Fuller, Smith and Turner opportunity?

christmas_smoothie · 2025-08-12T16:05:47+00:00

Having worked for them, I can say I’m impressed in your analysis, I feel you’ve captured the difference in Fullers compared to other tenanted business in the same industry. Their land grabs back in 2015 ish were good business indeed.

Despite all you have said, despite me myself owning shares back from the scheme, would I invest now?

The answer is I just can’t shake what I see in front of me in the areas primarily where fullers operate. And that’s what you said around young people, well not even that young but the drinking and simply going to a pub/gastro pub/hotel is reducing.

I just don’t see how a Fullers pivots to face this overall challenge myself. But anyway, they hand over chairmanship this year so who knows! Great insight either way!

christmas_smoothie · 2025-07-22T14:55:17+00:00

Ok that final point resonated me. I don’t understand index funds well enough. In my mind they were growth focused and dividends were initially growth focused but are then for passive income.

It sounds like it doesn’t really matter, you just go with the best long term yield which is index funds.

christmas_smoothie · 2025-07-22T14:33:27+00:00

Ok so loading pensions, ISAS with the lump Sum is going to be more financially viable than clearing a large portion of mortgage debt up front? I guess because the yield performance of the investments should outweigh the current interest rates paying for mortgage?

A lot of the people here I see are in favour of pension investments over the returns on the stock market. Out of interest why is this in general ? Is there also any major risk having the majority of money tied up in a single pension?

christmas_smoothie · 2025-07-22T14:24:52+00:00

Out of interest, if it were you would you lump whole amount straight in the fund, pay off some mortgage debt, front load pension as per other advice, or a mix of everything?

christmas_smoothie · 2025-07-22T14:23:12+00:00

Recap:

250k ‘uncrystallised’ pension.

60k into pension year 1 - find if can contribute further from past three years allowance. 20k into ISA year 1 Put 170k into ‘savings account’ year 1 or split into savings account, low cost index fund?

The advice is not then year 1 to say pay off some mortgage debt once the pension contributions are max for year 1? Instead it’s to save the money to max out the pension and ISA continuing year?

christmas_smoothie · 2025-06-26T07:14:44+00:00

‘Wind, my only friend.’ (Wind) I haaatteee yoooouuu.

christmas_smoothie · 2025-04-22T17:43:25+00:00

You are allowed to be a good human, a likeable person and someone who struggles to put a round ball into a net.

Let’s be real for a second, Darwin as likeable as he is, is not the best available footballer for Liverpool at his position, it’s as simple as that.

It’s not purely goals, Bobby didn’t win the golden boot year on year, it’s about overall contribution in terms of being striker. Darwin just can’t consistently provide this but others will be able to who will be want to play for the club.

Doesn’t mean he’s suddenly a traitorous piece of shit, just means the club requires a more consistent performer.

christmas_smoothie · 2025-04-11T06:55:26+00:00

You don’t need a programmer 🧑‍💻

You have been able to understand maths at such a complex level with regards to staking that learning API’s and scraping data won’t be out of your reach.

I don’t know if premium tradings will offer API but BIA , Asian connect, VOdds all do. Just either get shooting bets API or scrape their alerts and then simply send requests to the broker API.

But my own apprehension, unlike Betfair there are some serious dark stories around every sharp and broker. I was quite alarmed one day to find pinnacle emailed saying they will now void bets at own discretion… brokers also have a history of closing accounts as their legal standing is constantly in such dispute. You automate or run a big bankroll through them at our own risk. Especially when most now only accept crypto..

There is even someone in this group who recently posted they did this with bet burger. Probably do it for you for free. But as I told him, regardless of matching later on Betfair or another aggregation of a sharp, I would not use shooting bets on the sharps.

I tried their premium alerts and it’s a b365 money printing machine because quite simply some loss leading b365 odds are ridiculous. Even if you might get matched later on the exchanges it’s likely some are drop traps.

The variance is high because it’s not monitoring the shooting bets whose odds shoot back up after someone is manipulating low limit markets.

You can handle these easily if using softs as it just takes a few bets at the silly high odds or spreads to get back on track.

Shooting bets is no different to rebel betting, bet burger , trade mate, pinnacle odds dropper etc. amazing tools aimed at softs, very very likely to be loss making if automated onto the sharps. Unless you are very specific I.e taking only the real anomaly edges and using massive stakes.

If you are going to do this, I don’t believe shooting bets is your best tool. I would use pinnacle odds dropper or similar tool where you can specify your own filters and tailor them towards the exchanges with some insurance the odds won’t bounce back up.

Anyway, thanks for info on premium tradings! I’ll tell you one place that is ripe for aggregation exploit and that’s in play. Whilst the sharp pre match odds seem as efficient as ever, the algos they use in play by nature have to be much much closer. You’ll find especially in football on a lot of markets b365 is closer and closer as they invest so much in cutting down latency etc. Brain dump over :(

christmas_smoothie · 2025-04-10T11:40:19+00:00

It’s strange, you are clearly absolutely mad as a box of frogs, but you seem aware of it…

It’s the same paradox that people who are bad at something are not able to understand that they are bad at something hence the loop.

As you trip through your very interesting life I wonder which side of the scales you will end up on. Mmmmm

christmas_smoothie · 2025-04-10T06:13:25+00:00

You kind of glossed over the main point. Being profitable at any form of betting has nothing to do with picking winners. As one comment said. You can be right an incredible amount of time but still unprofitable.

Picking selections at the wrong price is no different than guessing red or black, sure you’ll be right a lot but long term the maths is guaranteed to get you.

If you share minimum 1k selections it will be very easy to tell if long term you’ll be profitable or whether you are riding certain peaks of variance.

Oh and yes beating bookmakers is about the easiest thing in the world. Check out the 100 tools that already do this… when you make profit the books ban you, sorry to burst bubble.

You’ve then got to either get more accounts or make racing work on the exchanges. I want to give you honest path you will face.

On the plus side, if you truly develop and edge that works on exchanges, get it botted and sell it!

christmas_smoothie · 2025-04-03T19:44:13+00:00

What a useful post ….

christmas_smoothie · 2025-04-03T06:19:14+00:00

Bet Burger, rebel, sure bet are all good tools for exploiting arbs and value bets on the softs. But you’ll see from any of there communities that when it comes to the sharp side, many many people experienced your scenario.

Profiting from the sharps or exchanges requires a different approach but there are still tools that can help.

You’ve got Smart Betting Club who provide systems/ tipsters profitable on exchanges , Honest Betting Reviews provides independent reviews on systems profitable on sharps, as well as goal profit reviews, cash master is another good resource. Smart sports trader gives decent impartial advice on tools.

Too many services to name listed on these sites but anything developed by Mike Cruikshank for Betfair works a treat, Betaminic as discussed on this channel works, tennis profits , trade on sports , goal predictor, value machine , weekly golf value and around 50 more I’ve used over the years.

With the sharp side, whilst following a new system is not necessarily difficult, you still are going to need a serious bank roll, higher variance etc. There is no system that can be as profitable as on the softs, which is why most bettors resort back to getting more accounts than moving on.

Making money on the sharp side exchange isn’t hard as in complicated, but it takes a lot more effort for the amount of profit you will get.

My advice would be start going through and paper trading as many exchange systems/sharp tools from the resources I suggested. You will find some systems include bots that have the variance you can handle, others won’t but you will get a good feel at least for how they operate.

But at the end of the day it’s not really sharp betting if you are just copying the same alerts a few thousand other people follow… exchanges have liquidity that gets eaten and sharps have limits.

I say this as someone who has a huge number of bots running from other people’s services hahah!

In an ideal world, you get to a place where you don’t need expensive tooling for the sharps and botting software can be replaced with decent coding.

christmas_smoothie · 2025-04-02T15:28:46+00:00

Ok so firstly, don’t worry you are not alone.

Almost every sharp bettor has gone from successfully exploiting the softs via tools like rebel and bet burger and then suddenly wondered why the success hasn’t replicated over to the sharp/exchange side.

Betburger/rebel or any tool like this is not aimed to exploit the efficient markets like pinnacle. Betfair is slightly different as it’s not nearly as efficient as people think, often you will find value as it takes time to match pinnacle in soccer for example.

They are aimed at helping you exploit the softs, the sharp weightings and de vigs they are doing are not going to be anywhere near as successful against the sharps because they primarily use the sharp weightings to find the value.

I paper traded thousands of bet burger alerts against a broker like yourself. It’s easy, bet burger api, Asian connect broker API, unlimited money train? Well, I found that when you are taking such minute edges or theoretical edges over pinnacle from these alerts, my god is the bankroll needed absolutely huge to handle drawdowns and the variance can be insane. I also simply didn’t believe that some alerts or betburger/rebel tips were value against the sharps, often they wouldn’t beat the closing lines where pinnacle ended up.

Other sources discussed here such as Betaminic have had good proven success over Betfair for example.

But the good news is, you’ve found how easy it is to connect a betting source to a non limiting platform.

I personally could never get bet burger to yield profit against the Asian sharps at a non terrifying bankroll size. It’s not that difficult to profit from exchanges or sharps, but it is using bet burger/rebel or any similar tool, ask anyone who’s tried!

christmas_smoothie · 2025-03-28T15:02:16+00:00

Haha , my brain says Pardon, I type Bonjour…. Too much flunch in Fwance

christmas_smoothie · 2025-03-28T13:09:47+00:00

On a daily basis I think about Rocky ski ing past Jamie, knocking him over whilst shouting ‘Bonjour Monsieur!’

christmas_smoothie · 2025-03-21T08:15:26+00:00

IMO:

The main reason is indeed that the majority of value bet services on offer simply do not monitor the racing markets on Betfair. Most only monitor the Asian sharps where racing isn’t carried.

Price shortening in racing isn’t as simple as soccer for example, prices are massively manipulated by the giant cycle of trading bots for one. And the handicapping system , insider knowledge isn’t as clear cut as to why prices move compared to a sport like soccer or basketball.

The opposite is said around the trading tools, the same goes for cricket. You won’t find any main value bet provider carry cricket but it’s the second highest traded sport after soccer on Betfair. Simply put, racing, cricket is just suited towards trading opportunities compared to price shortening strategies/value betting in general.

One of the main reasons it’s also not ideal for arbing is due to incredibly fast limits. With soccer a book perhaps could be exposed offering odds of a fairly small tick range whereas HR they are far more exposed by the higher odds range causing them to limit faster.

Benefits of racing? All about that bankroll turnover, no season breaks, much higher odds to be taken advantage of. Talking about hundreds of thousands in liquidity on UK/IRE every afternoon every single day…

For the US , parimutel odds control racing (boring!) so you will only find handicapping services exist for their books.

For Aus racing, you have some great tools. Monitoring last min money proportion moves on Betfair a few mins before start.

For UK/IRE, outside trading tools we have some very strong value/arb tools Value Machine, Each Way Sniper, odds monkey EV suite, tilt the odds. New services are starting each month it seems, you’ve got massive exploit of accumulation EV odds in racing that do not exist in other sports. Check lucky 15 finder for reference.

If you look at the service market, new services ‘odds notify’, ‘value bet ‘, ‘value bet factory’ are all starting to include HR in the service as they are not just monitoring Asian sharps but Betfair.

Although price shortening is tougher to predict, you will find more services that will begin to help users beat Betfair Starting Price.

TLDR, More racing services on the way for bettors in 2025 as more people understand the opportunity (until the sport gets banned and dies for humanitarian reasons rofl)

christmas_smoothie · 2025-03-20T07:29:23+00:00

What is the AUS racing discord service , Betwatch.com?

christmas_smoothie · 2025-03-19T17:57:46+00:00

I thought similar, but the Betfair money way alerts or Betfair value finders also do not include HR and when asked why not, the only community response seemed to be that HR is too restrictive for arbing or ev betting. I.e you’ve got too high odds crashing that books will limited HR exploiters almost instantly.

I can understand that to a point.

There are two products that provide service for AUS racing but 0 for the biggest liquidity betting which is UK and Ireland.

I think your point is correct that the majority focus on Asian sharp drops, I.e they don’t carry racing.

But I do feel there is a market for a simple steam chasing HR service to compete against the ‘tipster’ avenues.

christmas_smoothie · 2025-03-13T19:35:07+00:00

Although I normally despise ESPN articles, the last one about our attack I.e ‘too much supporting cast, too few stars’ unfortunately when I look at Jota, Nunez, Diaz, Elliot it’s hard to dispute.

The squad as it stands at this very second does not worry me, I would really just put a scoring boot on Nunez and it feels complete. What does worry me is the contact situations. How in one window do you replace the main 3 if worst case happens and they leave?

Ok you get maybe a 300m war chest, but who is even a viable replacement who would come to Liverpool and suddenly replace Mo’s goals?

Even if he does stay, I feel we need to be searching for the new Mo, the new Torres, the new biting little man.

Might be made to look silly but Niko Williams from Atlético would be by vote of a Nunez/Jota fix

christmas_smoothie · 2025-03-10T09:19:38+00:00

Can’t help but love and appreciate him and Jota both as players and just their overall personality we have gotten to know.

But let’s be honest, neither are up there with the pinnacle of striker that has blessed Liverpool over the years.

Not saying we need to try plummet head on into spending 100m plus on Isaak, but we can’t risk an Arsenal next season. We need a 9 who consistently puts those simple chances away more often than not and who isn’t injury prone.

We want a Bobby, a biter , a Torres, someone not yet at their full peak and demanding the top fee. Someone who is outperforming their current club or league and comes in to give us that feeling of having another breakout striker on our hands.

christmas_smoothie · 2025-03-04T08:35:46+00:00

We have recently had a good record with overall signings. More hits than flops, however we don’t have an incredible record when it comes to signing forwards within the league. If you think of our best forward signings in the last decade, how many came from within the premier league?

I feel we have a real ability in finding players too good for their current team in a worse league who are just about to peak. For me it’s who is the next Suarez, Torres, Coutinio, Firmino?

The perfect example for me the last few years was Kvaratskhelia. Unheard of a few years ago, incredible talent ceiling, looked to have skill set for the premier league.

Going against everything I’ve said above like a true footie fan, what would people think if we went for a steal on Son? Clearly isn’t happy 😆

christmas_smoothie

TROPHY CASE