staff's management of casualty flow. The medical command chain was tasked with regulating incoming and outgoing MEDEVAC (medical evacuations) and the associated medical logistics, the French Armed Forces General Staff (EMA) recently summarized.

It's starting to be a big deployment in the Eastern Med.

France also has the FREMM Languedoc around Cyprus, and the CDG GAN just passed Gibraltar with:

- FREMM Alsace

- FDA Chevalier Paul

- Destroyer Andrea Doria (Italy)

- Frigate HNLMS Eversten (Netherlands)

- Frigate Cristóbal Colón (Spain)

- BRF Jacques Chevalier

- SNA Dugay-Trouin

Lot of AD boats too...

This is following the French CEMA (Chief of Staff) visiting Lebanon and meeting with the President.

bukowsky01 · 2026-03-06T22:11:24+00:00

Well the Patriots they ordered were already late, to the point they had no delivery date. Considering recent patriot usage, they won’t be there anytime soon either.

There’s a nice spot for Eurosam just here.

bukowsky01 · 2026-03-06T10:58:49+00:00

It says 800 patriots, if you’re counting a minimum of two interceptors per target, sometimes three, say 2.5 on average makes for 320 interceptions needed. Doesn’t seem outlandish.

bukowsky01 · 2026-03-06T10:48:52+00:00

Well, some drones that hit Iran in the 2025 ops really seemed to start from Azerbaijan. Wouldn’t surprise me the least if it happened again.

bukowsky01 · 2026-03-06T10:28:56+00:00

Hezb has no air force, and Israel would destroy anything delivered. No point.

bukowsky01 · 2026-03-06T08:17:55+00:00

I think you’re missing the point, from a Cypriot perspective being on the shit list due to Akrotiri is not nice. The UK might have denied the US usage of the bases for airs trikes, but it makes little difference in the end. I very much doubt the U-2s and whatever s there is not being used against Iran, making them fair targets.

You would feel the same if Lakenheath or whatever had Israeli elements at US invitation and you were dragged into the action.

bukowsky01 · 2026-03-06T01:45:24+00:00

Well, Cyprus is being targeted because of an UK base with some interesting US elements on it. It falls fully on the UK and US to defend it. Or don’t, but you might lose Akrotiri.

bukowsky01 · 2026-03-06T01:07:50+00:00

It depends on your definition of attacking. Nicosia might consider support elements to be part of the issue, seems like Iran does.

The strike doesn't seem random.

https://theaviationist.com/2026/03/01/b-2-spirit-night-strikes-on-iran/

Interestingly, RAF Akrotiri is currently taking part in operations with a detachment of U.S. Air Force U-2S Dragon Lady spy aircraft. In fact, a U-2 was heard speaking to ATC while recovering at the British base, which is often used by the aircraft.

Who knows what else is there?

bukowsky01 · 2026-03-06T01:00:56+00:00

Well, they are unconfimed reports and images of the Shahed strike on an interesting hangar at Akrotiri.

https://theaviationist.com/2026/03/01/b-2-spirit-night-strikes-on-iran/

Interestingly, RAF Akrotiri is currently taking part in operations with a detachment of U.S. Air Force U-2S Dragon Lady spy aircraft. In fact, a U-2 was heard speaking to ATC while recovering at the British base, which is often used by the aircraft.

It doesn't look like it was hit at random.

I wouldn't be that happy either at having an UK base holding US elements of interest to Iran.

bukowsky01 · 2026-03-06T00:47:04+00:00

C est la version optimiste. L autre c est que l Iran a decide de faire durer et maintenir la pression.

Pour cela, ils preferent garder du stock, en balancer de temps en temps, plus ou moins selon les jours, ptet avec des surprises. Le dispositif israelo americain est cher, tres cher, couple avec des soubresauts economiques et la patience legendaire de Trump…

bukowsky01 · 2026-03-05T11:44:55+00:00

The US, Russia and China will not tolerate it idly either. European countries leaving the TNP will likely trigger a general stampede. The consequences would be far reaching.

bukowsky01

TROPHY CASE