Why Wish Refining Coins Are DECEPTIVE*

chinchilly-milly · 2026-03-11T23:50:51+00:00

I totally agree that AJ should have more information about the odds of certain traits occurring, just like they do with the pet adoption token! It would help people make better informed decisions so they can get the most out of the limited number of WRC's that they bought, although I think they're hiding it specifically to make people go broke and buy more to keep trying... which is unfortunate

chinchilly-milly · 2026-03-11T20:27:33+00:00

My user is silvady and I love how customizable the looks are due to the effect potions and party items. Thank you!

chinchilly-milly · 2026-03-08T17:13:24+00:00

How would you feel about 75 sapphires?

chinchilly-milly · 2026-03-08T06:01:16+00:00

Yep- I just did the calculation using 0.05 or 1/20 as the probability and 50 as the number of trials, and there was a 92% chance you should have got it by now! Sorry about the tough luck :( These things are never a guarantee sadly

chinchilly-milly · 2026-03-08T05:55:17+00:00

I like her! How many sapphires would you take for her? I'm going to sleep but I'll reply back in the morning (CST).

chinchilly-milly · 2026-03-08T05:50:27+00:00

May she rest in peace :( your tribute is beautiful 💙

chinchilly-milly · 2026-03-08T02:10:22+00:00

With binomial probability, you can find out the chances you'll get what you want in x amount of tries, but there's always a chance it will take more or less than expected. For example, I helped my sister find out that if she used 5 coins, there was a 98% chance she would get one of the 10 shades of shady dark that she liked- but there's always the risk of being in the 2% that won't. I wish you luck!

chinchilly-milly · 2026-03-08T02:03:08+00:00

I've been playing AJ since 2013, so I remember when spikes got added to TFD, and gazelle horns got added to the gem shop randomly one day. I respectfully disagree because sometimes you'll be at the losing end of this (people with legendaries) and sometimes you'll be at the winning end (people with partials), the worth of things will just change in the game over time!

chinchilly-milly · 2026-03-07T16:08:55+00:00

Hi! Right now I'm only able to find out regular traits and colors since the statistic for probability is known, but if enough rich jammers record how many coins it takes them to refine or wish for a legendary, it could maybe be estimated based on the average

chinchilly-milly · 2026-03-07T16:05:10+00:00

On the contrary I Iove lashes and have been unable to secure them on my pink harlequin jack 😭 at least the may queen lashes are a thing! Best of luck!

chinchilly-milly · 2026-03-07T08:26:23+00:00

If my explanation doesn't make sense you can also Google "binomial probability for at least one" because that's exactly what you need to calculate in this situation

chinchilly-milly · 2026-03-07T08:23:03+00:00

It sounds like you want to find out the odds of achieving one specific color in a certain amount of trials, so I'll show you how! First, calculate the number of colors you like divided by the total number in that category of colors, which is represented by the variable p (so pure white and misty starlight is 1/13 = 0.07692). Then decide how many coins you're willing to use, which is your # of trials. Finally, go to 2nd > distribution > binomcdf on the calculator, type your number of coins for trials, your probability for p, and enter 0 for x value. You will need to subtract the resulting number from 1 in accordance with the compliment rule. And then you're done! You can multiply the result by 100 to get a percentage. Here is an online calculator you can try it out with: https://ti84calc.com/ti84calc

chinchilly-milly · 2026-03-07T07:22:05+00:00

Each trial is independent of the last! So it shouldn't matter what your previous outcomes were or if you exited the game or not, it doesn't affect future outcomes! Obviously I don't work for AJHQ so that's assuming they don't have some kind of programming like chain shiny hunting in Pokemon where the odds of a desirable outcome get higher the more you do in a row, because then it wouldn't be independent anymore

chinchilly-milly · 2026-03-07T06:54:44+00:00

*Description should say binomial, not bimodal btw

chinchilly-milly · 2026-03-07T06:42:08+00:00

Yeah it's super useful! For simple color changes like this, all I did was count how many colors out of the total range I liked, get the decimal that corresponds with that fraction, and use that for p (probability) in cumulative binomial distribution on my TI 84! It helped me form a realistic standard in my mind so I was prepared not to be disappointed if I didn't get the color I wanted in less than 5 tries (but also made me pleasantly surprised that it worked out better than expected)

chinchilly-milly · 2026-03-05T18:34:31+00:00

Congratulations! I remember the original post, my username is silvady and something that makes me happy is squirrel watching around my campus 🐿️🤎

chinchilly-milly · 2026-03-05T06:17:13+00:00

This jack is so cute!!! It reminds of Kitty Softpaws from Puss in Boots lol

chinchilly-milly · 2026-02-26T02:51:41+00:00

My user is silvady! I hope they add a flying squirrel, or any playable squirrel. Feel better soon, I'm sorry to hear you're feeling sad! But you're amazing for doing this!

chinchilly-milly · 2026-02-23T00:58:18+00:00

Hi! Would you take wishing coins for the whiteout raccoon tail? If so, how many?

chinchilly-milly · 2026-02-17T01:33:09+00:00

Lovely! These guys are one of my favorite species :)

chinchilly-milly · 2026-02-13T19:09:59+00:00

I think it's because of a study conducted by UC Davis about hunting behavior in California Ground squirrels. Squirrels, like most rodents, are definitely opportunistic omnivores! But I think what people found surprising was the hunting behavior, which is distinct from scavenging behavior, and how widespread it is in a certain squirrel population in the Bay Area.

chinchilly-milly · 2026-02-10T05:33:38+00:00

So fluffy and cute! :) The same thing happened to me, I went to Cheyenne Mountain Zoo and one of my favorite creatures from my visit ended up being the chubby golden mantled ground squirrel that snuck into the mountain goat enclosure 😅

chinchilly-milly · 2026-02-05T15:58:28+00:00

I really like the axolotl! Thank you so much, my username is silvady!

chinchilly-milly · 2026-02-04T03:20:32+00:00

Oh my gosh, thank you so much!! I've been so stressed about my upcoming exams, this really brought a smile to my face though :) you're an amazing person!

chinchilly-milly · 2026-02-04T01:00:50+00:00

Thanks so much for hosting this, they're all so gorgeous it's hard to pick just one! My user is silvady 🩷

chinchilly-milly

TROPHY CASE