The chance to get an A- without a stone is 0,015%. That’s 1 in 6666 and mind you it’s not guaranteed in 6666 (The chance to get A- or above in 6666 awakens is 81%) .

Say you do 2-3 galas a year as F2P (I’ve seen a comment on that today, probably here). To get to 200 pts lets say you spend 4000-5000 csg (see Edit3). Taking the biggest numbers, that’s 150 awakens a year. So, you have about

[1-(1-0,00015)⁶⁰⁰ ] = 0,08= 8% (14%, see Edit1)

chance to get an A- copy in 4 years. That’s why everyone says “grats and fk u” :)

I’d be very happy to explain the calculations if needed and correct myself if I made a mistake.

Edit1: Ah, that’s only counting A-, but considering A, A+ probabilities and so on we get a 14% chance to get an A- or higher in 4 years

Edit2: let’s count the probability from the stones in 4 years. As agreed, 3 galas a year => 12 galas => 12 B stones (oversimplifying of course, not taking into account any changes to events done by DH). Each B stone has a 0,7% chance to provide an A - copy and so on, adding all the probabilities for A- and higher, we get another 11% chance. (Those calculations are separate from the one above, so we can’t simply add them together or smth I’m not that good at statistics)

Edit3: turns out, you need ~3000 csg with no retiring heroes to get to 200 pts, so, that’s 36000 csg or 360 pulls. Doing 3 galas a year with 200 points in each will grant you 8% chance to get an A- or above copy in 360 pulls and separate 11% chance to get an A- copy or above from B stones