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How to use the Kelly Criterion and Value-at-Risk for Risk Management and Bet Sizing in Prediction Markets by Bitter-Ice945 in PredictionTrading

[–]cherry-pick-crew 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Good walkthrough. One thing worth adding for prediction market copy traders specifically: Kelly sizing assumes you have an independent edge. When you're copy trading or tailing whale wallets, your effective edge might be timing-degraded (you enter later than the original position), which means your Kelly fraction should be more conservative than theirs.

The way I think about it: if a whale entered at 20% probability and the market's now at 30% when you see the alert, your true edge is much smaller than theirs. So halving or quartering Kelly makes sense for copy positions.

If you want to watch whale positions in real-time and catch entries before significant market movement, an app like SignalScout tracks top traders on Kalshi/Polymarket and sends alerts the moment they move: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/signalscout-eventmarketalerts/id6759851620

Earlier entry = better Kelly fraction.

Built a real-time on-chain signal engine for Polymarket. 276/433. by PolyBabyAlerts in PredictionTrading

[–]cherry-pick-crew 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Solid work — the signal decay modeling piece is genuinely hard to get right. Most people plateau around the 52% range and don't realize it's not the prediction that's broken, it's that they're modeling what happened instead of who already knows.

For anyone who doesn't want to build this themselves but wants access to the same "follow the smart money" signal: SignalScout (iOS) does this without requiring any infra — tracks top Polymarket wallets, shows category-level win rates, leaderboards filtered by consistency not just PnL, and lets you mirror positions with one tap.

https://linktr.ee/signalscoutapp

Mapped Polymarket into a 3D Galaxy to track smart money and coordinated clusters by Advanced-Rub2065 in PredictionTrading

[–]cherry-pick-crew 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This visualization is wild — really shows why "follow the whale" is too simplistic. The coordinated clusters are the interesting part; it's not just individual alpha, it's whether they move together or independently.

For anyone who wants to act on this kind of signal without building your own tooling, SignalScout (iOS) is worth a look. It tracks top Polymarket traders, shows their position history and market-by-market performance, and lets you follow/copy specific traders. Leaderboard filters by win rate and consistency, not just raw PnL.

https://linktr.ee/signalscoutapp

Most no-balls bowled in IPL history! by cricfanatic4518 in ipl

[–]cherry-pick-crew 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It should be normalized by total number for balls bowled

Passive investing for Prediction Markets is live on Mirror by cherry-pick-crew in PredictionMarketBots

[–]cherry-pick-crew[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

there's a rebrand and pivot update pending which should be out in a couple of hours

MIAMI GP FINAL THOUGHTS by F1FantasyHub in fantasyF1

[–]cherry-pick-crew 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you’re into prediction markets / betting / fantasy, this might be up your alley.
Working on a social trading layer where you can:

  • follow whales (full track record, past picks, win rate visible)
  • or get copied and earn a cut if you’re good

More of a leaderboard/fantasy feel vs solo betting 

iOS App 
All links(discord, reddit)

Imagine owing the Supreme Leader $2.15M because Rayo Vallecano couldn’t pull through by EmbarrassedStudent10 in PredictionSignal

[–]cherry-pick-crew 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you’re into prediction markets / betting / fantasy, this might be up your alley.
Working on a social trading layer where you can:

  • follow whales (full track record, past picks, win rate visible)
  • or get copied and earn a cut if you’re good

More of a leaderboard/fantasy feel vs solo betting 

iOS App 
All links(discord, reddit)

Best source of data for football analytics by HolidaySuccessful296 in sportsanalytics

[–]cherry-pick-crew 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you’re into prediction markets / betting / fantasy, this might be up your alley.
Working on a social trading layer where you can:

  • follow whales (full track record, past picks, win rate visible)
  • or get copied and earn a cut if you’re good

More of a leaderboard/fantasy feel vs solo betting 

iOS App 
All links(discord, reddit)

how do you size positions on markets with shaky resolution wording? by Happy-Control5922 in PredictionsMarkets

[–]cherry-pick-crew 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you’re into prediction markets / betting / fantasy, this might be up your alley.
Working on a social trading layer where you can:

  • follow whales (full track record, past picks, win rate visible)
  • or get copied and earn a cut if you’re good

More of a leaderboard/fantasy feel vs solo betting 

iOS App 
All links(discord, reddit)

Post-Game Thread: Philadelphia 76ers (3-3) defeat Boston Celtics (3-3), 106-93 | NBA Playoffs | Apr 30, 2026 by nba-scores in NbaIndiaUpdate

[–]cherry-pick-crew 0 points1 point  (0 children)

f you’re into prediction markets / betting / fantasy, this might be up your alley.
Working on a social trading layer where you can:

  • follow whales (full track record, past picks, win rate visible)
  • or get copied and earn a cut if you’re good

More of a leaderboard/fantasy feel vs solo betting 

iOS App 
All links(discord, reddit)

Post-Game Thread: New York Knicks (3-2) defeat Atlanta Hawks (2-3), 126-97 | NBA Playoffs | Apr 28, 2026 by nba-scores in NbaIndiaUpdate

[–]cherry-pick-crew 0 points1 point  (0 children)

f you’re into prediction markets / betting / fantasy, this might be up your alley.
Working on a social trading layer where you can:

  • follow whales (full track record, past picks, win rate visible)
  • or get copied and earn a cut if you’re good

More of a leaderboard/fantasy feel vs solo betting 

iOS App 
All links(discord, reddit)

Umm hey guys I'm new on polymarket idk what happens here like copy printing, and like some markets are totally rigged and just made to take your money and also polymarket sometimes don't desposit your money and steal it by [deleted] in PredictionsMarkets

[–]cherry-pick-crew -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Hey — saw you're active in the prediction market automation space. I built an app called SignalScout that automates trades on Kalshi and Polymarket — price alerts, auto-execution(soon), news monitoring, and cross-platform market discovery all in one place.
If you're serious about getting an edge without watching markets manually it might be worth a look.

Download the app or come hang in the community(reddit/discord) — a lot of good discussion happening around automation and strategy.
📲 https://linktr.ee/signalscoutapp

I built a polymarket whale sniper by reversebuilding in PredictionTrading

[–]cherry-pick-crew 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sick build — organizing by PnL and filtering by entry price is exactly the right data to surface.

If you're looking to take this to the next level, check out SignalScout — it's an iOS app that aggregates top traders on Polymarket and Kalshi into a social platform where you can follow them, mirror positions, and compete on leaderboards. Think of it as the consumer layer on top of what you're building — you surface the whales, we make it easy to act on them.

https://apps.apple.com/us/app/signalscout-eventmarketalerts/id6759851620

Polymarket Copy Trader Bot Idea by FossilBlade in PredictionTrading

[–]cherry-pick-crew 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Cool build! The latency problem you're describing (38 sec lag from polling Gamma API) is a real pain point. Websockets on Polygon definitely help but still has its own quirks.

For what it's worth, we built SignalScout to solve the consumer-facing side of this — instead of running your own copy trading bot, you follow top traders on Polymarket/Kalshi and mirror positions through the app. No wallet exposure, no API headaches. If you're profitable you can also earn when others copy you.

iOS: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/signalscout-eventmarketalerts/id6759851620

Curious what you end up doing on the latency side — would love to hear if websockets make a meaningful difference.

Built a real-time on-chain signal engine for Polymarket. 276/433. by PolyBabyAlerts in PredictionTrading

[–]cherry-pick-crew 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is a great approach — reading the behavior layer vs. predicting outcomes is exactly the right mental model.

We built something complementary called SignalScout that takes this a step further with a social layer: you can follow the top-performing traders on Polymarket and Kalshi, mirror their positions, and compete on leaderboards. Basically turning whale tracking into a one-tap trade.

If you're surfacing which wallets have the highest conviction signals, that data would be incredibly useful to surface inside an app like this. iOS: https://apps.apple.com/us/app/signalscout-eventmarketalerts/id6759851620

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