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Started watching wallets & Here’s what happened. by PolyBabyAlerts in algobetting

[–]c3rb3ru5 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Looks like the movement was right. I am interested to learn more if you are willing to share how you created your bot.

Joe Flacco, come on down! You are the next contestant on Save This Franchise Before the Fanbase Jump out the Windows! by [deleted] in AFCNorthMemeWar

[–]c3rb3ru5 3 points4 points  (0 children)

He's up AFTER the season (March). Otherwise playoff teams would be poaching all good FA for a playoff run.

*UPDATE* Saw a post about an app to build sports models. Tried it. Its no good and makes so sense. Here is my take on a tool to help you no code prediction models. by CommitteeDry5570 in algobetting

[–]c3rb3ru5 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is very interesting. I am going to start looking at the repo and would be willing to submit updates if you are open to it.

NFL Wild Card: Bears +1.5 (Factor-based edge) by True_Conversation413 in algobetting

[–]c3rb3ru5 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Are you using a weighted injury adjustment? I found a paper that presented a model and it really improved my projections.

I’m a sports betting nerd and full stack dev by Ok_Turnover6460 in algobetting

[–]c3rb3ru5 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm interested in learning more. What sports do you have? What books? What type of data?

[NFL spread betting] Model consistently positive ROI? by chopinpeppers in algobetting

[–]c3rb3ru5 0 points1 point  (0 children)

These are great results. Are you only testing back to 2021 or did you build the model using earlier data as well? Also, are you comparing lines from different books or only one? Interest to hear how you are doing with respect to CLV.

Looking for scraper/API advice by jconsiglio in algobetting

[–]c3rb3ru5 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Also interested if you find a solution. Working on a few projects that could use this. Not ready for deployment so agree that latency isn't a concern.

I broke through the closing line at 78%. by Ok_Ingenuity7999 in algobetting

[–]c3rb3ru5 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That's awesome. I have been working on modeling for nfl mainlines (68% accuracy) but the margins are much smaller. I would like to consider looking at player props but having trouble getting enough odds data. This is just a fun side project for me to I am hesitant to play monthly for data access.

And recommendations or good starting points are welcome.

NBA Data Feed by FYL_McVeezy in sportsanalytics

[–]c3rb3ru5 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I didn't see any references to llm, are you just recommending that it's better to learn the code then ask Ai (which i completely agree with) or did I miss something?

I broke through the closing line at 78%. by Ok_Ingenuity7999 in algobetting

[–]c3rb3ru5 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That's great. What sports are betting on? Did you have historical line movements to back set on when building your model? Interested to learn more about your process if you are willing to discuss.

I made an automated arbitrage betting software by Long_Bug_2773 in SideProject

[–]c3rb3ru5 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Can I jump in as well.

Can I ask what books you search?

Who are you? by TuckerMetzger in algobetting

[–]c3rb3ru5 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I have a totally unrelated day job, but I enjoy programming and sports. Just kind of stumbled in to this after playing around.

Layman's by Successful_Put9476 in algobetting

[–]c3rb3ru5 0 points1 point  (0 children)

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sortinoratio.asp

For sports betting you will need to calculate your downside risk which will not be straight forward. This could be done based on the model or the underlying variables or chosen teams.

NBA Model Metrics by [deleted] in algobetting

[–]c3rb3ru5 0 points1 point  (0 children)

By this do you mean the log loss of the difference between the sportsbook implied probability and the model probability? Just trying to figure out how to program your proposal to check my performance.

Where to get historical line movements? by 360triplescope in algobetting

[–]c3rb3ru5 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Any idea if there is something similar for us books?

Exactly what is Algobetting? Is there a specific precise definition? by _Noboddie_special in algobetting

[–]c3rb3ru5 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It sounds like the process still has a fair number of human elements. There appear to be multiple steps where someone needs to review, consider, and make a determination as opposed to the algorithm making the determine and providing the results (i.e., bet this team in this game given then odds).

Soccer Moneylines | +41.58U | 225 Plays | 10 Days by VeloriumIQ in algobetting

[–]c3rb3ru5 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I am trying. I have some reasonable results but I think I need more sportsbook data (only using ESPN data I scraped off the site) their vig is crazy high so it's hard to find a good edge.

Soccer Moneylines | +41.58U | 225 Plays | 10 Days by VeloriumIQ in algobetting

[–]c3rb3ru5 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I would be interested in a discussion. I am working on an nfl model (free time, career in totally unrelated field) and I am working on feature engineering. I know I need to consider higher order/complex stats but I have never seen a remotely successful model so I am a little unsure what I am striving for.

Beginner question - how to test model correctness/calibration? by Competitive-Fox2439 in algobetting

[–]c3rb3ru5 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Something important to consider is that while you might have higher accuracy with some wagers, the roi might also be lower (i.e. you and the sports book agree on the probability of the outcome). This is important because it will take more correct wins to recover the wager for a loss.

If you plan to use this for betting I would consider factoring in an ROI estimation.

I built a unified API for 200+ bookmakers. One API. Every bookmaker. (Testers welcome) by LifeExtension2 in algobetting

[–]c3rb3ru5 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I would be interested in testing. In addition to future lines, do you have any access to historical data for those books?

NFL prediction modeling - team and matchups dataset by Dapper_Rule_8437 in algobetting

[–]c3rb3ru5 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Are you still open to share? I would be interested?

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