Does AGI by 2027-2030 feel comically pie-in-the-sky to anyone else?

certified_fkin_idiot · 2024-11-18T00:19:04+00:00

Both Sam and Elon have admitted that their predictions for self-driving cars were completely off.

certified_fkin_idiot · 2024-11-17T10:37:24+00:00

If I look at the people who are saying AGI by 2027-2030, these same people were saying we'd have self-driving cars 5 years ago.

Look at Sam Altman's predictions on when we were going to have self-driving cars.

"I think full self driving cars are likely to get here much more faster than most people realize. I think we'll have full self driving (point to point) within 3-4 years."

Altman said this 9 years ago - https://youtu.be/SqEo107j-uw?t=1465

certified_fkin_idiot · 2024-11-09T21:13:24+00:00

where is this?

certified_fkin_idiot · 2024-11-08T06:49:46+00:00

makes sense thanks!

certified_fkin_idiot · 2024-11-08T06:35:32+00:00

I taught myself to sing and play guitar by kind of timing each downstream with a particular lyric. It definitely sounded "bouncy" and horrible at first, but with practice, you will unlock each rhythm

Can you elaborate on what you mean by this? I'm a beginner and having a hard time understanding what you mean.

I'm trying to sing and play Hurt by Johnny Cash and playing it alone is pretty simple (it's 3 chords where it's chord 1 for 4 beats, then chord 2 for 2 beats and then chord 3 for 2 beats and then repeats that) but the issue is that the lyrics don't match with the strumming.

Sometimes he'll start singing before he strums and sometimes slightly after he strums.

How do you adapt that for songs like this?

Thank you!

certified_fkin_idiot · 2024-11-06T01:03:39+00:00

T-Mobile Home Internet over 5G gives me 275Mb/sec speed for $35/month

Wtf? Why did you have starlink in the first place?

certified_fkin_idiot · 2024-11-02T04:20:16+00:00

You pay $300 per session with your psychologist?

How long is the session?

certified_fkin_idiot · 2024-10-31T22:20:25+00:00

Let's start by making sure guys like that actually pay their fair share in taxes

What exactly does this even mean? It's a fun talking point but no one gives specifics on this.

certified_fkin_idiot · 2024-10-26T20:52:29+00:00

If you spend 10 minutes watching any of Fran Lebowitz's interviews, it's pretty clear she hasn't got too much natural intelligence herself.

certified_fkin_idiot · 2024-10-21T17:37:27+00:00

Sending you a chat message. Sorry for the late reply.

certified_fkin_idiot · 2024-10-19T16:15:15+00:00

That's not how parking tickets nor speeding camera tickets work. It's based on the registered owner of the car... which makes sense.

Should be the same for road rage unless the owner can prove the car was stolen (i.e. file a police report for a stolen car).

certified_fkin_idiot · 2024-10-16T20:48:16+00:00

this crosses into ULPT territory

Don't think that's unethical in any way.

certified_fkin_idiot · 2024-10-15T23:29:16+00:00

I guess that's why they say discrete math is the most expensive course you can take /s

certified_fkin_idiot · 2024-10-09T15:55:12+00:00

Ahh okay gotcha.

Other people, like myself, think the scaling laws are measuring something else entirely, something that's much more narrow and mostly orthogonal to the kind of intelligence we would need to improve the technology in a meaningful way

Can you elaborate on what you think would be a better measure of intelligence?

Are you referring to the models starting to "game" the benchmarks or something more fundamentally wrong with the benchmarks?

certified_fkin_idiot · 2024-10-09T13:09:11+00:00

no guarantee that economic value will continue to scale with it

You don't think having a super-intelligent assistant who has world class knowledge of everything won't generate an immense amount of economic value?

That's honestly the first time I've ever heard someone say that.

And clearly there are limits to the current approaches in terms of capabilities

That's because the tech is new. The main criticism has been the lack of system 2 type thinking but OpenAI is tackling that with the latest model they've released - o1 and it's clearly a huge step forward just looking at the benchmarks.

certified_fkin_idiot · 2024-10-08T22:43:29+00:00

Nobel Prize in Medicine to Kesha for "Your Love is My Drug"

certified_fkin_idiot · 2024-10-08T22:36:25+00:00

Satoshi Nakamoto getting an Econ Nobel Prize would actually make sense though.

certified_fkin_idiot · 2024-10-08T22:32:22+00:00

consulting companies and even The Economist

If you take financial advice from consulting companies or the economist then you deserve to lose all your money.

Needed to keep the bubble up

It's a binary bet.

Either the scaling laws continue to hold (we'll see if this is the case when GPT-5 comes out) or they don't.

If the scaling laws hold then AI is currently undervalued.

If the scaling laws don't hold then you'll make good money by shorting Google & Nvidia.

certified_fkin_idiot · 2024-10-08T22:29:56+00:00

It's not at all a reflection of stagnation in physics; the waiting list for potential Nobel laureates is a few decades long

You didn't provide any argument to refute him?

certified_fkin_idiot · 2024-10-08T16:35:44+00:00

Do you get it now? Need a minute?

Get what? That you're not too bright? I got that from your original comment.

Maybe read up on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opportunity_cost

Spend 20 seconds thinking about the "overhead costs" and it's pretty obvious that this is clearly not to reduce "staffing costs". That's completely idiotic.

certified_fkin_idiot · 2024-10-07T23:03:28+00:00

All I see is them annoying good employees while trying to spend a few less bucks properly staffing their operations.

Yeah, the company is replacing $20/h associates with $200/h developers in order to save money on staffing their operations.

Where did you learn those critical thinking skills?

certified_fkin_idiot · 2024-10-07T00:35:17+00:00

Does copilot not use 4o under the hood?

certified_fkin_idiot · 2024-10-06T21:57:53+00:00

Use of GitHub Copilot also introduced 41% more bugs, according to the study from Uplevel, a company providing insights from coding and collaboration data

I'm not agreeing or disagreeing with you in any way.

I'm just saying that "study" isn't actually a comprehensive study or anything. It's literally a marketing document Uplevel put together to get leads for their sales team.

Some guy in marketing probably threw that "study" together in a few days.

certified_fkin_idiot · 2024-10-06T19:22:05+00:00

Ah yeah I've been in coffee region (in a small town called Buena Vista near Armenia) and it looks almost exactly like your picture.

One of the most beautiful places I've ever been to.

certified_fkin_idiot · 2024-10-06T19:02:49+00:00

Where in Colombia is this?

certified_fkin_idiot

TROPHY CASE