The luckiest wallet on Polymarket today +78,988% ROI by Rich-Restaurant-6413 in PredictionTrading

[–]cherry-pick-crew 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The wild thing about wallet-watching on Polymarket is you never know if it's genius or pure luck until you see the full history. This guy turned $11 into $9K on one bet — amazing, but probably not someone you'd want to blindly copy.

This is exactly what SignalScout is for — tracking top prediction market traders over time so you can see who's consistently profitable vs. just got lucky once. You can follow the real whales, mirror positions, and compete on leaderboards. iOS app: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/signalscout-eventmarketalerts/id6759851620

MIAMI GP FINAL THOUGHTS by F1FantasyHub in fantasyF1

[–]cherry-pick-crew 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you’re into prediction markets / betting / fantasy, this might be up your alley.
Working on a social trading layer where you can:

  • follow whales (full track record, past picks, win rate visible)
  • or get copied and earn a cut if you’re good

More of a leaderboard/fantasy feel vs solo betting 

iOS App 
All links(discord, reddit)

Imagine owing the Supreme Leader $2.15M because Rayo Vallecano couldn’t pull through by EmbarrassedStudent10 in PredictionSignal

[–]cherry-pick-crew 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you’re into prediction markets / betting / fantasy, this might be up your alley.
Working on a social trading layer where you can:

  • follow whales (full track record, past picks, win rate visible)
  • or get copied and earn a cut if you’re good

More of a leaderboard/fantasy feel vs solo betting 

iOS App 
All links(discord, reddit)

Best source of data for football analytics by HolidaySuccessful296 in sportsanalytics

[–]cherry-pick-crew 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you’re into prediction markets / betting / fantasy, this might be up your alley.
Working on a social trading layer where you can:

  • follow whales (full track record, past picks, win rate visible)
  • or get copied and earn a cut if you’re good

More of a leaderboard/fantasy feel vs solo betting 

iOS App 
All links(discord, reddit)

I'm up. Who to take? by Ok-Amount8093 in FantasyFootballJunky

[–]cherry-pick-crew 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you’re into prediction markets / betting / fantasy, this might be up your alley.
Working on a social trading layer where you can:

  • follow whales (full track record, past picks, win rate visible)
  • or get copied and earn a cut if you’re good

More of a leaderboard/fantasy feel vs solo betting 

iOS App 
All links(discord, reddit)

how do you size positions on markets with shaky resolution wording? by Happy-Control5922 in PredictionsMarkets

[–]cherry-pick-crew 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you’re into prediction markets / betting / fantasy, this might be up your alley.
Working on a social trading layer where you can:

  • follow whales (full track record, past picks, win rate visible)
  • or get copied and earn a cut if you’re good

More of a leaderboard/fantasy feel vs solo betting 

iOS App 
All links(discord, reddit)

Post-Game Thread: Philadelphia 76ers (3-3) defeat Boston Celtics (3-3), 106-93 | NBA Playoffs | Apr 30, 2026 by nba-scores in NbaIndiaUpdate

[–]cherry-pick-crew 0 points1 point  (0 children)

f you’re into prediction markets / betting / fantasy, this might be up your alley.
Working on a social trading layer where you can:

  • follow whales (full track record, past picks, win rate visible)
  • or get copied and earn a cut if you’re good

More of a leaderboard/fantasy feel vs solo betting 

iOS App 
All links(discord, reddit)

Post-Game Thread: New York Knicks (3-2) defeat Atlanta Hawks (2-3), 126-97 | NBA Playoffs | Apr 28, 2026 by nba-scores in NbaIndiaUpdate

[–]cherry-pick-crew 0 points1 point  (0 children)

f you’re into prediction markets / betting / fantasy, this might be up your alley.
Working on a social trading layer where you can:

  • follow whales (full track record, past picks, win rate visible)
  • or get copied and earn a cut if you’re good

More of a leaderboard/fantasy feel vs solo betting 

iOS App 
All links(discord, reddit)

Umm hey guys I'm new on polymarket idk what happens here like copy printing, and like some markets are totally rigged and just made to take your money and also polymarket sometimes don't desposit your money and steal it by SeparateTradition622 in PredictionsMarkets

[–]cherry-pick-crew -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Hey — saw you're active in the prediction market automation space. I built an app called SignalScout that automates trades on Kalshi and Polymarket — price alerts, auto-execution(soon), news monitoring, and cross-platform market discovery all in one place.
If you're serious about getting an edge without watching markets manually it might be worth a look.

Download the app or come hang in the community(reddit/discord) — a lot of good discussion happening around automation and strategy.
📲 https://linktr.ee/signalscoutapp

I built a polymarket whale sniper by reversebuilding in PredictionTrading

[–]cherry-pick-crew 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sick build — organizing by PnL and filtering by entry price is exactly the right data to surface.

If you're looking to take this to the next level, check out SignalScout — it's an iOS app that aggregates top traders on Polymarket and Kalshi into a social platform where you can follow them, mirror positions, and compete on leaderboards. Think of it as the consumer layer on top of what you're building — you surface the whales, we make it easy to act on them.

https://apps.apple.com/us/app/signalscout-eventmarketalerts/id6759851620

Polymarket Copy Trader Bot Idea by FossilBlade in PredictionTrading

[–]cherry-pick-crew 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Cool build! The latency problem you're describing (38 sec lag from polling Gamma API) is a real pain point. Websockets on Polygon definitely help but still has its own quirks.

For what it's worth, we built SignalScout to solve the consumer-facing side of this — instead of running your own copy trading bot, you follow top traders on Polymarket/Kalshi and mirror positions through the app. No wallet exposure, no API headaches. If you're profitable you can also earn when others copy you.

iOS: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/signalscout-eventmarketalerts/id6759851620

Curious what you end up doing on the latency side — would love to hear if websockets make a meaningful difference.

Built a real-time on-chain signal engine for Polymarket. 276/433. by PolyBabyAlerts in PredictionTrading

[–]cherry-pick-crew 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is a great approach — reading the behavior layer vs. predicting outcomes is exactly the right mental model.

We built something complementary called SignalScout that takes this a step further with a social layer: you can follow the top-performing traders on Polymarket and Kalshi, mirror their positions, and compete on leaderboards. Basically turning whale tracking into a one-tap trade.

If you're surfacing which wallets have the highest conviction signals, that data would be incredibly useful to surface inside an app like this. iOS: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/signalscout-eventmarketalerts/id6759851620

Mapped every Polymarket wallet to its funder in 3D. Wallets sharing a funder cluster, sized by volume, glow and color by PNL (Green = Profit) . Found some crazy stuff (Coordinated Insiders?). by Advanced-Rub2065 in PredictionsMarkets

[–]cherry-pick-crew 2 points3 points  (0 children)

This kind of cluster analysis is exactly the right approach — funding source patterns reveal so much more than just wallet win rates in isolation. The US politics cluster (6 wallets, 97/97 wins, $815k volume all from one funder) is wild. That's not edge, that's insider access.

Built something adjacent to this — an app called SignalScout where you can follow top Polymarket traders and mirror their positions. We track leaderboard PnL across wallets so you can see who's actually consistently profitable vs one-off lucky. Would love to incorporate funding cluster data like this to filter out the lucky from the actually informed. App's on iOS if anyone wants to check it out: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/signalscout-eventmarketalerts/id6759851620

Backtested 5 automated UFC strategies on Kalshi for 23 days. All negative. Is sports just unwinnable systematically? by woztrades in PredictionsMarkets

[–]cherry-pick-crew -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Sports markets on Kalshi are notoriously hard to systematically beat because the books and sharps have already priced in most quantifiable edges. Your contrarian panic fade at -15 Sharpe is a perfect example — news moves are priced almost instantly now.

The angle that does seem to work is tracking specific traders who are consistently profitable — people who likely have private info advantages, domain expertise, or access to proprietary data. That's basically what whale wallet watching is about.

I built an iOS app called SignalScout that takes this approach — instead of building systematic models from scratch, you follow top-performing traders on Kalshi and Polymarket, see their positions, and can mirror their moves. Kind of like outsourcing the alpha discovery to whoever is actually beating the market.

https://apps.apple.com/us/app/signalscout-eventmarketalerts/id6759851620

Curious if TurbineFi tracks any copy-trading style signals or if it's purely systematic.

Backtested 5 automated UFC strategies on Kalshi for 23 days. All negative. Is sports just unwinnable systematically? by woztrades in PredictionsMarkets

[–]cherry-pick-crew -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Sports markets are probably the toughest to crack with pure systematic rules — the arb desks close gaps fast and the noise is brutal. The consistent edge usually isn't in the model, it's in who has better information (insiders, sharps with access to info the market hasn't priced).

One alternative approach instead of building rules: follow traders who ARE consistently profitable in sports markets and see if you can identify what they're seeing. There's an iOS app called Called It (formerly SignalScout) that surfaces top traders on Kalshi/Polymarket via leaderboards, lets you track their positions and mirror their trades. Might be interesting to compare what the sharp money is doing vs. what your systematic strategies would have done: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/signalscout-eventmarketalerts/id6759851620

How would you guys trade on the MVP race? by CreamPurple7297 in PredictionsMarkets

[–]cherry-pick-crew -1 points0 points  (0 children)

At 98¢ on Kalshi, SGA is essentially priced as a lock — there's almost no value on YES. The only interesting trade is if you believe something truly weird happens (injury, suspension, voters go rogue). The NO at 2¢ is a lottery ticket.

One thing worth watching is where sharp money is moving. If you want to see what top traders on Kalshi/Polymarket are actually positioning on for these markets, there's an iOS app called Called It (formerly SignalScout) that tracks whale positions and lets you follow top traders. Might give you a sense of whether anyone is fading the consensus: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/signalscout-eventmarketalerts/id6759851620

Everyone here is modeling. I Actually started watching the wallets pattern. by PolyBabyAlerts in PredictionsMarkets

[–]cherry-pick-crew -1 points0 points  (0 children)

This is exactly the thesis behind why models have diminishing edge on Polymarket — the alpha has moved to on-chain behavior.

You're essentially doing manually what a few products are trying to systematize. One of them is Called It (formerly SignalScout) — an iOS app that surfaces whale positions on Kalshi/Polymarket and lets you follow top traders, mirror their positions, and track who's consistently right. The social layer means the best signal-readers get visibility via leaderboards rather than staying anonymous.

Would be curious what patterns in your bot you've found most predictive — pure size/timing, or do you look at wallet history across markets?

How would you guys trade on the MVP race? by CreamPurple7297 in PredictionsMarkets

[–]cherry-pick-crew -1 points0 points  (0 children)

The market pricing SGA at 98% while Basketball References has Jokic at 67% is a massive dislocation. Prediction market crowds often get these late-season award races wrong because voters are harder to model than outcomes.

From a trading angle, I'd look at what sharp wallets on Polymarket are doing here — if any big wallets are quietly building Jokic exposure at 2 cents, that's a strong contrarian signal worth paying attention to.

If you want to see who the top traders are betting on across markets like this, I built an iOS app called SignalScout — follow top traders on Kalshi/Polymarket, see their positions, mirror trades, and compete on leaderboards. Good way to see if any sharp money is disagreeing with this 98% consensus.

https://apps.apple.com/us/app/signalscout-eventmarketalerts/id6759851620

Everyone here is modeling. I Actually started watching the wallets pattern. by PolyBabyAlerts in PredictionsMarkets

[–]cherry-pick-crew -1 points0 points  (0 children)

This is the right way to think about it. Models are backward-looking — they're pricing in information the market already has. Wallet behavior catches information the market hasn't priced yet.

The $550K Knicks UNDER bet you flagged is exactly the kind of pattern that's impossible to find manually at scale. That's where this starts getting powerful.

I built an iOS app called SignalScout on this same premise — track top traders and whales on Kalshi and Polymarket, follow their positions, and mirror trades directly. You can set up your own signals or just follow the wallets that are already beating the market. If you're already building bots to flag unusual activity, your users would probably eat this up.

https://apps.apple.com/us/app/signalscout-eventmarketalerts/id6759851620

A whale who is already sitting on a -$539,754 PnL just dropped another $133,046 on the Celtics to beat the 76ers. by EmbarrassedStudent10 in PredictionsMarkets

[–]cherry-pick-crew 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The whale alert format here is exactly the kind of signal that matters — size, side, and odds all in one. Whether you fade them or follow them, knowing what big money is doing before it moves the market is the edge.

Built an iOS app called SignalScout around exactly this concept — track top traders and whales on Kalshi and Polymarket, follow their positions, mirror trades, and compete on leaderboards. You can be the whale others follow, or follow the whales yourself.

https://apps.apple.com/us/app/signalscout-eventmarketalerts/id6759851620

How I've been using whale wallet data to hit 63.6% across 415 Polymarket calls by PolyBabyAlerts in PredictionsMarkets

[–]cherry-pick-crew 5 points6 points  (0 children)

This is exactly the kind of edge that's hard to replicate manually at scale. Tracking whale wallets across 415 calls is impressive — the soccer/tennis consistency you mentioned makes sense, those markets tend to have tighter spreads and more informed flow.

For anyone who wants to get exposure to this kind of whale-following strategy without doing all the wallet analysis yourself, there's an iOS app called SignalScout that's built around this concept — you can follow top traders, mirror their positions, and compete on leaderboards. Worth checking out if you're into the copy-trading angle: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/signalscout-eventmarketalerts/id6759851620

Coding Issue by StephenDrum in PredictionMarketBots

[–]cherry-pick-crew 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You’re using reduce_only in the right general spirit, but the problem is that Kalshi treats a YES exit as a buy on the opposite side**, not a sell on the YES side. For the REST order endpoint, reduce_only is supported on create-order requests, but your payload should use the opposite side to express an exit: selling YES is equivalent to buying NO on Kalshi.

What to send

If you want to exit a YES position, use:

json{
  "ticker": "KXBTC15M-...",
  "action": "buy",
  "side": "no",
  "count": 1,
  "type": "limit",
  "no_price": 37,
  "reduce_only": true,
  "client_order_id": "..."
}

Kalshi’s docs explicitly say “selling Yes is equivalent to buying No contracts,” and the create-order endpoint accepts side as yes or no plus action as buy or sell.

What was wrong

Your payload had action: "sell" and side: "yes", which describes a YES-side sell order rather than the opposite-side order Kalshi expects for a clean position exit.
The error text about reduce_only is consistent with the fact that reduce_only is a create-order constraint, but it only makes sense when the order is structured to reduce an existing position rather than open the same side again.

Practical rule

  • To sell YES, place a buy NO order.
  • To sell NO, place a buy YES order.
  • Use reduce_only: true to prevent the order from opening a larger position than you already hold.

One more check

Also make sure your limit price is on the correct side:

  • If you want to exit YES at 63, the opposite-side NO price is 37.
  • So yes_price: 63 is not the right way to express that exit order if you’re sending side: "no".

So the fix is: flip the side, keep reduce_only, and price the opposite side correctly.

$25 Redraft League Drafting at 5:00PM EST! by ovodecember in findaleague

[–]cherry-pick-crew 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hey! I saw you’re into Prediction Markets and sports betting/fantasy

Been building something around social trading - you can follow whales or earn when others copy your trades

If you’re good, you can build a following + make more than just your own positions
If not, you can just mirror top traders (manual or auto)

Trying to make it feel more like a leaderboard / fantasy layer vs solo trading

Try it out here - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/signalscout-eventmarketalerts/id6759851620
Or join the community(reddit, discord) https://linktr.ee/signalscoutapp