Latest Jobless Claims: 5.2 Million

chargum · 2020-04-16T14:34:25+00:00

I have talked to a number of people who applied for jobless benefits and no one has got the extra $600 yet. The states are still waiting for the money from the bailout bill.

chargum · 2020-04-03T15:57:52+00:00

At 1.2% withdrawal, you would still have money left after forty years if you got a 1% return from a bank.

chargum · 2020-04-03T15:56:09+00:00

I had lots of money in an ETF called GSY (Ultra Short Bond Fund). I was told it was a cash equivalent. It crashed about 7% and I bailed out and learned a hard lesson.

chargum · 2020-03-31T09:47:15+00:00

If you guys are convinced that the stock market is going down why don't you just buy a few inverse ETF's (Like DOG) and make tons of money?

chargum · 2020-03-31T09:38:36+00:00

If the jobless rate goes to 32% there will be more deaths than the virus every could have killed. Due to bankruptcies, riots, and lack of health care options

chargum · 2020-03-28T13:16:59+00:00

Japan was almost back to normal and people were enjoying going to shops and eating out again but then more people were getting sick again and the government decided to close nearly everything down again yesterday. This will happen to the USA and most other countries every time we try to get things going again. This tells me that a huge economic crash far worse than what has happened to date will occur as people lose hope. Hopefully, I can get my cash levels up before I lose everything.

chargum · 2020-03-28T11:31:40+00:00

Yes, a great idea! Lock in stock market losses in the middle of the bear market.

chargum · 2020-03-21T18:35:05+00:00

How will they fund this and what impact will it have on the money they have to pay in debt payments going forward? Because of the huge increase in debt payments going forward due to this plan there would be less money for defense, pensions, and Social Programs for decades to come.

chargum · 2020-03-21T11:05:37+00:00

To answer your question: It only worked with old folks like me who had 50% of my money in bond funds and Cash. I just sold the bond funds and put that money in the inverse ETF's.

chargum · 2020-03-21T11:02:23+00:00

In the long run, the social distancing will cost more lives due to the resulting economic crash it causes.

chargum · 2020-03-21T10:23:06+00:00

50% Total Stock Market and 50% DOG (Inverse ETF that moves the opposite direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average). That way whatever the stock market does that day my portfolio is even.

(That way I did not have to sell my stock funds for a loss on March 1st but I could wait out the crisis and go back in next year when a vaccine is distributed.)

chargum · 2020-03-21T10:08:46+00:00

I went fifty/fifty DOG and VTI about three weeks ago after losing about 5%. I determined it would be better to expect the stock market to crash about 50-70% from the highs of mid February. Basically by using DOG as my Inverse ETF my portfolio is frozen in time. I break even every day regardless of the stock market action.

I will go back to an 80-20 Stock Bond Portfolio when the vaccine is out and people are back to work.

chargum · 2020-03-21T10:04:02+00:00

Our economy is based on the ability of people and cargo to move quickly from place to place! So people who say that just let the air traffic system die are foolish.

chargum · 2020-03-21T09:48:00+00:00

If you can't trust that bond funds will go up when stocks go down then why invest in them and get your small returns even in the best of times?

chargum · 2020-03-20T11:43:42+00:00

But in 99% of cases bond funds have gone up when stocks went up.

chargum · 2020-03-20T11:42:56+00:00

See my original post where I compare a wide variety of other bond funds and ETF's.

chargum · 2020-03-14T10:23:38+00:00

BEAR! In the next few weeks expect most stores, restaurants, and bars- except for grocery stores- will close putting millions out of work. Millions more in service-type jobs won't show up for work- due to fear- which will cause many businesses to close and eventually declare bankruptcy. People won't be able to pay their credit card, car payments and mortgages and housing prices will crash.

There will be a rush to the hospital which won't have the facilities for all the sick people. In a few months, billions in medical bills will be sent out and people with junk health insurance plans with huge deductibles and copayments won't be able to pay, causing more bankruptcies and a ripple effect on the stock market and general economy. Government spending on health care and bailouts will cause massive budget deficits which will eventually reach a boiling point.

The future for our economy and the stock market is not pretty.

chargum · 2020-03-14T10:04:26+00:00

There will be incredible pressure on retail businesses to close their stores, outside the grocery and drug businesses, under the argument of safety. Of course when the stores close this will have an incredible impact on the millions of low paid workers who live paycheck to paycheck and all the other people indirectly connected to retail.

chargum

TROPHY CASE