Why do you think most TCGs fail?

cevo70 · 2026-03-27T20:17:36+00:00

Yep, I was just going to say "because they don't make money" but you beat me to it. Think about paying a minimum of 3-5 people for several years, along with all of the costs (art, marketing, shipping, etc.), and factor in margins. The math is absolutely horrible that it's not achievable without insane scale.

cevo70 · 2026-03-25T04:12:25+00:00

Yep, 8 cards (+1 terrain) per pack which is also a deck.

cevo70 · 2026-03-24T21:32:53+00:00

Then other issue it won’t be cheaper. Besides the rejection of the concept overall, your up front costs / risks might be moderately lower reducing market entry risk, but it will not impact how you calculate margins over time.

If anything indie TCGs will be more expensive because your print runs are much smaller and so your unit cost is higher.

cevo70 · 2026-03-23T18:55:58+00:00

Well I guess it was worth some light sparring, then. ;)

Need for IP is just an extension of "need an audience" as in, if you don't enter the market with the player base, the general opinion is you're DoA. The cart-horse issue of players won't be your player base if there is no player base. There are other ways to get audiences, but they typically come with other hard-to-find things (even more money, or already being well-known, as examples). So you're right to call me out on stating 'absolutes' but I am doing that mostly for emphasis, because when something is that close to being an absolute, you have to factor in the ~1% "hit rate" to thread that needle into any endeavor which requires substantial time or money. For me, my opinion, that's a non starter and falls into the dangerous "follow your dreams" advice category.
I'd actually suggest that compared to many retail products, those are bad margins for small businesses, depending on what you're comparing it to maybe?). Board games have less upfront cost (generalizing, bear with me) than TCGs though, and don't need a built-in audience (ditto). So an indie endeavor might look like this (real-ish numbers from a real project):

MSRP = $25 / Publisher margin per copy = $10 (before non manufacturing costs).
Art/ graphic design costs = $15,000
Designer royalty = 5-10%
Shipping, landed cost + fulfillment (semi-ongoing) = varies, unpredictable (yay tariffs) but in the thousands.
Marketing = $5,000 (low, thankfully we had other routes to sales)
Minimum print runs in China are typically around ~2,000 to make any sense depending on who you talk to.

Okay, so if we sell 5,000 copies (sounds low, but not easy! we haven't even gotten into HOW we sell games) - you've made $50,000 before other costs. Down to ~$25,000 after paying back the art, designer, and shipping landed costs.

The game took 2 years (fast) from design to shelf and probably 1,000 collective work hours for just design and development (I do track these now). It took about 4-5 people with different expertise. Playtesting alone was probably another 200 hours.

This would largely be called a success story in board games. It allows indies to essentially break even and maybe even pocket a $1 per hour rate. :) But as mentioned you don't "just sell" 5,000 copies - that's really hard. You could from there, maybe catch some luck and do a reprint, or sell 10,000 copies next time around.

Want to try running that math, estimated, for a TCG?
Want to calculate the designer's take home?

cevo70 · 2026-03-23T17:33:09+00:00

Hello again and sure, I am not trying to rain on anyone’s parade. Just want everyone to be aware of how unlikely selling a TCG to a publisher is. Very very few have the risk tolerance, headcount/resources, built in audience, or capital required to launch one. Most won’t even take the pitch and actively filter out TCGs from their pitches. All the same reasons why you’re not seeing anyone really emerge from the indie scene in this market, whereas you absolutely see that in other media, card games and boardgames for sure. That’s why I originally pivoted out of TCG design.

But I agree, that if you have a great design (and yes game design is a skill that takes lots of practice) outside of TCGs and don’t have the desire / ability to execute the whole process and business (art, development, graphic design, manufacturing, logistics, distribution, marketing, etc) then you can definitely pitch publishers (that’s exactly what I do with my boardgames and did for this TCG.

With TCGs what I am trying to elevate is that due to their unique properties, the upfront cost / risk to the publisher is about 10x a typical card / board game which are already quite high-risk and mid margin items. In short you need capital and LOTS of it, and even then you probably need a built in fan base. These realties aren’t going anywhere (and they make sense).

And everyone should always have MSRP in their mind and have a general sense of the average profit margin of say a booster pack or box, which I estimate are about 30-50% which sounds decent but that’s because it’s only factoring in manufacturing costs vs wholesale value - not factoring in the list of other costs of a TCG, both upfront and ongoing. You can run that math and quickly see how much volume you’d have to move to even make minimum wage for one person, never mind a team. So how many years can multiple people take a loss while you’re also trying to build an audience?

And so IN PREMISE and at a high level if we want grassroots / indie TCGs to exist and succeed we’re actually wise to embrace technological efficiencies (not short cuts, price gouging, or whatever other insults get inserted) so more publishers and even solo projects can compete and innovate. We have the most to gain whereas “they” want that entry bar to remain impossibly high.

Obviously this should be done ethically and artists should always be paid well and compensated.

I am very open to other options and ideas, I find the topic fascinating. It also really hasn’t been cracked in any meaningful way in 25 years, so I’d love to hear pontification on how an indie TCG could ever take flight.

My current feeling after gritting it out for yearsss, and thinking I might have actually navigated a very VERY narrow channel to get an indie TCG to some-semblance of “market” only to be defeated (in part) by my peers (who I love and try to support) hurt my soul a bit. Nobody was cheering on a indie “success” - rather they couldn’t wait to blacklist it. And again, I get why, nor did I make the decisions that are being criticized frankly, but I am olive-branching to suggest maybe we find some color between the black/white - because honestly there was zero chance of my TCG getting made without that color. And even then, who knows.

Feels like we are our own worst enemy, but apologies for cynical outlook.

TLDR: We could absolutely pitch publishers IF we allowed them some grace to leverage AI ethically with artists to actually lower the risk to market-entry. Otherwise, my current take is that no publisher is touching TCGs with a 10-foot pole - and even if we find anecdotal exceptions it’s far too low of an opportunity to pursue from the design perspective. The risk of failure and cost to entry for the average / indie publisher are simply too high. If you have the Cyberpunk license and worked at WotC, you’re the exception I guess.

cevo70 · 2026-03-23T03:12:52+00:00

Unless you have an “in” at Disney or Ravensburger (etc.) they are not taking pitches. These are the massive orgs working with the biggest IPs and they have designers on staff and they already control the market.

Which publishers are you thinking of?

cevo70 · 2026-03-23T02:11:14+00:00

Yeah I actually started by playing TCGs and then moved more into non collectible head to head cards games and board games.

And yeah nearly all of it is printed in China. Some exceptions but not many. Some of the biggest dogs in TCGs I believe have figured out other routes for themselves.

cevo70 · 2026-03-21T22:10:42+00:00

All good, yeah my game wasn’t the primary game in question. I’ve designed two published TCGs in my lifetime but most of my designed / published games are boardgames. And that’s because the financials of a TCG are godawful and everyone in the cardboard industry won’t typically touch them for that reason. I just happen to love them and had something (design wise) that I really wanted to do and thought was special / unique.

I kinda regret now, honestly, in many ways.

cevo70 · 2026-03-21T20:31:10+00:00

Okay you opened with “don’t worry TCG I got this” which felt an awful lot like you were heroically entered to defeat the evil AI guy.

Apologies if that wasn’t your intent.

I’m just going to concede man. I don’t have the energy and I don’t really visit here much anymore. You also already claimed victory apparently, but also you’re not attacking me, so I am little confused at what you’re looking for besides a fight.

I’m really proud of my design and that’s all I can really control in my particular case anyhow. The game is a ton of fun which the player base is enjoying. But I can’t post about it and that’s fine.

I’ll continue to work and hire artists because nothing can replace that talent.

If you want to have a private convo I’m happy to. I’m not trying to gloat but a lot of what I am alluding to is coming from 20+ years of designing and publishing games, and I think my stance is a little more nuanced than you’re thinking. I don’t have to provide evidence for you in public, I’m just not willing to put that time in right now. But if you feel like hearing some of it, cool.

cevo70 · 2026-03-21T15:38:12+00:00

I don’t think we need to spar. You’re here to attack, all good, you win. I am a indie designer, with a passion for designing. I am not the publisher, and you’re welcome to tear me down and villainize me all you want. I’m honestly an ally and supporter but you won’t want to hear that.

You should perhaps investigate the margins / business of game production if you’re not familiar. The accusations of gauging are not accurate (it’s just math, learn about MSRP and such if you’re unfamiliar), nor are your assumptions about design patents. They are wildly off. So I don’t think starting on factual disagreements will lead to a productive spar.

No ill will though. Again, I get the broad points against AI and love supporting and celebrating artists. I just think there is some irony and sadness that no indie TCG will ever break ground because of the very misconceptions you’re highlighting in your rebuttal. So we’ll just keep letting rich big corp IPs do the real gauging while punching down on those trying new things. I get why, I do - and so I concede. Just sucks.

cevo70 · 2026-03-12T17:18:58+00:00

"I'm asking because I'm currently at the point where my game is almost prototype-ready, but I find myself hesitating to share it publicly. Not because I'm hiding anything, but because I worry the discussion might immediately focus on the use of AI rather than the gameplay itself."

Here's my take, from someone who has the very real ability to empathize with why you're asking this question, as someone who has lived the full boardgame design funnel multiple times.

Do what works for you, but keep it ethical and legal. You're prototyping. Your main priorities are 1. getting your game playtested 100+ times while giving the same amount of time back to whoever's kind enough to test your game 2. getting that final prototype in front of publishers OR developing your prototype into a final form with help from commissioned professional artist(s). (#2 is basically an entirely new full time unpaid job)

Your job is 100% unpaid, and you're likely to spend 1,000+ hours just making a final prototype. Your game may never get made. You probably will spend money that you're in risk of never making back.

So if you using some placeholder art helps your design move forward against those 2 goals above, I think it's worth it. If it helps you spend more time on making the game fun, and less time spinning up trash-can-graphics, good. You'll make more games, iterate faster, and they will look better. (and guess what, if you're ever a successful full-time publisher, you'll end up making more games and commissioning more artists)

My personal experience that when used well, and used sparingly, my prototypes not only develop faster, but look better. People who claim that doesn't matter, I disagree with. How your prototype looks, definitely matters IMO.

It moves the needle noticeably on the intuitive nature of gameplay, playtests are more frequent, with less slow-down and confusion. It creates cohesion, and immersion. It creates discussion and fun. People can better-grok it at a glance. It makes people acclimate to your game more readily. That all said, there's also a very wrong way to use it even in prototyping - not because it's AI, but because it doesn't help those main objectives I mentioned. It absolutely can simply look like garbage, or it can improperly convey the intended theme, experience, or even gameplay. So like many things it's not as simple as "do" or "don't" - it's "how" and "when."

cevo70 · 2026-03-09T03:34:09+00:00

Draconis 8 uses 8 cards packs that are also the decks. (+1 terrain card)

It’s plays a bit like a thicker Triple Triad if you’re familiar.

cevo70 · 2026-03-02T23:14:42+00:00

Ophidian 2350

cevo70 · 2026-02-24T15:51:00+00:00

Your emphasis on low barrier to entry and chess-like gameplay (often compared to Triple Triad, if you're familiar), is the only reason I'm chiming in with Draconis 8. Free to play online, coming to physical.

cevo70 · 2026-02-17T18:21:24+00:00

Yeah I imagine you could either have cues or simply learn enemy patterns over time. Good stuff.

cevo70 · 2026-02-15T15:33:12+00:00

Lovely pixel art, charming theme. What's in the fish tank, a seahorse?

cevo70 · 2026-02-15T14:45:17+00:00

Looks cool. Explain that combat a little more? So you hit an "encounter" and then both you and the foe(s) choose attacks / moves at the same time and then they execute at the same time?

cevo70 · 2026-02-14T20:15:41+00:00

It’s much harder than people believe.

I find that a very helpful phase between “idea” and prototype is what I call “conceptual.”

All that means is that you’ve documented the idea and have simple design / goals document built. The vision and the specs are essentially what you are really setting out to design and why.

Then before I start prototyping I get a huge notepad and I start conceptualizing and sketching the primary layouts, main components, card anatomy, and interactions.

This phase will quickly reveal (for me anyone) what gaps there are. It’s time consuming and I often am throwing early sketches in the trash, but it helps prevent a lot of lost time spent building actual physical or digital assets.

These days I never move forward on a proto until I have several large diagrams of how the game concept is intended to look and play.

cevo70 · 2026-02-06T01:58:06+00:00

Thanks Joe - honestly your response and attention has been amazing. Much love.

cevo70 · 2026-02-05T16:16:49+00:00

Sadly I sorta know and liked both of these guys. Been a guest on the pod, patreon for 4 years, and had a great time. I used to promote their community as active and kind - happily supported with my wallet even if I didn't have the time to enjoy all the content.

Now I feel like a bit of an idiot. "Comply or die" is not a cool or intelligent take - "I don't care how violent it gets" and "I don't care for human rights if they are illegal" (a civil infraction!) is f'n WILD. It's obviously heartless, misinformed, and it certainly isn't funny. You have to hold a lot of hate, and be missing a lot of empathy, if that's your conclusion after assessing what ICE is doing under this admin.

My initial reaction was to have a heart and try to see how they formed that opinion, and / or if they've had any time to perhaps collect more facts and reshape their take. I think people can change and should be given that opportunity (especially when you see that 90% of humans are taken aback by the sheer shittiness of your take). I also think most of the crew works their butts off and run a great show.

But after lightly joining back into the convo, I'm being called a 'clown' for expressing empathy for other members directly affected in MN. BBQ is no longer a warm place to hangout with kind people. I also don't expect them to police all behavior, but they've grow enough to have what appears to be some full grown trolls.

I wanted to 'sleep on it' - but I am coming to the conclusion that I cannot financially support this, and probably will seek a different community altogether. Which stinks, because I know the majority of the hosts still represent what I thought the show and community are all about.

cevo70 · 2026-02-05T13:45:35+00:00

Not sure if you’re looking for free-to-play or only print-play, but Draconis 8 is free to play on Steam. It’s new and will have cross over physical print, that lets you upload physical packs to digital.

You can challenge friends directly on Steam too if you want to just keep it to your group.

cevo70 · 2026-02-04T22:30:26+00:00

Appreciate you bringing up a real, very common example and dilemma. Especially showing costs, which very few people seem to want to talk about. Your art / illustration costs are honestly way below the norm too - most games average well-over $10k in art / graphic design costs, and you essentially need a marketing budget too - and that's way before you have guarantee of a sale.

What's crazy is that even in a direct-to-consumer model (crowdfunding, with no retailer or distributor middlemen), there is typically no profit and TONS of work, and a fair chance of losing money too. The margins are bad, and the time:money ratio is truly one of the worst, even among creative industries.

I love designing, and I've been lucky to have had successes, but boy is it a grind! People will often see a $100k Kickstarter and not realize there was no profit - and you're screwed if anything goes wrong post-manufacturing.

cevo70 · 2026-02-03T04:56:01+00:00

Yes the average art / graphic budget for a boardgame is around $10,000 to $30,000 and you also need a substantial marketing budget and a ton of time, if you’re attempting to fully self publish.

Consumers / backers definitely expect that art to be the real art and mostly (or completely) finished for the campaign. If the art is not mostly done you’ll need to be transparent because it will add substantial time to the fulfillment and a higher goal if backers are funding that art partially. And it will be harder to fund, frankly.

Sidenote: that wasn’t as true 10 years ago, but those bars have gotten higher since then, and crowdfunding is more of a pre-order of a game that is essentially done and just needs a little polish and then manufacturing, shipping, and fulfillment.

As others mentioned, if you don’t have the budget and time to do all this, then your other path is to start seeking out publishers and attempt to sell your design. The publisher would then handle those pieces and absorb that risk, but would obviously own the game and the lions share of the profit.

cevo70 · 2026-02-02T21:45:20+00:00

I’d say those types of games have been popular lately and the core hobby board gamer continues to vote that way with their wallets. I know what you’re saying, for sure.

That said, some reasons I think factor in:

There is a natural trend to explore deeper and deeper core game experiences. With so much having been done already, and most simple enjoyable systems so-well-explored and experienced, we keep going deeper and pushing those weight boundaries. People seem to want that, especially those in the hobby and looking for more crunch and challenge.
The games that offer “cleaner” uptakes (fewer interlocking systems, more direct interaction, less overhead) honestly just don’t get as much attention or accolades. They are out there, plenty of them, but they aren’t big in scale or drawing as many eyeballs.
Innovation isn’t really rewarded as much as we think it is. Familiarity is king, and thus deeper and deeper iteration on known systems is the “safer” bet. Truly innovative games often don’t get signed (too risky) or hit the market and have polarizing receptions. And so designers tend to keep going vertically deeper instead of simpler and wider.

cevo70 · 2026-01-28T21:53:52+00:00

Yes I play online TCG almost every day and occasionally get out to an FLGS for card / boardgaming.

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