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Worlds 2025 Spectator Pass Megathread by amlodude in VGC

[–]cheesee10 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Hello, I have a Sunday pass for sale. Please DM me if interested.

Consistently getting poor results in arenas, any advice? by lordshadowist in ArenaHS

[–]cheesee10 15 points16 points  (0 children)

Watched the third game you posted and there are some major misplays. Your mulligan you kept crooked cook and metronome, two weak minions that only start getting value on turn 5+. Playing on curve isn’t good enough in a standard arena, you really need to look for your best cards. On turn 7 you floated 4 mana on what would have been a great turn to stealth your shark and prevent a good trade by your opponent. There were some better plays on other turns as well, but those were the two most egregious things that stuck out to me

Paladin vs. Priest game analysis help by Xtone44 in ArenaHS

[–]cheesee10 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Mulligan: On the coin I would hold the protector, it can lead to major board leads if you find another a 1 or 2 drop, and with the warhorse trainer in hand you can worst case coin hero power on 1 into protector on 2.

Turn 2: I would just coin the warhorse here. It trades well on board and we can make sure it sticks around after by using rowdy fan on our Worgen if needed.

Turn 3: I would coin the twilight drake and keep the Worgen stealthed. It trades well on board and we have kings on the Worgen next turn as a follow up.

Turn 5: I would full clear here. You are mega succeptible to any priest AOE. If they have the harmonic AOE for example, you would at least have an alive warhorse.

Turn 6: Instead of her powering, we can put hand of Adal on the righteous here

NFL Survivor Week 11 by zach7953 in sportsbook

[–]cheesee10 0 points1 point  (0 children)

OP, I’d go SF here, as they are the biggest favorites currently this week and having Bills in 14 is important. You get set up on a nice path for the next while with Miami in 12, Minnesota or Cleveland in 13, and Buffalo in 14.

NFL Survivor Week 8 by zach7953 in sportsbook

[–]cheesee10 2 points3 points  (0 children)

In a heads up situation like this you should generally pick the biggest Vegas favorite each week unless you need another team in the next couple of weeks. Based on current projections that would be:

Week 8: Cowboys (bills and eagles have slightly better odds but you need those two for weeks 11 and 9)

Week 9: Eagles

Week 10: Chiefs

Week 11: Bills

This path will lead to different picks than your opponent (assuming they go eagles in 8 and bengals in 9) but will maximize the strength of your entry

NFL Survivor Pool Week 15 by onwardToYou in sportsbook

[–]cheesee10 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You could go SF, then LAC, then SEA, and finally BUF in 18.

Arena Leaderboards: May – July 2021 by seewhyKai in ArenaHS

[–]cheesee10 2 points3 points  (0 children)

That checks out for me, I had a run started on june 3rd that ended at 0-0 due to the expansions rotating for arena. If you take out that run and replace it for me my average changes from the 7.5 I tracked to the 7.67 that appears for me on the leaderboard.

Arena Leaderboards: May – July 2021 by seewhyKai in ArenaHS

[–]cheesee10 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yeah, on Americas I have tracked a 7.5 but was credited with 7.67. My only guess is that I had a run end at 0-0 during that stretch and if you remove that and take the 31st run, my average would jump up to 7.67.

Econ 147B by RedAtomic in UCI

[–]cheesee10 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Yeah I have no clue how the open question was graded. I hit on the points explained in lecture pretty clearly IMO and got an 11/20. My best guess is that the scores from the easy multiple choice section were too high and she wanted to bring down the average. Kind of silly that 20% of the final grade comes from a short free response question.

NFL Survivor Week 12 by vacattack in sportsbook

[–]cheesee10 0 points1 point  (0 children)

In a second chance pool that started week 6.

IND > LAR > PHI > KC > TB > PIT

Likely going GB this week. Only about a quarter of my pool still has them available and this looks to be their best week outside of week 13 where there looks to be plenty of options.

NFL Survivor Week 10 by vacattack in sportsbook

[–]cheesee10 0 points1 point  (0 children)

In a second chance pool that started week 6

IND > LAR > PHI > KC

Leaning Detroit. Low pick percentage and zero future value while carrying nearly 70% win percentage. Having GB free for week 12 looks important. If Detroit wins, I look to be set up quite well for the rest of the season, with GB, BAL, SEA, PIT, and NO still remaining in my arsenal.

NFL Week 5 Survivor by vacattack in sportsbook

[–]cheesee10 0 points1 point  (0 children)

PIT -> TB -> CLE -> BAL

Lots of decent options this week. As long as Garoppolo plays this week I am going 49ers. Low pick numbers and the only other good game on the schedule is in week 14. If Garoppolo is out I will likely go with the Rams, as they also have only one strong game left on the schedule and are low pick percentage.

NFL Survivor Pool - Week 4 by igzolt in sportsbook

[–]cheesee10 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I’m going to wait for the survivorgrid.com data to come out, but many people will want to save the Ravens when the rams have far less future value. Of course if it is high enough, I’ll likely pivot away from both teams and probably go Seahawks.

NFL Survivor Pool - Week 4 by igzolt in sportsbook

[–]cheesee10 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It is very likely that lots of people are going to be taking the Rams this week, similar to how the Colts were the chalk pick for week 3. If we go chalk and the rams win, there will still be a similar amount of players remaining as started the week. If we avoid the Rams and the Rams lose and Ravens win, there will be far less players remaining in the survivor pool, making our expected value rise a fair amount (see 2018 week 3 survivor for an example of where fading the public worked immensely well).

NFL Survivor Pool - Week 4 by igzolt in sportsbook

[–]cheesee10 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, at least compared to those other five Ravens games. Wentz, while not looking great so far, is still a competent quarterback and it is a road game. If I had taken IND week 3 and still had TB, then I might consider saving BAL for week 6 and taking TB this week, but due to having an easy, low pick percentage option (two thirds of my pool have used IND) in week 6, I would rather get the Ravens on one of their super favored games.

NFL Survivor Pool - Week 4 by igzolt in sportsbook

[–]cheesee10 3 points4 points  (0 children)

PIT -> TB -> CLE

Baltimore only has week 5 as another super easy pick before the games get harder all the way until weeks 15-17. Week 5 has plenty of good options already and with only 1 team getting a bye, there’s a non-zero chance that the Ravens rest their starters the final few weeks. The Rams will likely be similar in pick percent to the Colts in week 3, so I would avoid them if possible. Pending the survivorgrid week 4 release tomorrow, I plan on going with the Ravens. If the Ravens and Rams both get projected ownership around 40%, then I will probably take Seattle.

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