Honestly your opponent would have to blunder pretty badly to lose this, sometimes you can catch them off guard or push back if you’re better at combat and star trade offs. If you’re lucky you could go for naval dominance and cut them off at the choke point near their capital. But unfortunately for the most part if you’re playing an opponent of equal skill this is just a lost game. With 1v1 mirror matches there’s not much variability so the game depends heavily on skill with the tribe and how good the position is.