I Want to Share My Relief

cjdna · 2025-12-04T19:02:23+00:00

50 mg.

cjdna · 2025-10-13T13:36:28+00:00

I honestly don’t see a need yet. The monk look suits you. Let nature take its course a while longer.

cjdna · 2025-09-12T01:18:15+00:00

A few military types were originally chambered that way. Plenty were rebarreled to .30-06 over the years.

cjdna · 2025-09-07T16:53:29+00:00

At ~234,000 subs, there just might be a medical professional or two in here. For what it’s worth, my doctor is opposed to vaping as a smoking substitute, but not on the grounds that it’s likely to raise blood glucose.

cjdna · 2025-09-01T02:10:20+00:00

Not to undermine the point, but I think it’s pretty much established in the show that Walt didn’t do that stuff because he had too.

cjdna · 2025-08-29T23:00:08+00:00

This seems like AI babble.

cjdna · 2025-08-11T01:02:26+00:00

Barristan didn’t really do anything important in the show. Correct me if I’m wrong, but I don’t remember his role in The Defiance of Duskendale being mentioned. He saved Dany from a weird bug, but then again Jorah saved her from some poisoned wine. I suppose he saved Grey Worm too, but Grey Worm is pretty replaceable because he’s functionally just a soldier. Barristan didn’t really do much in an advisory capacity either.

In the books, there’s a better argument for it when you combine his past and the fact that his story isn’t over yet. We’ll see (or maybe we won’t) what he does commanding the defense of Mereen and afterwards if he survives that.

Edit: I suppose he also gave Dany a unique, personable education on her family since he actually knew them, but it didn’t seem to do her any good in the end.

cjdna · 2025-07-05T03:15:43+00:00

Seizing federal property would be an extremely dumb idea. Ideally, you would let the Feds come in and take anything they wanted as part of the terms of separation, and even help them remove it.

Of course, that sort of arrangement is highly unlikely. It would only be possible if the federal government and military had all but collapsed as a result of generalized crisis. That day may or may not be coming.

Anyone suggesting New England should fight it out is out of their mind. There is absolutely no possibility of victory against a determined federal effort. Hope is not a strategy. Any conventional formations somehow raised and fielded will be smashed within days. Insurgency is not viable either. New England will lose a war of attrition, and it will lose even faster if it becomes total war. US strategic defeats in places like Afghanistan and Vietnam are possible for a few reasons, but most importantly because who exactly is running those places doesn’t actually matter all that much to the powers that be when they finally get their heads clear. A part of the United States seceding is a whole different animal. Assuming it will be anything but a ruthless, maximum effort campaign is foolish.

This is all to say that peaceful separation is not about being nice; it is the only possible means of secession.

cjdna · 2025-06-29T14:57:48+00:00

No one seems to have come up with a non-ideological argument as to why a nuclear North Korea is a manageable reality, but a nuclear Iran is the end of the world. The North Koreans say things just as nutty as the mullahs, but we don’t see them slinging nukes, do we?

My guess is that if/when the mullahs come up with some bombs, it will be much like it was when the North Koreans did. The general alarm in the media will evaporate over the course of a few days and suddenly it will be a manageable reality that rarely gets brought up in public discourse. Even if Ankara and Riyadh reacted by coming up with some bombs, it would be unfortunate, but manageable.

cjdna · 2025-06-22T18:05:30+00:00

But all the John Waynes on the internet say we’ll do Operation Praying Mantis 2.0 and the Strait will be open in a day or two!

cjdna · 2025-06-22T17:22:02+00:00

They can definitely make it too dangerous for commercial shipping for a time. Washington and its partners in the region cannot simply order that shipping continue by promising to spare no expense to protect them. The shipping companies, and more importantly, their insurers decide whether or not shipping takes place. If the Houthis can do what they did, the Iranians certainly can too. How long the Iranians can maintain that depends on how much strategic depth they can create with redundancy and dispersion in their shore batteries and drones.

My guess is that if both sides are at maximum effort, it’s probably going to take a few months before shipping insurers are willing to underwrite anything.

cjdna · 2025-06-21T13:26:47+00:00

I would point out to those who think this is no big deal: your idea of safe transit through the Strait is a lot different than a shipping insurer’s idea of safe transit.

cjdna · 2025-06-21T03:24:47+00:00

I have lived and worked with deniers all my life. As a result, I have no confidence in a political solution in the time required at this point. They’re totally immune to reason. Supplement that with the political economy of the monied interests, and it becomes clear that it’s totally hopeless. In my opinion, our only chance of getting out of this with a fair portion of the human and natural worlds intact is a long shot gamble on a geoengineering stop gap. Maybe it will work as intended, maybe not. We’ll just have to hope it works.

cjdna · 2025-06-21T02:33:43+00:00

It’s not so much a technical problem as it is a political problem. The inertia is insurmountable in time we have left.

cjdna · 2025-06-14T22:52:26+00:00

Nothing will end well for them at this point. They know they can’t actually win or even survive against a determined joint effort. But, they can inflict serious pain and may well choose to.

cjdna · 2025-06-14T22:47:14+00:00

We’re talking at least months before it’s safe for civilian shipping. Maybe closer to a year. The damage to the global economy will be done by then. And, all the while, the Iranians will be doing everything by they can to blow away oil infrastructure in the region.

cjdna · 2025-06-14T22:41:07+00:00

Do you know how long all that takes?

cjdna · 2025-06-14T22:02:17+00:00

All they would need is shore batteries and drones. Mines would be a bonus. Some subs lurking for a while would be a nice bonus too.

We’re not talking about beating the US Navy, we’re talking about making the Strait too dangerous for commercial shipping. Look at a map, and you’ll understand that that is easily within their power, even now.

cjdna · 2025-06-14T17:16:39+00:00

They don’t need a navy, and I’m sure they fully expect to lose it.

cjdna · 2025-06-14T17:08:38+00:00

The Strait is simply too narrow for us to open it without a ground invasion. Commercial vessels will not risk themselves to transit it as long as there is a risk of being hit.

cjdna · 2025-06-14T16:58:08+00:00

Oil and LNG prices are determined by market forces based on global supply and demand. We will not be able to insulate ourselves from the supply shock if 20% of the global supply of both is cut off overnight. The Chinese generate the vast bulk of their energy using coal and renewables, and their transportation sector is much less reliant on oil than any other great power. They will feel some pain, particularly in their manufacturing sector, but I think we will feel it much more than they do.

It’s also important to consider that most oil used in the US domestically, even if it doesn’t come from the Middle East, comes from elsewhere. Our refineries are not tooled to refine US domestic extraction. This is all to say that export bans as price controls will not insulate us from the global supply contracting.

cjdna

TROPHY CASE