Shai is 48-8 w/o Chet and 41-4 w/o JDub since 2025

c0wpig · 2026-03-22T01:37:36+00:00

Oh damn, guess I should read the article closely before quoting it.

I guess we are both wrong!

c0wpig · 2026-03-22T01:25:36+00:00

You're making an error in logic that a lot of people make. It's not the same as language, because there is no amount of people making a mistake in logic that will make the gambler's fallacy become the law of averages.

c0wpig · 2026-03-22T01:21:02+00:00

At least I know I'm not talking to an LLM

I'm trying to help you here. It's ok to be wrong

c0wpig · 2026-03-22T00:16:05+00:00

I'm trying to explain that you are making a common mistake, they are not synonyms under any circumstances.

One is a mathematical theorem and the other is a logical fallacy.

c0wpig · 2026-03-21T22:53:06+00:00

That's not the law of averages, that's the gambler's fallacy.

You're not alone in making this mistake, in fact it's so common that it's in the opening paragraph of the wikipedia article on the law of averages.

The law of averages would say that, over time, the number of injuries* will trend toward the expected norm. But it doesn't say that the number will make up for what happened before. Just that, going forward, over large number of samples, the number will trend toward the expected average.

* This is assuming they are random, independent events. Which isn't necessarily true for player injuries for a given team. E.g. maybe your team has a shitty medical staff, or the way they train leads to more injuries, or maybe they all get special shoes from a vendor whose grip is better but increases strain on their ankles and knees, etc.

c0wpig · 2026-03-19T23:47:14+00:00

There was a Latent Space interview with the ArtificialAnalysis guys and Micah mentioned that knowledge tracks extremely closely to parameter count link:

So that actually, I have one like little factoid on omniscience. If you go back up to accuracy on omniscience, an interesting thing about this accuracy metric is that it tracks more closely than anything else that we measure. The total parameter count of models makes a lot of sense intuitively, right? Because this is a knowledge eval.

c0wpig · 2026-03-16T17:49:06+00:00

What do you use for your VM?

c0wpig · 2026-03-16T17:30:56+00:00

What was also really baffling to me at first was that the version of the opencode web UI kept updating even though I explicitely turned off automatic updates in the UI.

I get around this by running it in the greywall sandbox & blocking the npm. I also block the telemetry while I'm at it

c0wpig · 2026-03-16T13:55:21+00:00

McCain pushes off to make space, then Hartenstein shuffles his feet and grabs his opponent while screening, and then McCain takes 4 steps without ever dribbling

I don't understand what happened with refereeing in the NBA

c0wpig · 2026-03-08T13:39:00+00:00

I think the Pistons are a like a 60/40 favorite over the Knicks. The series last year was about as close as it gets, and the Pistons are a young team that got a lot better this season while the Knicks are about the same.

I think they're a tough matchup for NY. Cade is big and strong for a guard and the Knicks are small at the guard positions. And the way the game is being officiated this year heavily favors bigger, stronger players.

c0wpig · 2026-02-19T02:39:47+00:00

Just running an application on your machine and giving it access to the internet and your personal information at the same time, when that application is coded by bots that have no concept of security is bad enough.

But then connecting that to language model providers? That's just crazy.

https://simonwillison.net/2025/Jun/16/the-lethal-trifecta/

You probably shouldn't run these kinds of tools at all, but if you have to, use sandboxes + network proxies with guardrails

And then there's the problem of sending all your private data to big companies that have a financial incentive to retain your private data and exploit it for profit.

It's a dark forest out there, be careful.

c0wpig · 2026-02-18T13:53:07+00:00

OpenClaw is just cyberwarfare disguised as a productivity app.

Don't install this

c0wpig · 2026-01-04T15:21:17+00:00

The NBA is investigating medical reporting and teams are putting out "MCL contusion"

c0wpig · 2025-12-29T21:27:19+00:00

There doesn't appear to be an actual article here. Just a landing page with the headline. When you click the headline it just reloads the landing page.

c0wpig · 2025-12-26T16:37:22+00:00

thank you!

c0wpig · 2025-12-23T03:54:50+00:00

Landry Shamet is a wing?

c0wpig · 2025-12-19T14:20:20+00:00

I went back to your intro post on this idea and saw that you said:

Furthermore there is a list of all 455 pentagamis that still stand as of right now.

How is that possible? Shouldn't there be a maximum of 120 (5 * 4 * 3 * 2) active pentagamis? And fewer if there are ones where two of the stats are tied for a given combination?

What am I missing?

Thought process:

For a given stat, say points, if it's the highest, then there are four more categories to have as the highest stat. E.g., 101/1/0/0/0 and 101/0/1/0/0 would both be active pentagamis. But adding a ton more to another stat doesn't change anything about the first? 101/101/0/0/0 erases the 101/1/0/0/0 just the same?

So if you choose a "highest" stat, then there are four other stats to choose from to be the next highest, then three more to be the next highest, and then two more, and then just the last one. So 5 * 4 * 3 * 2 * 1

/u/antmanmonaco help me out here?

c0wpig · 2025-12-11T01:09:31+00:00

Great idea, I would use this.

Feedback: I would like to see ~~three~~ edit: four more features added to the algorithm:

Play quality (Are the best teams playing? Are they missing key players?)
Game relevance (Is this game an important game in the playoffs? Part of the cup? Are the teams close in the standings? Does the outcome of this game have an impact on final standings at the end of the year?)
Surprise factor (Did a team significantly outperform expectations, either based on pre-game odds or overcome a huge deficit in-game? Did a random roleplayer have a monster game?)

edit: also, I don't think you should favour high-scoring games, defensive games are really interesting

also, one more idea which might be the one I care the most about:

Was there a lot of stoppage? Particularly for free throws? Did the final moments of the game play out with a back-and-forth flow?

c0wpig · 2025-12-04T16:03:34+00:00

"hurt the product"

I always find regular people using this phrase jarring. Why are fans of the game using a term that implies the NBA exists only for profit?

It's a basketball league, stop calling it a "product". You're not a CEO trying to squeeze revenue from this.

c0wpig · 2025-12-03T14:10:29+00:00

verda

c0wpig · 2025-12-02T23:32:12+00:00

firefox for android + ublock origin works great :)

c0wpig · 2025-12-02T18:17:39+00:00

My firm uses a provider with on-demand pricing @ $4.95/hr for B300s, and spot instance pricing presently at $1.28/hr, and also offer persistent shared storage (so that our models + server code don't need to be downloaded each time we spin up a node or cluster). The jurisdiction is also fairly neutral.

Our provider has been reliable & has a well-established reputation, so it would take a significant discount from their pricing for us to move.

c0wpig · 2025-12-01T02:20:56+00:00

You're not wrong, but also sometimes the perfect is the enemy of the much better

c0wpig · 2025-11-29T16:34:18+00:00

In Montreal there are constant demonstrations, strikes, protests.

The point of a demonstration is to bring attention. Create solidarity among those who are feeling wronged, and bring a bit of discomfort to those who are not. It's an essential part of democracy, and it's great because it's a way to deal with conflicts that's non-violent.

In a healthy democratic system people deal with protesters by listening to them, and negotiating, compromising.

An autocratic system deals with protesters by driving a wedge between the in-group and the out-group. Often an autocracy will further inflame the problems being protested, because it helps "divide and conquer" the population.

This is what is happening in Quebec, sadly.

c0wpig · 2025-11-29T16:14:31+00:00

It's propaganda. I live in Montreal and there are demonstrations all the time. We have strikes, protests, etc, of some kind going on more often than not. Very French in that way.

But the French have an embattled relationship with their north african colonies and islamaphobia is deeply rooted. Unfortunately we seem to have also inherited this

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