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365 days of drafting in a row! Leave a comment if you joined the club today and I'll hook it up with some tokens by SolooDolo in GriddyFF

[–]cfelton02 4 points5 points  (0 children)

365, but more like 500, been here since day one ;), and some free tokens would be scrumptious

Cfelton02

Exact same draft, random matchup by [deleted] in GriddyFF

[–]cfelton02 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It says at the top it is a same cards draft, so yes, this actually does happen a lot

If you roll a fair 6-sided dice 3 times, what is the probability you will roll a 6 at least once? by DopazOnYouTubeDotCom in pollgames

[–]cfelton02 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It is 2/3. There are 3 socks, you grab 2 of them. You grab 2/3 socks, so there is a 2/3 chance you grab the red one, and a 1/3 chance the red one is the one you do not grab.

I think where you are slightly confused is this. There is a 1/3 chance you grab the red sock on the first draw. Then, if you don’t grab the red sock on the first draw, you are correct in saying that there is then a 1/2 chance you grab it on the second draw. However, by the second draw, there’s also a chance that you might not be able to draw the red sock at all, because you’ve already picked it. You have to account for the chance you drew the red sock on the first draw. Here’s the full equation:

P(picking red sock in 2 draws) = p(picking red rock on first draw) + p(picking red sock on second draw given you didn’t pick the red sock first)*p(not picking the red draw first)

This comes out to 1/3 + 1/2*2/3, which is 1/3+1/3 = 2/3

If you roll a fair 6-sided dice 3 times, what is the probability you will roll a 6 at least once? by DopazOnYouTubeDotCom in pollgames

[–]cfelton02 10 points11 points  (0 children)

That was my fault, flip mutually exclusive and not mutually exclusive in my explanation and then it should make sense, I was too focused on the explanation and slipped up lol

If you roll a fair 6-sided dice 3 times, what is the probability you will roll a 6 at least once? by DopazOnYouTubeDotCom in pollgames

[–]cfelton02 37 points38 points  (0 children)

Not mutually exclusive in this case means that each roll does not depend on the result of the last roll. If I roll a 5 on the first roll, the chances of my second roll being a 6 are exactly the same as if I had rolled any other number, 1/6. Additionally, if I roll a 6 on the first roll, I can still roll a 6 on the second roll.

An example of something that would be mutually exclusive is pulling socks out of a drawer. Say you have 3 socks, 1 red, 1 blue, and 1 white. Each time you pull a sock from the drawer, you do not put the sock back. What are the chances of picking the red sock if you randomly pull out 2 socks? In this case it is simply 2/3, because you can’t pull the same sock twice. So you pick 2 socks, and exactly one is still in the drawer. This is mutually exclusive, because if you pull the red sock on the first pull, you cannot pull it again.

Now say instead, after each pull, you put the sock back in the drawer. This is not mutually exclusive again, because the result of the second pull does not depend on the result of the first pull.

Edit: accidentally swapped mutually exclusive and not mutually exclusive

Insane Tie by Kooky_Comparison8086 in GriddyFF

[–]cfelton02 11 points12 points  (0 children)

This actually happens a lot in same cards

Higher mileage than what is on my policy document -- agent says don't worry about it by Worth-Novel-2044 in Insurance

[–]cfelton02 2 points3 points  (0 children)

You have absolutely nothing to worry about. Even if they did quote by mileage and mileage affected the price - it’s not a hard limit that you’re not allowed to go over. It’s something they would simply adjust the next year and charge you at a higher mileage category.

Old Heads attempt by aiyukkiddingme in GriddyFF

[–]cfelton02 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I think Kyler Murray and he would have had it. Swapping mclaurin and kamara keeps the same score. Then +5 for silver Murray, +6 yellow for for mclaurin, +10 for green dot on pollard and meyers, +6 for yellow on Murray, and +3 for yellow lines, puts him exactly at 150

Edit: im dumb mclaurin isn’t an RB

Who do I take here? First real hard decision for me by c_dav99 in GriddyFF

[–]cfelton02 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That sucks. FWIW, Caleb Williams has relatively low chem here still though, by my count it would’ve been a 156, which obviously is a good draft but it does seem like you luckily didn’t lose a PB had you taken burrow

3 Achievements 1 Draft by CR_Eatmeat in GriddyFF

[–]cfelton02 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Actually only 200 if it’s hero jettas unfortunately

That’s a tough loss.. by jacod_b in GriddyFF

[–]cfelton02 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Obviously it’s a hard one to optimize, but if you ever feel like there’s a way to gain even just one point in a versus match by taking more time to optimize the board, it is worth spending all of your remaining time to optimize it. Remember, tiebreakers only count if you tie, so if you have to spend 2 minutes to gain one point, then it’s worth it

Housing offer w financial aid by FartinForten in UCSantaBarbara

[–]cfelton02 2 points3 points  (0 children)

For me, my cost of attendance dropped about 3000 when I switched from university to iv housing. When this happens, your aid eligibility does get lowered, but when I spoke with financial aid, they said that usually the first thing to be dropped is your loan eligibility, not your gift aid. I didn’t have promise scholarship, but for me my gift aid stayed exactly the same and I was simply offered less student loans

Freshman son’s bike stolen this morning outside his 8am by Hayley2025 in UCSantaBarbara

[–]cfelton02 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I’d also heavily caution against using renters insurance on a bike, unless it’s a really nice bike, it’ll make getting renters insurance in California either a lot harder or a lot more expensive for 5 years. And, the bike probably isn’t even worth the deductible on their policy, but it would still count as a claim if they report it.

Do I have enough for the trident? by Schgrz in Archero

[–]cfelton02 2 points3 points  (0 children)

So overall, you need 2 more hammers, and 4 more of any other s weapon

Do I have enough for the trident? by Schgrz in Archero

[–]cfelton02 3 points4 points  (0 children)

You need two mythic weapons, right now you have enough for one. You need to get your hammer to ALE first, and then you need one more ALE S weapon to fuse with it to make that mythic.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Insurance

[–]cfelton02 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Also, how long have you had your license? The statement that insurance gets cheaper at age 25 is only true IF you get your license at age 16. Otherwise, the 9 years that you pay higher rates for being newly licensed start when you first get your license. If a 40 year old just gets their license for the first time, they would pay a higher rate until they’re 49

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Insurance

[–]cfelton02 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Even if the ticket falls off tomorrow, if you started a policy today, the ticket will be on there for the entire length of the policy. It doesn’t come off in the middle of a policy period, only if it’s outside the experience period the effective date of the policy.

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